On Jan. 24, the Yemeni government issued a statement claiming that Said al Shihri, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula’s deputy emir, had died “after succumbing to wounds received in a counter terrorism operation” late last year. The report came after a “prominent jihadist” as well as family members and a journalist close to AQAP also stated that al Shihri, a former Guantanamo Bay detainee, was killed.
But now reports are emerging that al Shihri may in fact be alive. These reports are unconfirmed, and al Shihri’s status is still up in the air.
Just four days ago, the Al Malahem Foundation, AQAP’s official propaganda outlet, released a banner “announcing a forthcoming audio message from Shihri,” the SITE Intelligence Group told The Long War Journal.
“It [the banner] says: Coming Soon, Allah Permitting: An Audio Speech by Sheikh Abu Sufyan al-Azdi – Saeed al-Shahri – May Allah Preserve Him,” SITE told LWJ.
The phrase “May Allah Preserve Him” is an indication that al Shihri may be alive. Al Qaeda typically says “may Allah have mercy on him” if a leader or fighter has been killed.
(AQAP has released the tape since the publishing of this post. In the Tape, al Shihri makes no reference to reports of his death.)
Some other things to consider on the status of al Shihri are reports in the press.
First, on March 13, two jihadists, one identified at “Mutabasr” and another as “Fukku al-‘Aani,” released statements on jihadist forums claiming that al Shihri was indeed alive. Mutabasr is a representative of AQAP cleric Abu Sa’ad al ‘Amili (more on him later), SITE told LWJ.
Second, on March 27, AQAP released a video that included footage of al Shihri. There was no indication that al Shihri was dead or alive.
Third, a report yesterday from the Associated Press claimed that “Al Qaeda in Yemen [sic] posted a statement on militant websites Monday saying that its second-most senior commander has not been killed. It was the second time the group has denied Said al Shihri’s death.”
The AP report continued: “The Saudi national, who fought in Afghanistan and spent six years in the U.S. military prison at Guantanamo Bay, is ‘alive and in good health,’ according to a senior al Qaeda cleric in Yemen and the group’s media arm, Al Malahem. The cleric, Abu Sa’ad al Amili, posted the claim on his Facebook account.”
There are several problems with the AP report, however:
- As SITE told LWJ, Al Malahem did not release an official statement yesterday stating that al Shihri is alive, it merely released the banner on April 5 announcing the audiotape, as noted above. According to SITE, that was the last official item posted by Al Malahem.
- SITE also told LWJ that Abu Sa’ad al Amili “is a prominent figure in the jihadist forum community, but he’s not authorized to speak on AQAP’s behalf.”
- This is not, as AP claims, the second time Al Malahem has “denied Said al Shihri’s death.” The propaganda group has in fact never issued an official statement denying his death. LWJ confirmed this with SITE, which stated that “AQAP has not released an official statement about Shihri.”
So, AP may be conflating statements made by jihadists, and the banner released by Al Malathem, with official statements by AQAP.
Fourth, and you can take it for what it is worth, a senior US intelligence official who tracks al Qaeda told LWJ last week (before the banner was released by Al Malahem) that al Shihri may in fact be alive.
Fifth, at least one time, As Sahab, al Qaeda’s propaganda arm, referred to a leader who was dead as alive (Atiyah Abd al Rahman). Shortly after he was killed, As Sahab released a tape addressing Atiyah with “may Allah protect him.” In that case, it is likely that As Sahab had already distributed the tape and may have been unaware of Atiyah’s status (the tape was released within a week of the report of his death).
Finally, the confusion over the status of al Shihri merely confirms what we at LWJ have stated for years: Without a corpse and the ability to confirm the identity of said corpse, it is nearly impossible to know for certain whether an al Qaeda leader or operative is dead or alive. Al Qaeda martyrdom statements are the next best thing, as I’ve yet to detect them lying about the death of a top leader via a martyrdom statement. For more on this subject, see this report on the confusion over the status of Atiyah Abd al Rahman (who was later determined to be dead).
