Four years after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, the threat posed by the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) has expanded beyond the region, now endangering both America and Europe. With the group actively recruiting and transferring fighters across borders, regional actors such as the Taliban, Iran, Tajikistan, and Pakistan have proven unable to curb its growth.
Iran’s intelligence network is not a monolithic entity but a web of competing and cooperating factions that execute the regime’s global ambitions. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Quds Force, and Ministry of Intelligence each play distinct yet overlapping roles in conducting assassinations, abductions, and sabotage operations worldwide. While institutional rivalries persist, their shared objective—suppressing dissent and expanding Iran’s geopolitical reach—ensures continued collaboration.
Bill is joined by show regular Edmund Fitton-Brown to discuss Edmund’s latest analysis for FDD’s Long War Journal: The role of Iraqi Shia militias as proxies in Iran’s Axis of Resistance.
The Tehran regime faces significant challenges, including the diminished influence of its regional proxies and the potential for an Israeli strike on its nuclear facilities. In response, the Islamic Republic has devised a three-pronged strategy: bolstering morale through propaganda, conducting extensive military drills as a deterrent, and amplifying support for its remaining proxies.
US law enforcement agencies have apprehended or charged 11 individuals involved in plots supporting the Islamic State or Iran since October 8, underscoring both US adversaries’ continued determination to kill Americans at home and abroad.
The sudden collapse of the Islamic Republic’s closest state-actor ally stunned the world as Syrian rebels captured Damascus in just 11 days after launching a new wave of insurgency. To deflect this humiliating defeat, Iranian officials have claimed that the Tehran-Damascus alliance had been weakening and that Iran no longer aimed to preserve the Assad dynasty. However, leaks from Tehran and insights into Iranian regional strategy tell a different story: Iran was incapable of safeguarding the Syrian regime, and its collapse has sparked internal divisions among Iranian officials.
The Islamic Republic has accelerated its intelligence operations in Israel, with at least five spy rings uncovered in October alone. Between October 14 and 31, Israeli authorities arrested some 20 individuals who were operating on behalf of Iran. Led by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence (MOI), Tehran’s multifaceted espionage strategy in Israel employs cyber warfare and direct human intelligence engagement.
As Iran attempts to save face following Israel’s recent military strike, conflicting narratives about the imperative to respond are coming to the fore.
Israeli fighter jets carried out airstrikes against military bases in Iran as a direct response to Iran’s ballistic missile attack on Israel on October 1. Waves of strikes eliminated radar and air defenses, followed by missile and drone bases, including production sites.
While the United States is focused on the election, the domestic terrorism warning signs are still blinking red. Over the last few months, the Department of Justice has indicted another Islamic State terrorist and uncovered an Iranian assassination plot against former President Donald Trump.
The Houthis in Yemen have an extensive leadership hierarchy. FDD’s Long War Journal lists some of the leaders of the organization, their roles, and if they have been sanctioned by the United States government.
Jaish al-Adl claimed responsibility for twin attacks in Iran’s Sistan and Baluchistan province that killed IRGC members and local law enforcement personnel. The separatist group has intensified its attacks against regime targets recently, with one previous wave occurring in three cities.
The Israeli military and Hezbollah have both acknowledged the death of Hassan Nasrallah following an Israeli airstrike in Beirut on Friday.
The Islamic Republic has scaled back its rhetoric against Israel by exercising “strategic ambiguity” and “tactical retreat” while claiming that “time is on [Tehran’s] side.” Israel’s ongoing onslaught against Iran-backed groups in Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon suggests otherwise.
Iran’s regime arrested dozens of intelligence officers who may have been responsible for the security breach that led to Haniyeh’s assassination. The IRGC’s sole control over the investigation into the incident and the regime’s contradictory reporting further demonstrate various parties are intentionally crafting differing narratives to deflect blame and avoid being seen as incompetent.
Evidence of foreign fighters operating in southern Lebanon continues to mount as the Israeli military recently killed three Syrian members of Islamic Jihad.
Violent explosions hit the Kalsu base in Iraq, amid speculation of Israeli involvement; no party has claimed responsibility. Recent attacks on US soldiers in Syria and Iraq, after a hiatus, may signal a resurgence of violence against US presence, as Iraqi factions debate approaches towards US withdrawal.
The Islamic Republic’s disorganized messaging on Israel tensions reflects its fear of public backlash, revealing internal coordination gaps and anxiety over criticism
Israel killed a senior IRGC officer in Syria. Iran, and possibly Hezbollah will avenge him – but without undermining their broader objective of rescuing Hamas and its partners in Gaza.
Tehran is threatening new attacks in the Middle East after the April 1 Israeli airstrike in Damascus that killed the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander responsible for smuggling weapons to Lebanon. Analysis of Iranian-backed attacks and U.S. responses in recent months makes clear that a U.S. failure to hit back hard will simply invite more Iranian attacks and risk more American casualties.
Iran acknowledged the deaths of senior IRGC officers in a significant airstrike against its forces in the Syrian capital.
Evidence has emerged demonstrating that foreign fighters are operating in Lebanon against Israel.
Israel continues to attack IRGC advisor in Syria on almost a monthly base.
It is unclear if the U.S. response is retaliatory in nature, or if the strikes are designed to force Iran to get its proxy terror militias to cease their attacks.
Israel revealed the existence of Hezbollah’s airstrip back in September. Information available at the time indicated Hezbollah would use it to launch drones to attack Israel. When the group did so last Wednesday, Israel bombed the airstrip.
U.S. forces hit “headquarters, storage, and training locations for rocket, missile, and one-way attack UAV capabilities,” according to CENTCOM. The strike is the eight against the Iranian-backed militias, which have hit U.S. bases more than 150 times since Hamas attacks Israel in October 2023.
An airstrike in the Syrian capital of Damascus killed five IRGC military advisors, including General Sadegh Omidzadeh. The strike is the second against Iranian advisors in Syria in the past four weeks.
As the Houthis defy the international coalition thatis struggling to keep the Red Sea open to commercial shipping, the Iranians launched a ballistic missile strike on what it claimed was Israeli intelligence assets in Irbil, Iraq.
The Houthis have launched three strikes, including one against a U.S. warship, since the U.S. and U.K. attacked Houthi military targets on Jan. 11 in an effort to restore deterrence. The Houthis have not been deterred.
Today’s strike is the first to target a commander of the Iranian-backed militias. Abu Taqwa Al Si’adi was a commander in the Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba, a U.S.-designated terror organization.