Amid rising tensions with the US, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has increased its military presence in the Persian Gulf. Over recent months, Iran has intensified exercises on islands located along a vital maritime corridor for global energy transit. Over one-fifth of the world’s oil passes through the Persian Gulf, making it a key geopolitical hotspot.
Former Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi traveled to Houthi-controlled Sanaa in Yemen on March 20, according to reports in Iranian and Yemeni media. His visit occurred as the US continued its campaign of airstrikes against the Iranian-backed Houthis. Sources Abdul-Mahdi was in Yemen to attend a conference in support of Palestinians, but other reports speculated that his visit may be linked to the US conflict with the Houthis and Iran’s historic backing of the group.
Iran reportedly urged the Houthis to de-escalate tensions in the Red Sea following President Donald Trump’s warning the US will hold Tehran accountable for its proxy’s destabilizing activities. Iranian calls for de-escalation, along with previous communications with other regional proxies, may signal a shift in the Islamic Republic’s proxy strategy.
The US has continued striking the Houthis in Yemen, hitting targets across territory controlled by the group, including military sites, infrastructure, and personnel. The Houthis have unsuccessfully attempted to target US naval assets in response.
Tehran’s ambitions extend beyond backing Shia and Sunni Islamist groups in the Middle East. On March 13, the US Treasury Department sanctioned Sweden’s Foxtrot gang for its ties to the Iranian regime, underscoring Tehran’s longstanding practice of cultivating criminal networks across Europe and the Americas to assassinate dissidents and target American, European, and Israeli interests.
The strikes against the Houthis, who have targeted international shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, are the first military actions taken against the Iranian-backed militia by the Trump administration since it took office. The US re-added the Iranian-backed militia to its list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations 10 days ago.
In a rare escalation, a group of armed men with nationalistic aspirations clashed with regime security forces in the southwestern city of Izeh. Livestreamed footage captures the final moments of four surrounded men, one of whom takes his own life rather than face arrest.
Tehran’s recent setbacks have paved the way for Ankara’s ascent. The Ankara-backed Azerbaijan’s triumph over Tehran-backed Armenia, Turkish-supported militias outmaneuvering Iran’s influence in Syria, and now, the unraveling of the Iran-backed PKK further tilts the balance in Turkey’s favor.
Lebanon seized $2.5 million in cash destined for Hezbollah carried by a man arriving from Turkey. This development follows Israeli accusations that Turkey is being used as a conduit for Iranian funds to reach Hezbollah and may be facilitating the transfers.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) carried out airstrikes in southern Syria on February 25 after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz said that southern Syria must be a demilitarized zone. Local reports said that the strikes hit several areas in Daraa province, not far from Israel’s Golan Heights.
Recent statements by Islamic Republic officials indicate Tehran’s staunch commitment to rebuilding Hezbollah’s capabilities and achieving “final victory.” These threats may signal a renewed escalation in the region after Israel’s crippling blow to Iran’s missile arsenal and the collapse of the Islamic Republic’s Syrian ally.
On February 18, Falih al Fayyadh, the chairman of Iraq’s largely pro-Iranian Popular Mobilization Units (PMU), visited Tehran and met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. According to reports, Fayyadh also met with Ali Akbar Ahmadian, the head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.
Four years after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, the threat posed by the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) has expanded beyond the region, now endangering both America and Europe. With the group actively recruiting and transferring fighters across borders, regional actors such as the Taliban, Iran, Tajikistan, and Pakistan have proven unable to curb its growth.
There has been a serious escalation on the Lebanon-Syria border over the past week after Syrian forces launched an operation targeting illegal checkpoints used for narcotics and weapon smuggling.
Iran’s intelligence network is not a monolithic entity but a web of competing and cooperating factions that execute the regime’s global ambitions. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Quds Force, and Ministry of Intelligence each play distinct yet overlapping roles in conducting assassinations, abductions, and sabotage operations worldwide. While institutional rivalries persist, their shared objective—suppressing dissent and expanding Iran’s geopolitical reach—ensures continued collaboration.
On February 2, a drone targeted the Khor Mor gas field in the autonomous Kurdistan Region of Iraq. Dana Gas, which runs the facility, said that operations continued as normal, and there were no injuries. The same area has been attacked several times in recent years, including by an Iranian-type Shahed drone in April 2024. The US Embassy condemned the attack, and Iraq’s prime minister called for an investigation.
