The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) carried out airstrikes in southern Syria on February 25 after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz said that southern Syria must be a demilitarized zone. Local reports said that the strikes hit several areas in Daraa province, not far from Israel’s Golan Heights.
Recent statements by Islamic Republic officials indicate Tehran’s staunch commitment to rebuilding Hezbollah’s capabilities and achieving “final victory.” These threats may signal a renewed escalation in the region after Israel’s crippling blow to Iran’s missile arsenal and the collapse of the Islamic Republic’s Syrian ally.
On February 18, Falih al Fayyadh, the chairman of Iraq’s largely pro-Iranian Popular Mobilization Units (PMU), visited Tehran and met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. According to reports, Fayyadh also met with Ali Akbar Ahmadian, the head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.
Four years after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, the threat posed by the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) has expanded beyond the region, now endangering both America and Europe. With the group actively recruiting and transferring fighters across borders, regional actors such as the Taliban, Iran, Tajikistan, and Pakistan have proven unable to curb its growth.
There has been a serious escalation on the Lebanon-Syria border over the past week after Syrian forces launched an operation targeting illegal checkpoints used for narcotics and weapon smuggling.
Iran’s intelligence network is not a monolithic entity but a web of competing and cooperating factions that execute the regime’s global ambitions. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Quds Force, and Ministry of Intelligence each play distinct yet overlapping roles in conducting assassinations, abductions, and sabotage operations worldwide. While institutional rivalries persist, their shared objective—suppressing dissent and expanding Iran’s geopolitical reach—ensures continued collaboration.
On February 2, a drone targeted the Khor Mor gas field in the autonomous Kurdistan Region of Iraq. Dana Gas, which runs the facility, said that operations continued as normal, and there were no injuries. The same area has been attacked several times in recent years, including by an Iranian-type Shahed drone in April 2024. The US Embassy condemned the attack, and Iraq’s prime minister called for an investigation.
Pro-Iranian militias in Iraq, collectively part of the Hashd al Shaabi (Popular Mobilization Units), face increasing calls to place their arms under state control or lay them down entirely. The fall of the Assad regime, a new administration in Washington, and the Gaza ceasefire have put these groups under the spotlight in Iraqi politics.
The Biden administration removed the Houthis from the list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations in 2021 and didn’t re-list the group despite over 15 months of missile and drone attacks on US naval forces, international shipping, and Israel. The Trump administration ordered re-listing the Houthis after two days in office.
Bill is joined by show regular Edmund Fitton-Brown to discuss Edmund’s latest analysis for FDD’s Long War Journal: The role of Iraqi Shia militias as proxies in Iran’s Axis of Resistance.
Bill is joined by his FDD colleagues David Daoud and Jon Schanzer — who literally wrote the book on conflict in Gaza — to discuss the ceasefire and hostage deal that has just been reached between Israel and Hamas.
Iraq’s Shia militias play a unique part in Iran’s Axis of Resistance and present distinct challenges for the US, Israel, and the Iraqi state. Notably, a more direct conflict between the militias and the US and Israel would imperil the Iraqi government’s ability to balance its relationships with Iran and the US, along with the country’s essential stability.
Lebanon did not thoroughly inspect a Mahan Air Flight suspected of carrying funds for Hezbollah. It engaged in an act of theater to deny Israel justification to resume fighting the group in light of Beirut’s failure to implement its obligations under the November 27, 2024, ceasefire agreement.
The Tehran regime faces significant challenges, including the diminished influence of its regional proxies and the potential for an Israeli strike on its nuclear facilities. In response, the Islamic Republic has devised a three-pronged strategy: bolstering morale through propaganda, conducting extensive military drills as a deterrent, and amplifying support for its remaining proxies.
A recent declaration by the League of Arab States chastising Iran for “inciting strife among the Syrian people” and the weakened positions of or hedging by Tehran’s regional proxies signal Iran’s diminishing influence.
The sudden collapse of the Islamic Republic’s closest state-actor ally stunned the world as Syrian rebels captured Damascus in just 11 days after launching a new wave of insurgency. To deflect this humiliating defeat, Iranian officials have claimed that the Tehran-Damascus alliance had been weakening and that Iran no longer aimed to preserve the Assad dynasty. However, leaks from Tehran and insights into Iranian regional strategy tell a different story: Iran was incapable of safeguarding the Syrian regime, and its collapse has sparked internal divisions among Iranian officials.