If you want to know what we think about the status of al Shihri is, the answer is, we just don’t know. We wouldn’t be surprised if he is alive or dead. There is just too much conflicting information about his status out there at the moment, and he’s been reported dead and has come back to disprove his death so many times that he may as well be a vampire. Without sticking a stake in his heart, cutting off his head, and exposing him to sunlight, we just can’t be certain.
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8 Comments
Adam, I saw this about an hour after publishing, and am awaiting the full translation. According to France 24, he makes no reference of his death. I’d expect him to at the least address that, as he has in the past.
He refers to events that took place AFTER his reported death. That’s close enough.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2013/04/10/yemen-terrorist-shihri–al-qaeda/2070539/
Thanks for posting the article. Much appreciated.
Adam, Even that isn’t fully clear. This is SITE’s interpretation:
“While Shahri didn’t comment on his reported death like he did previously, he noted a counter-terrorism conference having been held in Saudi Arabia in the past weeks, possibly referring to the February 16, 2013, conference in Riyadh.”
Very frustrating to say the least.
Adam, to follow that up, the certainty which USA Today claims that AQAP said al Shihri is alive is deceiving. I did my best to lay this out above, AQAP hasn’t come out and said “he’s alive” and neither has al Shihri. We’re being fed some clues.
BTW here is the statement that is being used to claim Shihri is discussion a February CT conference. Certainly open to interpretation, and certainly possible he is referring to the Feb conference:
“After the Arabian Peninsula had been the launch point of the Islamic armies to conquer lands all over
the world, it has become today a place for conferences for fighting Islam in the name of terror, for in it the counter-terrorist conferences are held, the last of which was a few weeks ago, which was managed by the US and in whose service the Arab interior ministers were active, where they met a few days after. And in those meetings, money is amassed to fight the mujahideen in the Cause of Allah…”
But it is by no means a slam dunk.
Thanks for the reply. Non-subscribers aren’t given access to SITE’s analysis of the videos.
Well, here’s a link to an interview with an AQAP “source” who says that Shihri was injured, not killed. He may or may not be reliable.
http://shuaibalmosawa.wordpress.com/2013/04/10/shihri-back-from-the-dead-his-latest-audio-recording-interview-with-aqap-source-on-his-injuries-and-condition/
This scenerio is very unfortunate, but as you’ve pointed out before Bill, when a foreign intelligence service makes the claim of a militant’s death, it must be backed up by US intel or the jihadists themselves before it can be considered fact. In this case unfortunately, the Yemenis have been the only ones to “confirm” Shehri’s death. I admit I believe it still has a good chance of being true. I noted two articles that refered to Shehri’s wife Wafa al-Shehri and how she had been removed from interpol lists. They also stated that authorities knew of her location. I assumed that if that were the case and she appeared to be willing to surrender, her husband would have to in fact be dead. The articles indicate that her surrender had been pending at the time of publication, which was shortly after the reports in late January of Said al-Shehri’s death. Shehri supposedly was fatally wounded back in October/November, so the fact that Wafa would be attempting to surrender before the reports of his death came out, would definitely make sense. One of the articles mentions that the Yemenis know of the location of Shehri’s grave and sent samples to the Saudis for DNA testing. http://www.saudigazette.com.sa/index.cfm?method=home.regcon&contentid=20130204151824 and http://www.arabnews.com/saudi-arabia/wanted-saudi-woman-taken-interpol-list . As of today, the Saudi Interior Ministry website still lists Shehri as alive, so DNA confirmation did not occur. That’s not to say he’s not dead and just hasn’t been found yet. They still list Abu Hafs al-Najdi (Saleh al-Makhlafi), Abu Hafs al-Shehri (Osama al-Shehri), Abdullah Azzam al-Saudi (Mujab al-Zahrani) and others as alive when they have been reported killed by the US in Afghanistan/Pakistan. This is due to the lack of DNA evidence. Anyways, the point is, the key to determining if Shehri is alive I believe would be Wafa al-Shehri. If she does turn herself in, the intelligence obtained from her should answer the question. The fact that the Saudis would remove her from the interpol lists indicates she must have at some point been willing to return home, and I believe that points at her husband’s potential demise.
I think the AP was talking about Shihri denying his death last October in regards to the group denying his death.