Iran has reportedly ordered its military personnel to leave Yemen amidst the growing US bombing campaign. The move reflects a broader pattern of the Islamic Republic recalibrating its regional strategy in response to the Trump administration’s moves to curtail Tehran’s influence in the Middle East and threats to potentially strike Iran’s nuclear sites.
Iraqi political and militia leaders are reportedly responding to pressure from the US to disband Iran-backed militias in Iraq. However, the progress of government efforts and the ultimate status of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), primarily supported by Iran, remain uncertain.
Former Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi traveled to Houthi-controlled Sanaa in Yemen on March 20, according to reports in Iranian and Yemeni media. His visit occurred as the US continued its campaign of airstrikes against the Iranian-backed Houthis. Sources Abdul-Mahdi was in Yemen to attend a conference in support of Palestinians, but other reports speculated that his visit may be linked to the US conflict with the Houthis and Iran’s historic backing of the group.
On March 13, US Central Command carried out an airstrike that killed Abdallah Makki Muslih al Rifai, also known as Abu Khadijah. Rifai was a top leader in the Islamic State (IS) whose exact position is in dispute—likely the group’s effective second in command or caliph. His death marks another significant strike against IS after various leaders have been killed in the last three years.
On March 5, Iraqi National Security Advisor Qassem al Araji said that Baghdad is trying to locate kidnapped researcher Elizabeth Tsurkov, an Israeli and Russian citizen who was abducted in March 2023. Israeli officials have blamed Kataib Hezbollah for kidnapping Tsurkov, and her case has received increased attention in the last two months since the Trump administration entered office.
Lebanon seized $2.5 million in cash destined for Hezbollah carried by a man arriving from Turkey. This development follows Israeli accusations that Turkey is being used as a conduit for Iranian funds to reach Hezbollah and may be facilitating the transfers.
Falih al Fayyadh, the head of Iraq’s largely pro-Iranian Popular Mobilization Units (PMU), traveled to Beirut for the funeral of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on February 23. Other senior members of pro-Iranian militias in Iraq also attended the funeral, and several militia leaders put out statements. Hezbollah-affiliated media claimed approximately 200,000 Iraqis came to Lebanon for the event, though this number is unverified.
On February 18, Falih al Fayyadh, the chairman of Iraq’s largely pro-Iranian Popular Mobilization Units (PMU), visited Tehran and met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. According to reports, Fayyadh also met with Ali Akbar Ahmadian, the head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.
On February 2, a drone targeted the Khor Mor gas field in the autonomous Kurdistan Region of Iraq. Dana Gas, which runs the facility, said that operations continued as normal, and there were no injuries. The same area has been attacked several times in recent years, including by an Iranian-type Shahed drone in April 2024. The US Embassy condemned the attack, and Iraq’s prime minister called for an investigation.
Pro-Iranian militias in Iraq, collectively part of the Hashd al Shaabi (Popular Mobilization Units), face increasing calls to place their arms under state control or lay them down entirely. The fall of the Assad regime, a new administration in Washington, and the Gaza ceasefire have put these groups under the spotlight in Iraqi politics.
Bill is joined by show regular Edmund Fitton-Brown to discuss Edmund’s latest analysis for FDD’s Long War Journal: The role of Iraqi Shia militias as proxies in Iran’s Axis of Resistance.
The US military conducted a series of operations with “partner forces” in Iraq and Syria over the past week, part of a continuing effort to degrade the Islamic State and prevent it from filling the security vacuum left by the collapse of the Assad regime.
US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf said the bounty was lifted on Abu Mohammad al Jolani because it would be “a little incoherent […] to have a bounty on the guy’s head” as she sat down to talk with him. The US government currently lists Jolani as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist for his ties to Al Qaeda and Hayat Tahrir al Sham as a Foreign Terrorist Organization.
Ali Mousa Daqduq was one of the founders of Iraq’s Iran-backed militias that are responsible for killing over 600 American soldiers in Iraq. Daqduq was in US custody in 2007 before being handed over to the Iraqi government, which subsequently freed him in 2011. He returned to Hezbollah and served as deputy commander of the Radwan Force when he was killed.
