Tag Archives: Iran

Khameni and Assad meeting

Analysis: Iran never gave up on Assad; it simply failed to protect him

| December 13, 2024

The sudden collapse of the Islamic Republic’s closest state-actor ally stunned the world as Syrian rebels captured Damascus in just 11 days after launching a new wave of insurgency. To deflect this humiliating defeat, Iranian officials have claimed that the Tehran-Damascus alliance had been weakening and that Iran no longer aimed to preserve the Assad dynasty. However, leaks from Tehran and insights into Iranian regional strategy tell a different story: Iran was incapable of safeguarding the Syrian regime, and its collapse has sparked internal divisions among Iranian officials.

Israeli troops patrol southern Lebanon

Israeli defense officials meet as Syrian regime loses ground to rebels

| December 5, 2024

Israeli Minister of Defense Israel Katz met with Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Chief of the General Staff Herzi Halevi on December 5 as the situation in Syria shifts rapidly. “The IDF monitors developments and is prepared for all scenarios, offensive and defensive alike. The IDF will not tolerate threats near the Lebanon-Syria border and will thwart any threat against the State of Israel,” the IDF said in a statement. It is the second high-level meeting Israel has had in the wake of the Syrian regime losing ground to opposition forces. At the same time, the IDF continues to operate in southern Lebanon.

Assad sign Syria

Analysis: Tehran on the back foot: Proxy struggles and Assad’s dilemma

| December 2, 2024

Just a year ago, the Islamic Republic was on the offensive as it used its proxies to launch coordinated attacks on Israel from six fronts to demonstrate the extent of its regional influence. Now, the momentum has shifted. Israeli operations have severely weakened Hamas and Hezbollah, Syrian rebels backed by Turkey wage a relentless war against Assad, and the United States targets Iranian-backed militia bases across Syria.

Hezbollah supporters celebrating

Analysis: Iran hails ceasefire as an opportunity to rebuild Hezbollah

| November 27, 2024

With Israel and Hamas having reached a ceasefire agreement, the rhetoric coming from Tehran is far from de-escalatory. Military and civilian officials within the Islamic Republic continue to underscore their commitment to rebuilding Hezbollah’s capabilities and have reiterated threats of launching a third phase of the “True Promise” operation against Israel.

Toophan

Amid ceasefire talks, Israel focuses on disrupting weapons smuggling to Hezbollah

| November 25, 2024

Hezbollah launched numerous barrages of rockets at Israel on November 26 as reports in Israel indicated a possible ceasefire might be agreed to this week. The IDF focused its attacks on Hezbollah’s weapons smuggling networks that stretch into Syria and are backed by Iran. In addition, the IDF showed off some of the vehicles and Iranian weapons it has seized in Lebanon.

Daqduq

Israel kills wanted Hezbollah commander behind the establishment of Iraq’s Iran-backed militias

| November 24, 2024

Ali Mousa Daqduq was one of the founders of Iraq’s Iran-backed militias that are responsible for killing over 600 American soldiers in Iraq. Daqduq was in US custody in 2007 before being handed over to the Iraqi government, which subsequently freed him in 2011. He returned to Hezbollah and served as deputy commander of the Radwan Force when he was killed.

Qasir reward poster

Analysis: Hezbollah’s Unit 4400

| November 5, 2024

Israel has focused on degrading Hezbollah’s Unit 4400, which is tasked with supplying the group with weapons and funds. Israel’s spate of attacks has impacted the unit’s ability to function and Hezbollah’s battle-readiness during the current campaign. However, it remains too soon to determine the long-term impact on Hezbollah’s organizational integrity.

Counter-UAV demonstration in Israel

Multi-front drone threats against Israel increase

| October 22, 2024

Israel faces a rising drone threat from Iranian-backed proxies. On October 22, Israel confirmed that a drone attack on October 19 had struck a residence of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and Hezbollah took responsibility for the attack. Hezbollah also killed four IDF soldiers and wounded 60 in an attack on an IDF training base on October 13. Israel’s Minister of Defense held a trial for defense companies to showcase technology to counter drone threats on October 14.

Halevi visits southern Lebanon

Israel executes waves of strikes on Hezbollah financial institution

| October 21, 2024

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) began waves of strikes on a financial organization it states has branches across Lebanon and is used to fund Hezbollah’s terror activities. An Israeli military assessment reports the IDF has hit 3,200 Hezbollah targets and killed seven of the group’s brigade commanders and 21 of its battalion commanders since the operation in Lebanon began almost a month ago.

Analysis: Leaks and spy rings merely delay the inevitable Israeli operation

| October 21, 2024

Despite allegedly leaked documents from US agencies and Tehran’s ongoing intelligence operations aimed at disrupting an Israeli attack, Iran is bracing itself for an operation targeting its nuclear facilities. The situation has only intensified after Hezbollah’s botched attempt to assassinate Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Iranian military flags

Analysis: The ‘How’ over the ‘What:’ Israel’s dilemma beyond target selection in Iran

| October 18, 2024

Israel’s war cabinet has reportedly agreed on what Iranian targets to strike, so the question now is what method it will employ to carry out the attacks to effectively deter Tehran without escalating into a full-scale war. In doing so, Israel has two choices: to either publicly humiliate the regime or launch a series of covert attacks, and the latter is less likely to warrant Tehran’s retaliation.

