In his first speech after Assad’s downfall, Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem completely reversed the organization’s position on the Syrian dictator’s removal. Qassem extended an olive branch to groups that, the week prior, he described as takfiri agents of Israel. He also insisted Hezbollah’s position in Lebanon would remain unchanged.
The IDF’s 98th Division completed its mission in Lebanon after operating against Hezbollah for two months in October and November. The IDF said the division is preparing for its next mission in the Gaza Strip. Other Israeli units in southern Lebanon continue to uncover Hezbollah tunnels and munitions as the ceasefire continues between Israel and Lebanon.
Lebanon and the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) cannot be counted upon to restrain Hezbollah. Beirut continues to demonstrate a lack of will to act against the group—and the more time that passes, the more difficult Hezbollah will become to rein in or disarm.
Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem gave two speeches after the November 27 ceasefire that discussed Hezbollah’s next steps. In his first, he didn’t mention Hezbollah’s withdrawal from south of the Litani River. However, he made an about-face in his second speech, perhaps under Israeli military pressure and due to the situation in Syria. Qassem also discussed cooperating with the Lebanese government to reconstruct areas damaged during the war.
Israeli Minister of Defense Israel Katz met with Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Chief of the General Staff Herzi Halevi on December 5 as the situation in Syria shifts rapidly. “The IDF monitors developments and is prepared for all scenarios, offensive and defensive alike. The IDF will not tolerate threats near the Lebanon-Syria border and will thwart any threat against the State of Israel,” the IDF said in a statement. It is the second high-level meeting Israel has had in the wake of the Syrian regime losing ground to opposition forces. At the same time, the IDF continues to operate in southern Lebanon.
Just a year ago, the Islamic Republic was on the offensive as it used its proxies to launch coordinated attacks on Israel from six fronts to demonstrate the extent of its regional influence. Now, the momentum has shifted. Israeli operations have severely weakened Hamas and Hezbollah, Syrian rebels backed by Turkey wage a relentless war against Assad, and the United States targets Iranian-backed militia bases across Syria.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) carried out strikes against Hezbollah on December 2, five days after a ceasefire began on November 27. Hezbollah launched mortars toward Mount Dov in northern Israel. The IDF has carried out daily strikes on Hezbollah, including the group’s rocket launchers and vehicles, since the ceasefire, accusing the group of violating the terms of the agreement.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) eliminated an estimated 2,500 Hezbollah members during two months of fighting that ended with a ceasefire on November 27. The ceasefire has essentially held over the first five days despite accusations of violations, and IDF Home Front Command changed guidelines, enabling Israelis to return to normal activity in all areas of the country except near the border with Lebanon. The IDF continued to call on Lebanese civilians not to return to areas close to the border, and commanders said the Israeli military would enforce the ceasefire “forcefully.”
Israel agreed to a ceasefire on November 27 that ended the current fighting with Hezbollah. The agreement calls for Israel to conduct a phased withdrawal from southern Lebanon within the next 60 days. “The Government of Lebanon will prevent Hezbollah and all other armed groups in the territory of Lebanon from carrying out any operations against Israel, and Israel will not carry out any offensive military operations against Lebanese targets,” the ceasefire said. “The fundamental test of the ceasefire agreement taking shape along the Israel-Lebanon border will be in its full implementation, ensuring the security of all residents of the north of Israel,” Israeli President Isaac Herzog noted.
With Israel and Hamas having reached a ceasefire agreement, the rhetoric coming from Tehran is far from de-escalatory. Military and civilian officials within the Islamic Republic continue to underscore their commitment to rebuilding Hezbollah’s capabilities and have reiterated threats of launching a third phase of the “True Promise” operation against Israel.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) carried out several rounds of airstrikes against Hezbollah targets in Beirut on November 26 ahead of a possible ceasefire expected to take effect on November 27. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu promised Israelis that “we will achieve victory” and said the ceasefire would enable the IDF to “maintain full freedom of military action” if Hezbollah seeks to re-arm or return to threaten Israel near the border. Israeli units continued limited operations in southern Lebanon.
Hezbollah launched numerous barrages of rockets at Israel on November 26 as reports in Israel indicated a possible ceasefire might be agreed to this week. The IDF focused its attacks on Hezbollah’s weapons smuggling networks that stretch into Syria and are backed by Iran. In addition, the IDF showed off some of the vehicles and Iranian weapons it has seized in Lebanon.
Hezbollah launched numerous attacks on Israel on November 24 from the morning until the evening. The attacks included the use of long-range rockets targeting central Israel, and drones and shorter-range rockets targeting northern Israel. Rockets struck buildings in the Galilee, Haifa, and Petah Tikva northeast of Tel Aviv.