Israel commemorated the anniversary of the October 7 massacre as Hamas fired more than 135 rockets at southern and central Israel, Iraqi militias targeted Israel with drones, and the Houthis launched a long-range missile at central Israel. The IDF’s top general met with the head of US Central Command on October 6. A third IDF division began operations in Lebanon as the Israeli Air Force hit 120 Hezbollah targets.
The IDF carried out airstrikes on the Iranian-backed Houthis in Hudaydah using dozens of aircraft. An Israeli missile ship intercepted a UAV launched at Israel, and Iranian-backed militias in Iraq took credit for the attack. Israeli forces in Gaza uncovered a tunnel. Hezbollah carried out numerous rocket attacks on Israel on September 29, and the IDF continued strikes on the terrorist group. The IDF confirmed that more than 20 Hezbollah members were eliminated in the September 27 strike which killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut.
Abu-‘Ali al-Tunisi, one of the killed Islamic State (IS) leaders, had a $5 million bounty on his head. The raid against the IS cell took place one week before the news of the drawdown of US forces from Iraq.
US military bases in the Persian Gulf confront two challenges, one military and the other political. FDD’s Ryan Brobst, Bradley Bowman, and Behnam Ben Taleblu survey the two challenges and propose a way to address them.
As soon as the Islamic Republic of Iran was established, it effectively declared war on Israel and the West. International appeasement of Iran has failed, and the current crisis in the Middle East has clarified that a more forceful Western policy is required now to forestall a more dangerous confrontation a few years later.
Iran-backed militias relaunched attacks on US bases in Iraq amid internal rifts within Iraq’s Shia Coordination Framework. Significant factions want an end to the international coalition’s mission and the withdrawal of American forces from Iraq.
The leader of Asaib Ahl al Haq, a dangerous and influential Iran-backed Iraqi militia, threatened US bases in the event of a large-scale Israeli military campaign against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. Iran’s proxies are renewing strikes against US bases in the region.
Over the past month, there has been an increase in attacks from Iraq against Israel by the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, consisting of multiple Iran-backed militias, amid claims of targeting significant Israeli locations and an escalation marked by advanced weaponry use, despite many claims lacking independent confirmation.
Iranian-backed Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba’ issued a statement warning that it would respond against Israel for attacking a site in Damascus belonging to the militia.
Violent explosions hit the Kalsu base in Iraq, amid speculation of Israeli involvement; no party has claimed responsibility. Recent attacks on US soldiers in Syria and Iraq, after a hiatus, may signal a resurgence of violence against US presence, as Iraqi factions debate approaches towards US withdrawal.
Iran-backed militias and proxies are threatening Jordan’s security.
Tehran is threatening new attacks in the Middle East after the April 1 Israeli airstrike in Damascus that killed the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander responsible for smuggling weapons to Lebanon. Analysis of Iranian-backed attacks and U.S. responses in recent months makes clear that a U.S. failure to hit back hard will simply invite more Iranian attacks and risk more American casualties.
Bill and Behnam discuss reports of Iran sending ballistic missiles to Russia and the potential for subsequent U.S. sanctions on Tehran (and why that’d be insufficient); why the head of the IRGC Quds Force allegedly paid a recent visit to Iraq; an update on the Houthi-Gulf of Aden-Bab al Mandeb-Red Sea theater, including a new underwater drone threat and why if we happen to see the Iranians “de-escalate” in one theater it’s because they’re preparing to escalate in another (and not because they’ve been “deterred”).
A drone strike in Baghdad eliminated a Hezbollah Brigades commander complicit in planning and carrying out attacks against U.S. troops in the region.
It is unclear if the U.S. response is retaliatory in nature, or if the strikes are designed to force Iran to get its proxy terror militias to cease their attacks.
President Biden blamed Iranian-backed militias for killing three US service members and injuring others following a drone attack on a base in Jordan.