Analysis: Iran reacts to Israel’s direct retaliation
As Iran attempts to save face following Israel’s recent military strike, conflicting narratives about the imperative to respond are coming to the fore.
As Iran attempts to save face following Israel’s recent military strike, conflicting narratives about the imperative to respond are coming to the fore.
Israeli fighter jets carried out airstrikes against military bases in Iran as a direct response to Iran’s ballistic missile attack on Israel on October 1. Waves of strikes eliminated radar and air defenses, followed by missile and drone bases, including production sites.
While the United States is focused on the election, the domestic terrorism warning signs are still blinking red. Over the last few months, the Department of Justice has indicted another Islamic State terrorist and uncovered an Iranian assassination plot against former President Donald Trump.
The Houthis in Yemen have an extensive leadership hierarchy. FDD’s Long War Journal lists some of the leaders of the organization, their roles, and if they have been sanctioned by the United States government.
Jaish al-Adl claimed responsibility for twin attacks in Iran’s Sistan and Baluchistan province that killed IRGC members and local law enforcement personnel. The separatist group has intensified its attacks against regime targets recently, with one previous wave occurring in three cities.
The Israeli military and Hezbollah have both acknowledged the death of Hassan Nasrallah following an Israeli airstrike in Beirut on Friday.
The Islamic Republic has scaled back its rhetoric against Israel by exercising “strategic ambiguity” and “tactical retreat” while claiming that “time is on [Tehran’s] side.” Israel’s ongoing onslaught against Iran-backed groups in Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon suggests otherwise.
Iran’s regime arrested dozens of intelligence officers who may have been responsible for the security breach that led to Haniyeh’s assassination. The IRGC’s sole control over the investigation into the incident and the regime’s contradictory reporting further demonstrate various parties are intentionally crafting differing narratives to deflect blame and avoid being seen as incompetent.
Evidence of foreign fighters operating in southern Lebanon continues to mount as the Israeli military recently killed three Syrian members of Islamic Jihad.
Violent explosions hit the Kalsu base in Iraq, amid speculation of Israeli involvement; no party has claimed responsibility. Recent attacks on US soldiers in Syria and Iraq, after a hiatus, may signal a resurgence of violence against US presence, as Iraqi factions debate approaches towards US withdrawal.
The Islamic Republic’s disorganized messaging on Israel tensions reflects its fear of public backlash, revealing internal coordination gaps and anxiety over criticism
Israel killed a senior IRGC officer in Syria. Iran, and possibly Hezbollah will avenge him – but without undermining their broader objective of rescuing Hamas and its partners in Gaza.
Tehran is threatening new attacks in the Middle East after the April 1 Israeli airstrike in Damascus that killed the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander responsible for smuggling weapons to Lebanon. Analysis of Iranian-backed attacks and U.S. responses in recent months makes clear that a U.S. failure to hit back hard will simply invite more Iranian attacks and risk more American casualties.
Iran acknowledged the deaths of senior IRGC officers in a significant airstrike against its forces in the Syrian capital.
Evidence has emerged demonstrating that foreign fighters are operating in Lebanon against Israel.
Israel continues to attack IRGC advisor in Syria on almost a monthly base.
It is unclear if the U.S. response is retaliatory in nature, or if the strikes are designed to force Iran to get its proxy terror militias to cease their attacks.
Israel revealed the existence of Hezbollah’s airstrip back in September. Information available at the time indicated Hezbollah would use it to launch drones to attack Israel. When the group did so last Wednesday, Israel bombed the airstrip.
U.S. forces hit “headquarters, storage, and training locations for rocket, missile, and one-way attack UAV capabilities,” according to CENTCOM. The strike is the eight against the Iranian-backed militias, which have hit U.S. bases more than 150 times since Hamas attacks Israel in October 2023.
An airstrike in the Syrian capital of Damascus killed five IRGC military advisors, including General Sadegh Omidzadeh. The strike is the second against Iranian advisors in Syria in the past four weeks.
As the Houthis defy the international coalition thatis struggling to keep the Red Sea open to commercial shipping, the Iranians launched a ballistic missile strike on what it claimed was Israeli intelligence assets in Irbil, Iraq.
The Houthis have launched three strikes, including one against a U.S. warship, since the U.S. and U.K. attacked Houthi military targets on Jan. 11 in an effort to restore deterrence. The Houthis have not been deterred.
Today’s strike is the first to target a commander of the Iranian-backed militias. Abu Taqwa Al Si’adi was a commander in the Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba, a U.S.-designated terror organization.
Iraq’s Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al Sudani also denounced militia attacks on U.S. forces, however he is powerless to stop them. The Iranian-backed militias report to Sudani, but do not follow his orders. They are loyal to Iran.
Iran has described Razi Mousavi as “a veteran advisor of Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps” and a one of “the companions of the assassinated general Qassem Soleimani.”
The U.S. announces the formation of Operation Prosperity Guardian as Houthi attacks have ground international shipping transiting the Red Sea through the Suez Canal to a halt as multiple shippers are now bypassing the dangerous waterway. It is unclear if the operation will be offensive or defensive in nature.
A Norwegian tanker was hit with a cruise missile, while a French warship shot down two drones that “came straight at” it. The Houthis have vowed to continue to attack all international ships that enter or leave Israeli ports.
Three members of Lebanese Hezbollah, including a pro-Assad fighter have been killed by a reported Israeli airstrike in southern Syria. One of the Hezbollah members killed is Hassan Ali Daqduq, son of infamous Hebzollah commander Ali Musa Daqduq.
The anti-ship ballistic missiles, which were fired by the Houthis after a U.S. warship foiled a hijacking in the Gulf of Aden, missed their mark. The U.S. military has not responded to the attack.
The Houthis boarded and seized the Israeli-linked Galaxy Leader cargo ship on November 19, taking 25 crewmembers captive. This piracy, which follows recent Houthi attacks against Israel, is part of a larger strategy by Iran to undermine maritime security and American interests while attempting to encircle, attack, and exhaust Israel.