Pro-Iranian militias in Iraq, collectively part of the Hashd al Shaabi (Popular Mobilization Units), face increasing calls to place their arms under state control or lay them down entirely. The fall of the Assad regime, a new administration in Washington, and the Gaza ceasefire have put these groups under the spotlight in Iraqi politics.
The Biden administration removed the Houthis from the list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations in 2021 and didn’t re-list the group despite over 15 months of missile and drone attacks on US naval forces, international shipping, and Israel. The Trump administration ordered re-listing the Houthis after two days in office.
Bill is joined by show regular Edmund Fitton-Brown to discuss Edmund’s latest analysis for FDD’s Long War Journal: The role of Iraqi Shia militias as proxies in Iran’s Axis of Resistance.
Bill is joined by his FDD colleagues David Daoud and Jon Schanzer — who literally wrote the book on conflict in Gaza — to discuss the ceasefire and hostage deal that has just been reached between Israel and Hamas.
Iraq’s Shia militias play a unique part in Iran’s Axis of Resistance and present distinct challenges for the US, Israel, and the Iraqi state. Notably, a more direct conflict between the militias and the US and Israel would imperil the Iraqi government’s ability to balance its relationships with Iran and the US, along with the country’s essential stability.
Lebanon did not thoroughly inspect a Mahan Air Flight suspected of carrying funds for Hezbollah. It engaged in an act of theater to deny Israel justification to resume fighting the group in light of Beirut’s failure to implement its obligations under the November 27, 2024, ceasefire agreement.
The Tehran regime faces significant challenges, including the diminished influence of its regional proxies and the potential for an Israeli strike on its nuclear facilities. In response, the Islamic Republic has devised a three-pronged strategy: bolstering morale through propaganda, conducting extensive military drills as a deterrent, and amplifying support for its remaining proxies.
A recent declaration by the League of Arab States chastising Iran for “inciting strife among the Syrian people” and the weakened positions of or hedging by Tehran’s regional proxies signal Iran’s diminishing influence.
The sudden collapse of the Islamic Republic’s closest state-actor ally stunned the world as Syrian rebels captured Damascus in just 11 days after launching a new wave of insurgency. To deflect this humiliating defeat, Iranian officials have claimed that the Tehran-Damascus alliance had been weakening and that Iran no longer aimed to preserve the Assad dynasty. However, leaks from Tehran and insights into Iranian regional strategy tell a different story: Iran was incapable of safeguarding the Syrian regime, and its collapse has sparked internal divisions among Iranian officials.
Israeli Minister of Defense Israel Katz met with Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Chief of the General Staff Herzi Halevi on December 5 as the situation in Syria shifts rapidly. “The IDF monitors developments and is prepared for all scenarios, offensive and defensive alike. The IDF will not tolerate threats near the Lebanon-Syria border and will thwart any threat against the State of Israel,” the IDF said in a statement. It is the second high-level meeting Israel has had in the wake of the Syrian regime losing ground to opposition forces. At the same time, the IDF continues to operate in southern Lebanon.
Just a year ago, the Islamic Republic was on the offensive as it used its proxies to launch coordinated attacks on Israel from six fronts to demonstrate the extent of its regional influence. Now, the momentum has shifted. Israeli operations have severely weakened Hamas and Hezbollah, Syrian rebels backed by Turkey wage a relentless war against Assad, and the United States targets Iranian-backed militia bases across Syria.
With Israel and Hamas having reached a ceasefire agreement, the rhetoric coming from Tehran is far from de-escalatory. Military and civilian officials within the Islamic Republic continue to underscore their commitment to rebuilding Hezbollah’s capabilities and have reiterated threats of launching a third phase of the “True Promise” operation against Israel.
Hezbollah launched numerous barrages of rockets at Israel on November 26 as reports in Israel indicated a possible ceasefire might be agreed to this week. The IDF focused its attacks on Hezbollah’s weapons smuggling networks that stretch into Syria and are backed by Iran. In addition, the IDF showed off some of the vehicles and Iranian weapons it has seized in Lebanon.
Ali Mousa Daqduq was one of the founders of Iraq’s Iran-backed militias that are responsible for killing over 600 American soldiers in Iraq. Daqduq was in US custody in 2007 before being handed over to the Iraqi government, which subsequently freed him in 2011. He returned to Hezbollah and served as deputy commander of the Radwan Force when he was killed.