A review of the new Lebanese government’s policy statement reveals some positive changes from the positions of previous governments regarding the official posture on Hezbollah and its arms. Nevertheless, the statement contains subtle but significant loopholes that Hezbollah can exploit to ensure its survival and eventual regeneration.
A comparison of actions by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) in Lebanon after the ceasefire on November 27, 2024, demonstrates that the Lebanese have not taken significant action against Hezbollah.
Israel assassinated Khodr Hashem, the commander of Hezbollah’s Radwan Force’s seaborn forces, in south Lebanon. Hashem was involved in armed activities and maritime weapons smuggling to Hezbollah before and after the November 27, 2024, Lebanon-Israel ceasefire agreement, activities which constituted a violation of the deal.
Israel faces continued threats in Lebanon despite the recent ceasefire, which approaches the important milestone of its first 60 days. On January 13, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) carried out strikes on several Hezbollah targets, “including a rocket launcher site, a military site, and routes along the Syria-Lebanon border used to smuggle weapons to Hezbollah.” Israeli troops also continued searching for weapons and dismantling terrorist infrastructure in southern Lebanon.
Lebanon did not thoroughly inspect a Mahan Air Flight suspected of carrying funds for Hezbollah. It engaged in an act of theater to deny Israel justification to resume fighting the group in light of Beirut’s failure to implement its obligations under the November 27, 2024, ceasefire agreement.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) continue to search for and uncover Hezbollah munitions and terrorist infrastructure in southern Lebanon. IDF forces found weapons, explosives, and a tunnel in the fourth week of December. Israel is aiming to fulfill its mission against these threats before troops withdraw from southern Lebanon over the next three weeks in compliance with the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire. Hezbollah has warned that it will respond to Israel if the ceasefire’s terms are violated.
Israeli Minister of Defense Israel Katz went to southern Lebanon on December 22 and vowed that Hezbollah would not be permitted to return to the border area. He met with the commanders of the IDF’s 91st Division and 188th Armored Brigade. The 188th has continued to uncover terrorist infrastructure and weapons in southern Lebanon.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) carried out strikes against Hezbollah on December 2, five days after a ceasefire began on November 27. Hezbollah launched mortars toward Mount Dov in northern Israel. The IDF has carried out daily strikes on Hezbollah, including the group’s rocket launchers and vehicles, since the ceasefire, accusing the group of violating the terms of the agreement.