Yahya Sinwar

Israeli troops kill wanted Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar

| October 17, 2024

Sinwar was the mastermind behind the October 7, 2023, assault on Israel and was perhaps the most wanted Hamas terrorist by Israel. A veteran of Hamas since the 1980s, Sinwar established the group’s security service and rose to lead Hamas in August 2024 after his predecessor was assassinated in Tehran, Iran.

Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Fallahzadeh

Analysis: ‘Axis of Resistance’ or ‘Axis of Espionage?’ Iran’s struggles to staff leadership

| October 15, 2024

The appointment of Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Fallahzadeh as Hezbollah’s “supervisor” underscores the growing challenges faced by Iran and its proxies amid Israel’s military and intelligence operations. The inability to establish stable leadership within Hezbollah not only reflects Israel’s tactical successes but also reveals deep fractures within the Axis of Resistance. The heightened paranoia among Iranian leaders suggests a precarious future for the Islamic Republic’s efforts to maintain control over its oldest proxy.

Road to Third Lebanon War map

Analysis: The road to the Third Lebanon War

| October 15, 2024

The conflict between Hezbollah and Israel that began on October 8, 2023, has evolved into a protracted war of attrition that neither side initially expected to last this long. Hezbollah’s goal was to support Gaza by diverting the Israelis’ attention and impacting their morale, but the group miscalculated Israel’s resolve, leading to an extended and more intense conflict.

Israel eliminated Nasrallah’s successor

| October 9, 2024

Israel announced that it killed Hashem Safieddine, the likely successor to Hezbollah’s longtime Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah. Safieddine was a veteran Hezbollah leader, and the group has suffered significant losses to its leadership cadre.

Nova Music Festival massacre anniversary commemoration

Israel faces attacks on multiple fronts on the anniversary of the October 7 attack

| October 7, 2024

Israel commemorated the anniversary of the October 7 massacre as Hamas fired more than 135 rockets at southern and central Israel, Iraqi militias targeted Israel with drones, and the Houthis launched a long-range missile at central Israel. The IDF’s top general met with the head of US Central Command on October 6. A third IDF division began operations in Lebanon as the Israeli Air Force hit 120 Hezbollah targets.

Iran targets in Israel graphic

Analysis: Iran threatens Israeli civil and nuclear infrastructure on October 7 anniversary

| October 7, 2024

On the anniversary of the October 7 terrorist attack, the Islamic Republic has pledged to target Israeli cities and critical infrastructure while US and Israeli officials consider their options in response to Tehran’s second ballistic missile assault. With Israel’s air defense capabilities demonstrating superiority over Iranian missiles and the military setbacks suffered by the regime’s proxies, Tehran has increasingly diminished its leverage over Jerusalem. This shifting dynamic offers Israel a strategic opportunity to target the regime’s nuclear facilities, addressing the primary existential threat it faces.

Houthis

Analysis: The Houthis’ leadership structure

| October 6, 2024

The Houthis in Yemen have an extensive leadership hierarchy. FDD’s Long War Journal lists some of the leaders of the organization, their roles, and if they have been sanctioned by the United States government.

IDF raid into Lebanon

IDF begins Lebanon ground operation, Iran launches 180 ballistic missiles at Israel

| October 1, 2024

The Israel Defense (IDF) Forces began a ground operation in southern Lebanon against Hezbollah, led by the IDF’s 98th Division. The IDF described the offensive as “localized, and targeted ground raids based on precise intelligence against Hezbollah terrorist targets and infrastructure in southern Lebanon.” Iran launched 180 ballistic missiles at Israel, while Hezbollah fired rocket barrages at northern and central Israel.

Hezbollah flag

Analysis: Tehran’s damage control tactics amidst Hezbollah’s setbacks

| September 25, 2024

The Iranian regime’s current strategy seems focused on damage control, as it believes maintaining a foundation allows it to eventually regain influence in southern Lebanon. The Islamic Republic aims to create an image of total warfare through a series of calculated proxy attacks. This approach not only projects strength to its supporters but also bets on the possibility that the United States will pressure Israel to stop its strikes against Iranian militias.

Analysis: The Houthis have challenged the Rules-Based International System and must be defeated

| September 23, 2024

Was the international community culpably naive in failing to give unqualified backing to Yemen’s internationally recognized government (IRG)? And was this largely because of a knee-jerk hostility to the Saudis that is so common in Western progressive circles? If the Houthis genuinely pose a chronic threat to the Rules-Based International System and intend to hold freedom of navigation in the Red Sea hostage to any and every tactical interest they choose to pursue, will it become inevitable to try to revive and empower the Saudi-IRG coalition to suppress them?