Israeli Minister of Defense Israel Katz met with Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Chief of the General Staff Herzi Halevi on December 5 as the situation in Syria shifts rapidly. “The IDF monitors developments and is prepared for all scenarios, offensive and defensive alike. The IDF will not tolerate threats near the Lebanon-Syria border and will thwart any threat against the State of Israel,” the IDF said in a statement. It is the second high-level meeting Israel has had in the wake of the Syrian regime losing ground to opposition forces. At the same time, the IDF continues to operate in southern Lebanon.
Just a year ago, the Islamic Republic was on the offensive as it used its proxies to launch coordinated attacks on Israel from six fronts to demonstrate the extent of its regional influence. Now, the momentum has shifted. Israeli operations have severely weakened Hamas and Hezbollah, Syrian rebels backed by Turkey wage a relentless war against Assad, and the United States targets Iranian-backed militia bases across Syria.
With Israel and Hamas having reached a ceasefire agreement, the rhetoric coming from Tehran is far from de-escalatory. Military and civilian officials within the Islamic Republic continue to underscore their commitment to rebuilding Hezbollah’s capabilities and have reiterated threats of launching a third phase of the “True Promise” operation against Israel.
Hezbollah launched numerous barrages of rockets at Israel on November 26 as reports in Israel indicated a possible ceasefire might be agreed to this week. The IDF focused its attacks on Hezbollah’s weapons smuggling networks that stretch into Syria and are backed by Iran. In addition, the IDF showed off some of the vehicles and Iranian weapons it has seized in Lebanon.
Ali Mousa Daqduq was one of the founders of Iraq’s Iran-backed militias that are responsible for killing over 600 American soldiers in Iraq. Daqduq was in US custody in 2007 before being handed over to the Iraqi government, which subsequently freed him in 2011. He returned to Hezbollah and served as deputy commander of the Radwan Force when he was killed.
Israel’s recent kidnapping of a Lebanese naval officer, allegedly a senior official in Hezbollah’s small, elite naval unit, may have as much to do with disrupting Iranian attempts to resupply Hezbollah’s degraded arsenal by sea as it does with learning more about the secretive unit’s fighting capabilities.
Israel has focused on degrading Hezbollah’s Unit 4400, which is tasked with supplying the group with weapons and funds. Israel’s spate of attacks has impacted the unit’s ability to function and Hezbollah’s battle-readiness during the current campaign. However, it remains too soon to determine the long-term impact on Hezbollah’s organizational integrity.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducted airstrikes targeting sites belonging to Hezbollah’s intelligence headquarters in Syria.
On October 30, Naim Qassem delivered his first speech as Hezbollah’s new secretary-general. Qassem stressed his intention to continue in Nasrallah’s footsteps and that Hezbollah would continue its war with Israel until a ceasefire was reached on the group’s terms.
Seven Israelis were killed by Hezbollah rocket fire on October 31: five people in an agricultural area near Metula in northern Israel and two others while harvesting olives near Haifa. The IDF carried out airstrikes in Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah’s command and control and weapons storage facilities.
As Iran attempts to save face following Israel’s recent military strike, conflicting narratives about the imperative to respond are coming to the fore.
Israel faces a rising drone threat from Iranian-backed proxies. On October 22, Israel confirmed that a drone attack on October 19 had struck a residence of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and Hezbollah took responsibility for the attack. Hezbollah also killed four IDF soldiers and wounded 60 in an attack on an IDF training base on October 13. Israel’s Minister of Defense held a trial for defense companies to showcase technology to counter drone threats on October 14.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) began waves of strikes on a financial organization it states has branches across Lebanon and is used to fund Hezbollah’s terror activities. An Israeli military assessment reports the IDF has hit 3,200 Hezbollah targets and killed seven of the group’s brigade commanders and 21 of its battalion commanders since the operation in Lebanon began almost a month ago.
Despite allegedly leaked documents from US agencies and Tehran’s ongoing intelligence operations aimed at disrupting an Israeli attack, Iran is bracing itself for an operation targeting its nuclear facilities. The situation has only intensified after Hezbollah’s botched attempt to assassinate Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.