Amid rising tensions with the US, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has increased its military presence in the Persian Gulf. Over recent months, Iran has intensified exercises on islands located along a vital maritime corridor for global energy transit. Over one-fifth of the world’s oil passes through the Persian Gulf, making it a key geopolitical hotspot.
US military bases in the Persian Gulf confront two challenges, one military and the other political. FDD’s Ryan Brobst, Bradley Bowman, and Behnam Ben Taleblu survey the two challenges and propose a way to address them.
Bill and Behnam unpack the details they’ve been able to gather so far surrounding the U.S. and UK-led coalition strikes against Houthi targets inside Yemen and discuss whether this will restore deterrence. Accurate preview courtesy of Behnam: “We like to say ‘freaky Fridays’ here [we do not] — it can’t get freakier than the first-ever, historic use of force since October 7 by the U.S. and UK against the Houthis.”
Should Iran have taken the decision to attack civilian vessels that carry oil, it could represent one way to do damage to global oil shipments without inviting massive retaliation. Such a move would be consistent with Iran’s highly graduated approach to escalation and desire to respond to the Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign.