Eight Tajik nationals with ties to the Islamic State in Khorasan Province (ISKP) were recently arrested in major US cities after illegally crossing the Mexican border as early as 2023. The arrests underscore the resurgence of the ISKP after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and may indicate terrorist groups are seeking to exploit America’s border crisis to stage attacks.
Leveraging its stronghold in Afghanistan and networks across Central and South Asia, ISKP is surging as a formidable transnational actor, posing a threat from Asia to Europe. The Taliban’s self-portrayal as a counterforce to ISKP raises concerns about their true motives and the perpetuation of regional instability.
Afghanistan has grappled with a surge in terrorism, deepening ethnic rifts, protests, and the devastating impact of natural calamities in recent weeks. Two years into their control of Afghanistan, the Taliban is struggling to govern as a state actor.
While ISKP claimed responsibility for the Kerman twin suicide bombings, Iranian state media and officials are downplaying the Afghanistan connection and are instead pointing fingers at Israel. Despite internal crackdowns and heightened security measures, Iran treads carefully to avoid straining relations with the Taliban amid escalating tensions in the region.
The U.S. military continues to recycle stale estimates of Al Qaeda’s strength in Afghanistan, and elevate the Islamic State as a greater threat.
Sanaullah Ghafar, who is also known as Shabab al-Muhajir, has been identified as an “ambitious new leader” of the Islamic State Khorasan Province. His challenge is to hold off the vastly superior Taliban, which controls Afghanistan.
The Taliban has the advantage in all of the key areas, save one. The Taliban has state sponsors, terrorist allies, regional support, a marked superiority in weapons and numbers, and controls all of Afghanistan. ISKP can only match the Taliban in one area, and this the will to fight and persevere.
The Islamic State’s Afghan arm detonated three improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in Kabul earlier today. The first bomb struck a bus carrying civilians, while the second two were detonated after security forces and journalists made their way to the scene.
According to a State Department report published this week, the Taliban continues “to assassinate and threaten religious leaders with death for preaching messages contrary to” its “interpretation of Islam or its political agenda.” As part of its widespread assassination campaign, Taliban gunmen have been killing “imams and other religious officials throughout the country.”