US on track to nearly triple airstrike record in Somalia
If the current pace of strikes continues, the US will strike Shabaab 130 times in 2019. Is this a prelude to disengagement?
If the current pace of strikes continues, the US will strike Shabaab 130 times in 2019. Is this a prelude to disengagement?
Shabaab has continued to demonstrate its ability to strike in heavily fortified areas of Mogadishu.
The US military’s air campaign against Shabaab, al Qaeda’s branch in East Africa, continues to intensify. AFRICOM launched five more airstrikes against Shabaab over the weekend.
The two latest strikes took place in a town where Shabaab is dominant. The US air campaign against Shabaab continues to intensify and is on pace to quickly outstrip last year’s strike total.
Since the New Year, US Africa Command has hit Shabaab 14 times. AFRICOM acknowledges that the air campaign is not sufficient to defeat Shabaab, but can only support the Somali government’s efforts.
Shabaab has now assassinated four high-ranking Somali military personnel in the same general vicinity.
The pace of strikes against Shabaab’s network in Somalia has intensified despite reports that the US military is seeking to disengage from the war-torn country.
According to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), al Qaeda’s senior leaders are strengthening the al Qaeda “network’s global command structure.” Meanwhile, the Islamic State “still commands thousands of fighters in Iraq and Syria.” Both groups maintain worldwide networks or affiliates, branches, and supporters.
Bilal Khuraysat, an al Qaeda ideologue in Syria, has released a treatise justifying Shabaab’s war with the Islamic State in Somalia. The Islamic State continues to battle al Qaeda’s branches and like-minded jihadists in several theaters.
A US airstrike reportedly targeted Shabaab militants as they went on the offensive following the deadly terrorist attack in Nairobi.
Shabaab released a two-page statement saying the Jan. 15 attack at a hotel in Nairobi was conducted in accordance with Ayman al Zawahiri’s “guidelines.” The al Qaeda arm has other reasons for striking inside Kenya as well, including the government’s role in the guerrilla war in Somalia.
The jihadist group continues to launch large-scale attacks inside Kenyan territory.
With Shabaab continuing to target ISS members and pro-ISS members within its own ranks, it is unlikely Fiile will be the last commander to be killed by the al Qaeda branch.
US counterterrorism operations against al Qaeda’s branch in Somalia shows no signs of slowing down despite a report last week that said the Pentagon plans to reduce its role there. The US has launched four strikes against Shabaab during the first week of 2019.
The Islamic State’s loyalists claimed more operations in Somalia in 2018 than in 2016 and 2017 combined. The group has also expanded its operations to include tactics normally associated with its larger rival, Shabaab.
The Islamic State released its first video footage of a clash with Shabaab, al Qaeda’s branch in Somalia and East Africa.
The strikes were launched to “prevent terrorists from using remote areas as a safe haven to plot, direct, inspire, and recruit for future attacks,” AFRICOM noted.
The Islamic State claims to have killed 14 members of Shabaab, al Qaeda’s arm in Somalia.
The last three strikes against Shabaab have taken place in an area where foreign al Qaeda fighters have historically sheltered. AFRICOM has targeted Shabaab 40 times throughout Somalia in 2018.
Shabaab killed two Somali generals who were leading a military offensive against the group in the Lower Shabelle region, south of Mogadishu.
The US military has launched six airstrikes in the central Somali province of Mudug since Nov. 19, killing at least 55 Shabaab fighters.
The US military is clearly targeting Shabaab in Mudug province. There have been five strikes there in the past four days and 50 Shabaab fighters are reported to have been killed in the attacks.
The pattern of the strikes, which took place in central Somalia, indicates that al Qaeda’s branch in East Africa either has an established base in the area, or that it was massing its fighters for a large scale attack.
The Islamic State warns Shabaab that it will respond to the group’s campaign targeting Abu Bakr al Baghdadi’s loyalists in Somalia. Shabaab has been executing and arresting defectors who join the Islamic State since 2015. But the al Qaeda branch has stepped up its anti-Islamic State operations again in recent weeks.
Much like other assaults on popular hotels, restaurants, or various targets inside Mogadishu, Shabaab was quick to claim credit for the operation on social media.
Kunyo Barrow, where the most recent strike took place, is located in the Jubba River Valley, a stronghold of the al Qaeda affiliate.
A large concentration of Shabaab fighters a significant distance from its typical support zone in Jubba River Valley demonstrates the Al Qaeda affiliate’s resilience across Somalia.
This is the third time in the past month that US forces have conducted defensive airstrikes following Shabaab attacks.
Shabaab, al Qaeda’s branch in East Africa, has executed a number of alleged spies this week. The group accused them of working for American, British and Somali intelligence. At least some of Shabaab’s claims are dubious, however.
As JNIM rallies its members and supporters against France and Mali, it depicts the fight with the two countries as part of al Qaeda’s wider global jihad.