Tehran is threatening new attacks in the Middle East after the April 1 Israeli airstrike in Damascus that killed the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander responsible for smuggling weapons to Lebanon. Analysis of Iranian-backed attacks and U.S. responses in recent months makes clear that a U.S. failure to hit back hard will simply invite more Iranian attacks and risk more American casualties.
Bill and Behnam discuss reports of Iran sending ballistic missiles to Russia and the potential for subsequent U.S. sanctions on Tehran (and why that’d be insufficient); why the head of the IRGC Quds Force allegedly paid a recent visit to Iraq; an update on the Houthi-Gulf of Aden-Bab al Mandeb-Red Sea theater, including a new underwater drone threat and why if we happen to see the Iranians “de-escalate” in one theater it’s because they’re preparing to escalate in another (and not because they’ve been “deterred”).
A drone strike in Baghdad eliminated a Hezbollah Brigades commander complicit in planning and carrying out attacks against U.S. troops in the region.
It is unclear if the U.S. response is retaliatory in nature, or if the strikes are designed to force Iran to get its proxy terror militias to cease their attacks.
President Biden blamed Iranian-backed militias for killing three US service members and injuring others following a drone attack on a base in Jordan.
U.S. forces hit “headquarters, storage, and training locations for rocket, missile, and one-way attack UAV capabilities,” according to CENTCOM. The strike is the eight against the Iranian-backed militias, which have hit U.S. bases more than 150 times since Hamas attacks Israel in October 2023.
Iran-backed militias in Iraq fired ballistic missiles and rockets at U.S. troops operating in Ain al-Assad airbase in western Iraq.
As the Houthis defy the international coalition thatis struggling to keep the Red Sea open to commercial shipping, the Iranians launched a ballistic missile strike on what it claimed was Israeli intelligence assets in Irbil, Iraq.
Bill and Behnam unpack this week’s headlines from the Middle East, including the assassination of Hamas deputy Saleh al-Arouri; the U.S. strike that killed Iran-backed militia commander Abu Taqwa Al-Saedi in Iraq (and subsequent drama with the Iraqi government); the U.S.-led coalition dubbed Prosperity Guardian’s “final warning” to the Houthis; and the ISIS bombings at a memorial in Kerman, Iran for slain IRGC-QF commander Qassim Suleimani.
The current Islamic State spokesman announced yet another global campaign for the group’s global affiliates and supporters. Though intrinsically propagandistic, prior global campaigns had severe real world consequences.
Today’s strike is the first to target a commander of the Iranian-backed militias. Abu Taqwa Al Si’adi was a commander in the Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba, a U.S.-designated terror organization.
Four members of Lebanese Hezbollah, and two members of Iraqi militia groups have been killed by airstrikes in Eastern Syria.
Iraq’s Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al Sudani also denounced militia attacks on U.S. forces, however he is powerless to stop them. The Iranian-backed militias report to Sudani, but do not follow his orders. They are loyal to Iran.
The U.S. hit three Hezbollah Brigades facilities after three U.S. soldiers were wounded, including one critically, in a drone strike at a U.S. airbase in Erbil. the handful of U.S. strikes has not deterred the militias or their Iranian masters.
The U.S. announces the formation of Operation Prosperity Guardian as Houthi attacks have ground international shipping transiting the Red Sea through the Suez Canal to a halt as multiple shippers are now bypassing the dangerous waterway. It is unclear if the operation will be offensive or defensive in nature.
Bill is back with FDD Senior Fellow and Iran expert Behnam Ben Taleblu (now also a Generation Jihad co-host, you heard it here first) to unpack and contextualize this week’s headlines stemming from the Middle East.
They discuss the politics of diplomacy and analyze recent trips and statements made by key players like Secretary of State Antony Blinken, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, and President Biden himself; whether U.S. support for Israel is at a crossroads, and what message this could send to U.S. partners and allies (and enemies) around the world; an apparent U.S. intelligence leak estimating that 45% of Israeli munition used in Gaza has not been precision-guided; and more.
A Norwegian tanker was hit with a cruise missile, while a French warship shot down two drones that “came straight at” it. The Houthis have vowed to continue to attack all international ships that enter or leave Israeli ports.
Bill is joined by Stu Velasco and Zach Popp of The Boardwalk Podcast (also hosted by Kyle Reynolds who couldn’t make it, shoutout Kyle Reynolds) to discuss the trials and tribulations of their time in service to the U.S. during the long war.
The attack is the latest by the Houthis against international shipping and U.S. Navy warships. The U.S. military has yet to respond to repeated attacks on U.S. warships and commercial vessels.
The anti-ship ballistic missiles, which were fired by the Houthis after a U.S. warship foiled a hijacking in the Gulf of Aden, missed their mark. The U.S. military has not responded to the attack.
The the U.S. military accused Iran of directly carrying out attacks on U.S. forces. “close-range ballistic missiles” were used in a recent attack against U.S. forces.
Unlike three previous strikes by the U.S. military which were intended to deter the militias from attacking U.S. forces, today’s strike targeted a Hezbollah Brigades team that had targeted a U.S. base in western Iraq.
The U.S. attack is thought to have killed a handful of Iranian proxy militiamen. U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin did not mention deterrence or a desire to deescalate this time around.
Iran’s militias in Iraq and Syria have launched at least 24 strikes, primarily with drones, rockets, and mortars on U.S. military bases since Oct. 17. Five of the attacks took place after the U.S. military struck IRGC weapons depots in Syria in a failed effort to reestablish deterrence.
The war goes on; rockets are still raining down on central Israel (including Jerusalem) while Israel continues targeting Hamas leaders in Gaza. But…
Breaking today and over the weekend:
Israeli boots are now on the ground inside Gaza. There was also some IDF activity in Jenin inside the West Bank.
Iran’s President Raisi gaslit said on X that, “the Zionist regime’s crimes have crossed the red lines which may force everyone to take action.”
While Lebanese Hezbollah is still keeping things at a simmer just below the threshold of all-out war, other Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Syria are very much in the game. Some are even firing at U.S. forces in the region.
Bill and Joe are joined again by FDD’s Behnam Ben Taleblu to unpack these and related headlines.
In response to a spate of attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq and Syria by Iran-backed militias, the U.S. military struck two IRGC weapons storage sites in Syria. After years of largely ignoring these strikes, the Biden administration wants to deter the militias from future assaults. It may be too late.
The attacks took place as Hezbollah Brigades, a dangerous Iranian proxy, threatened U.S. forces in Iraq with “the fire of Hell” if American did not withdraw its troops from Iraq.
Hadi al-Amiri, leader of Iraq’s Badr Organization, and Ashab al-Kahf, a newer Iranian proxy in Iraq, have also issued warnings against to the United States about intervening in Israel.
The Hezbollah Brigades have now joined other Iranian proxies and sponsored groups in issuing threats against the United States over the ongoing war in Israel.
Kata’ib Sayyid al-Shuhada, an Iranian proxy in Iraq that also operates in Syria, says American bases in Iraq and Syria will become legitimate targets if the US intervenes against Hamas.