Tehran’s pawns in Iraq
Bill is joined by show regular Edmund Fitton-Brown to discuss Edmund’s latest analysis for FDD’s Long War Journal: The role of Iraqi Shia militias as proxies in Iran’s Axis of Resistance.
Bill is joined by show regular Edmund Fitton-Brown to discuss Edmund’s latest analysis for FDD’s Long War Journal: The role of Iraqi Shia militias as proxies in Iran’s Axis of Resistance.
The US military conducted a series of operations with “partner forces” in Iraq and Syria over the past week, part of a continuing effort to degrade the Islamic State and prevent it from filling the security vacuum left by the collapse of the Assad regime.
US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf said the bounty was lifted on Abu Mohammad al Jolani because it would be “a little incoherent […] to have a bounty on the guy’s head” as she sat down to talk with him. The US government currently lists Jolani as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist for his ties to Al Qaeda and Hayat Tahrir al Sham as a Foreign Terrorist Organization.
Ali Mousa Daqduq was one of the founders of Iraq’s Iran-backed militias that are responsible for killing over 600 American soldiers in Iraq. Daqduq was in US custody in 2007 before being handed over to the Iraqi government, which subsequently freed him in 2011. He returned to Hezbollah and served as deputy commander of the Radwan Force when he was killed.
Israel commemorated the anniversary of the October 7 massacre as Hamas fired more than 135 rockets at southern and central Israel, Iraqi militias targeted Israel with drones, and the Houthis launched a long-range missile at central Israel. The IDF’s top general met with the head of US Central Command on October 6. A third IDF division began operations in Lebanon as the Israeli Air Force hit 120 Hezbollah targets.
The IDF carried out airstrikes on the Iranian-backed Houthis in Hudaydah using dozens of aircraft. An Israeli missile ship intercepted a UAV launched at Israel, and Iranian-backed militias in Iraq took credit for the attack. Israeli forces in Gaza uncovered a tunnel. Hezbollah carried out numerous rocket attacks on Israel on September 29, and the IDF continued strikes on the terrorist group. The IDF confirmed that more than 20 Hezbollah members were eliminated in the September 27 strike which killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut.
Abu-‘Ali al-Tunisi, one of the killed Islamic State (IS) leaders, had a $5 million bounty on his head. The raid against the IS cell took place one week before the news of the drawdown of US forces from Iraq.
US military bases in the Persian Gulf confront two challenges, one military and the other political. FDD’s Ryan Brobst, Bradley Bowman, and Behnam Ben Taleblu survey the two challenges and propose a way to address them.
As soon as the Islamic Republic of Iran was established, it effectively declared war on Israel and the West. International appeasement of Iran has failed, and the current crisis in the Middle East has clarified that a more forceful Western policy is required now to forestall a more dangerous confrontation a few years later.
Iran-backed militias relaunched attacks on US bases in Iraq amid internal rifts within Iraq’s Shia Coordination Framework. Significant factions want an end to the international coalition’s mission and the withdrawal of American forces from Iraq.
The leader of Asaib Ahl al Haq, a dangerous and influential Iran-backed Iraqi militia, threatened US bases in the event of a large-scale Israeli military campaign against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. Iran’s proxies are renewing strikes against US bases in the region.
Over the past month, there has been an increase in attacks from Iraq against Israel by the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, consisting of multiple Iran-backed militias, amid claims of targeting significant Israeli locations and an escalation marked by advanced weaponry use, despite many claims lacking independent confirmation.
Iranian-backed Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba’ issued a statement warning that it would respond against Israel for attacking a site in Damascus belonging to the militia.
Violent explosions hit the Kalsu base in Iraq, amid speculation of Israeli involvement; no party has claimed responsibility. Recent attacks on US soldiers in Syria and Iraq, after a hiatus, may signal a resurgence of violence against US presence, as Iraqi factions debate approaches towards US withdrawal.
Iran-backed militias and proxies are threatening Jordan’s security.
Tehran is threatening new attacks in the Middle East after the April 1 Israeli airstrike in Damascus that killed the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander responsible for smuggling weapons to Lebanon. Analysis of Iranian-backed attacks and U.S. responses in recent months makes clear that a U.S. failure to hit back hard will simply invite more Iranian attacks and risk more American casualties.
Bill and Behnam discuss reports of Iran sending ballistic missiles to Russia and the potential for subsequent U.S. sanctions on Tehran (and why that’d be insufficient); why the head of the IRGC Quds Force allegedly paid a recent visit to Iraq; an update on the Houthi-Gulf of Aden-Bab al Mandeb-Red Sea theater, including a new underwater drone threat and why if we happen to see the Iranians “de-escalate” in one theater it’s because they’re preparing to escalate in another (and not because they’ve been “deterred”).
A drone strike in Baghdad eliminated a Hezbollah Brigades commander complicit in planning and carrying out attacks against U.S. troops in the region.
It is unclear if the U.S. response is retaliatory in nature, or if the strikes are designed to force Iran to get its proxy terror militias to cease their attacks.
President Biden blamed Iranian-backed militias for killing three US service members and injuring others following a drone attack on a base in Jordan.
U.S. forces hit “headquarters, storage, and training locations for rocket, missile, and one-way attack UAV capabilities,” according to CENTCOM. The strike is the eight against the Iranian-backed militias, which have hit U.S. bases more than 150 times since Hamas attacks Israel in October 2023.
Iran-backed militias in Iraq fired ballistic missiles and rockets at U.S. troops operating in Ain al-Assad airbase in western Iraq.
As the Houthis defy the international coalition thatis struggling to keep the Red Sea open to commercial shipping, the Iranians launched a ballistic missile strike on what it claimed was Israeli intelligence assets in Irbil, Iraq.
Bill and Behnam unpack this week’s headlines from the Middle East, including the assassination of Hamas deputy Saleh al-Arouri; the U.S. strike that killed Iran-backed militia commander Abu Taqwa Al-Saedi in Iraq (and subsequent drama with the Iraqi government); the U.S.-led coalition dubbed Prosperity Guardian’s “final warning” to the Houthis; and the ISIS bombings at a memorial in Kerman, Iran for slain IRGC-QF commander Qassim Suleimani.
The current Islamic State spokesman announced yet another global campaign for the group’s global affiliates and supporters. Though intrinsically propagandistic, prior global campaigns had severe real world consequences.
Today’s strike is the first to target a commander of the Iranian-backed militias. Abu Taqwa Al Si’adi was a commander in the Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba, a U.S.-designated terror organization.
Four members of Lebanese Hezbollah, and two members of Iraqi militia groups have been killed by airstrikes in Eastern Syria.
Iraq’s Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al Sudani also denounced militia attacks on U.S. forces, however he is powerless to stop them. The Iranian-backed militias report to Sudani, but do not follow his orders. They are loyal to Iran.
The U.S. hit three Hezbollah Brigades facilities after three U.S. soldiers were wounded, including one critically, in a drone strike at a U.S. airbase in Erbil. the handful of U.S. strikes has not deterred the militias or their Iranian masters.
The U.S. announces the formation of Operation Prosperity Guardian as Houthi attacks have ground international shipping transiting the Red Sea through the Suez Canal to a halt as multiple shippers are now bypassing the dangerous waterway. It is unclear if the operation will be offensive or defensive in nature.