On November 21, the Israeli military said it conducted three rounds of strikes that were “directed toward Hezbollah terrorist infrastructure and are part of the IDF’s efforts to dismantle Hezbollah’s weapons production and storage capabilities.” IDF Chief of the General Staff Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi visited the 98th Division in Lebanon and discussed the importance Israel places on returning evacuated civilians to border communities. A clash near an archaeological site led to the death of a 71-year-old Israeli researcher who was also a major in the reserves.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) expanded operations in Lebanon, committing several new units to the battle against Hezbollah and moving artillery into the country for the first time. In southern Lebanon, the IDF found rocket launchers with rockets ready to launch. Israel also increased precision airstrikes in Beirut, targeting terrorist infrastructure and eliminating Hezbollah spokesperson Mohammad Afif.
Israel’s recent kidnapping of a Lebanese naval officer, allegedly a senior official in Hezbollah’s small, elite naval unit, may have as much to do with disrupting Iranian attempts to resupply Hezbollah’s degraded arsenal by sea as it does with learning more about the secretive unit’s fighting capabilities.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) released the names of six soldiers from the 51st Battalion of the Golani Infantry Brigade who were killed in southern Lebanon on November 13. The same battalion suffered heavy losses during Hamas’s attack on October 7, 2023. Hezbollah carried out attacks targeting central Israel on November 13, and Israel intercepted drones aimed at southern Israel on November 12 and 13. In addition, the Israeli Navy targeted a Hezbollah naval site.
On November 12, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said the Israeli Air Force has “dismantled a majority of Hezbollah’s weapons storage and missile manufacturing facilities located under the Dahieh district” of Beirut. In southern Lebanon, the IDF found an underground compound and dismantled it by pouring concrete into its bunkers and tunnels. Hezbollah launched around 200 projectiles and numerous drone attacks on Israel on November 11.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) uncovered a Hezbollah training site near a United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) base, the IDF said on November 8. The IDF also carried out airstrikes on Hezbollah terrorists in Baalbek in eastern Lebanon. Hezbollah fired around 400 rockets at Israel between November 5 and November 8, including long-range rockets that reached central Israel.
Naim Qassem delivered his second speech as Hezbollah’s secretary-general on the 40th day since Hassan Nasrallah’s passing. Qassem repeated many of the themes and claims from his previous speeches and stressed that Hezbollah will continue fighting.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu removed Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant from office on November 5 after months of tension between the two men. The move comes as the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) continues to operate in Lebanon against Hezbollah, and Israel faces threats on multiple fronts. In Gaza, the IDF has eliminated approximately 1,000 terrorists and cleared a large area of northern Gaza of Hamas members.
Israel has focused on degrading Hezbollah’s Unit 4400, which is tasked with supplying the group with weapons and funds. Israel’s spate of attacks has impacted the unit’s ability to function and Hezbollah’s battle-readiness during the current campaign. However, it remains too soon to determine the long-term impact on Hezbollah’s organizational integrity.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducted airstrikes targeting sites belonging to Hezbollah’s intelligence headquarters in Syria.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) downed seven drones between October 31 and November 1, including five launched from Iraq. On November 4, the IDF intercepted four drones launched from Lebanon and Iraq. Hezbollah fired more than 100 rockets and drones per day at Israel on November 2 and November 3, and the IDF struck several key Hezbollah commanders in southern Lebanon.
On October 30, Naim Qassem delivered his first speech as Hezbollah’s new secretary-general. Qassem stressed his intention to continue in Nasrallah’s footsteps and that Hezbollah would continue its war with Israel until a ceasefire was reached on the group’s terms.
Seven Israelis were killed by Hezbollah rocket fire on October 31: five people in an agricultural area near Metula in northern Israel and two others while harvesting olives near Haifa. The IDF carried out airstrikes in Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah’s command and control and weapons storage facilities.
Four Israel Defense Forces (IDF) divisions continued operations in southern Lebanon between October 27 and 29. The IDF found one Hezbollah facility that was 24 feet underground, while another stretched for more than a mile underground and “included food supplies, beds, storage cabinets, electrical power, and an arsenal of weapons.” The IDF also captured several Hezbollah members, including the commander of a local village.
Hezbollah rocket fire struck a United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) compound in Naqoura, Lebanon, wounding eight Austrian peacekeepers.
Naim Qassem became Hezbollah’s new secretary-general on October 29. His last speech as the group’s deputy secretary-general, given two weeks earlier, indicates that Nasrallah’s successor intends to continue in his predecessor’s confrontational path.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) completed an operation in the Kamal Adwan Hospital in northern Gaza’s Jabaliya. During the raid, the Israeli military found weapons and detained 100 suspected terrorists. This is the third time the IDF has operated in Jabaliya to clear it of terrorists, and the second time it has raided the hospital and detained suspected militants.