The Biden administration removed the Houthis from the list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations in 2021 and didn’t re-list the group despite over 15 months of missile and drone attacks on US naval forces, international shipping, and Israel. The Trump administration ordered re-listing the Houthis after two days in office.
Bill is joined by show regular Edmund Fitton-Brown to discuss Edmund’s latest analysis for FDD’s Long War Journal: The role of Iraqi Shia militias as proxies in Iran’s Axis of Resistance.
Bill is joined by his FDD colleagues David Daoud and Jon Schanzer — who literally wrote the book on conflict in Gaza — to discuss the ceasefire and hostage deal that has just been reached between Israel and Hamas.
Iraq’s Shia militias play a unique part in Iran’s Axis of Resistance and present distinct challenges for the US, Israel, and the Iraqi state. Notably, a more direct conflict between the militias and the US and Israel would imperil the Iraqi government’s ability to balance its relationships with Iran and the US, along with the country’s essential stability.
Lebanon did not thoroughly inspect a Mahan Air Flight suspected of carrying funds for Hezbollah. It engaged in an act of theater to deny Israel justification to resume fighting the group in light of Beirut’s failure to implement its obligations under the November 27, 2024, ceasefire agreement.
The Tehran regime faces significant challenges, including the diminished influence of its regional proxies and the potential for an Israeli strike on its nuclear facilities. In response, the Islamic Republic has devised a three-pronged strategy: bolstering morale through propaganda, conducting extensive military drills as a deterrent, and amplifying support for its remaining proxies.
A recent declaration by the League of Arab States chastising Iran for “inciting strife among the Syrian people” and the weakened positions of or hedging by Tehran’s regional proxies signal Iran’s diminishing influence.
The sudden collapse of the Islamic Republic’s closest state-actor ally stunned the world as Syrian rebels captured Damascus in just 11 days after launching a new wave of insurgency. To deflect this humiliating defeat, Iranian officials have claimed that the Tehran-Damascus alliance had been weakening and that Iran no longer aimed to preserve the Assad dynasty. However, leaks from Tehran and insights into Iranian regional strategy tell a different story: Iran was incapable of safeguarding the Syrian regime, and its collapse has sparked internal divisions among Iranian officials.
Israeli Minister of Defense Israel Katz met with Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Chief of the General Staff Herzi Halevi on December 5 as the situation in Syria shifts rapidly. “The IDF monitors developments and is prepared for all scenarios, offensive and defensive alike. The IDF will not tolerate threats near the Lebanon-Syria border and will thwart any threat against the State of Israel,” the IDF said in a statement. It is the second high-level meeting Israel has had in the wake of the Syrian regime losing ground to opposition forces. At the same time, the IDF continues to operate in southern Lebanon.
Just a year ago, the Islamic Republic was on the offensive as it used its proxies to launch coordinated attacks on Israel from six fronts to demonstrate the extent of its regional influence. Now, the momentum has shifted. Israeli operations have severely weakened Hamas and Hezbollah, Syrian rebels backed by Turkey wage a relentless war against Assad, and the United States targets Iranian-backed militia bases across Syria.
With Israel and Hamas having reached a ceasefire agreement, the rhetoric coming from Tehran is far from de-escalatory. Military and civilian officials within the Islamic Republic continue to underscore their commitment to rebuilding Hezbollah’s capabilities and have reiterated threats of launching a third phase of the “True Promise” operation against Israel.
Hezbollah launched numerous barrages of rockets at Israel on November 26 as reports in Israel indicated a possible ceasefire might be agreed to this week. The IDF focused its attacks on Hezbollah’s weapons smuggling networks that stretch into Syria and are backed by Iran. In addition, the IDF showed off some of the vehicles and Iranian weapons it has seized in Lebanon.
Ali Mousa Daqduq was one of the founders of Iraq’s Iran-backed militias that are responsible for killing over 600 American soldiers in Iraq. Daqduq was in US custody in 2007 before being handed over to the Iraqi government, which subsequently freed him in 2011. He returned to Hezbollah and served as deputy commander of the Radwan Force when he was killed.
Israel’s recent kidnapping of a Lebanese naval officer, allegedly a senior official in Hezbollah’s small, elite naval unit, may have as much to do with disrupting Iranian attempts to resupply Hezbollah’s degraded arsenal by sea as it does with learning more about the secretive unit’s fighting capabilities.
Israel has focused on degrading Hezbollah’s Unit 4400, which is tasked with supplying the group with weapons and funds. Israel’s spate of attacks has impacted the unit’s ability to function and Hezbollah’s battle-readiness during the current campaign. However, it remains too soon to determine the long-term impact on Hezbollah’s organizational integrity.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducted airstrikes targeting sites belonging to Hezbollah’s intelligence headquarters in Syria.
On October 30, Naim Qassem delivered his first speech as Hezbollah’s new secretary-general. Qassem stressed his intention to continue in Nasrallah’s footsteps and that Hezbollah would continue its war with Israel until a ceasefire was reached on the group’s terms.
Seven Israelis were killed by Hezbollah rocket fire on October 31: five people in an agricultural area near Metula in northern Israel and two others while harvesting olives near Haifa. The IDF carried out airstrikes in Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah’s command and control and weapons storage facilities.
As Iran attempts to save face following Israel’s recent military strike, conflicting narratives about the imperative to respond are coming to the fore.
Israel faces a rising drone threat from Iranian-backed proxies. On October 22, Israel confirmed that a drone attack on October 19 had struck a residence of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and Hezbollah took responsibility for the attack. Hezbollah also killed four IDF soldiers and wounded 60 in an attack on an IDF training base on October 13. Israel’s Minister of Defense held a trial for defense companies to showcase technology to counter drone threats on October 14.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) began waves of strikes on a financial organization it states has branches across Lebanon and is used to fund Hezbollah’s terror activities. An Israeli military assessment reports the IDF has hit 3,200 Hezbollah targets and killed seven of the group’s brigade commanders and 21 of its battalion commanders since the operation in Lebanon began almost a month ago.
Despite allegedly leaked documents from US agencies and Tehran’s ongoing intelligence operations aimed at disrupting an Israeli attack, Iran is bracing itself for an operation targeting its nuclear facilities. The situation has only intensified after Hezbollah’s botched attempt to assassinate Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Israel’s war cabinet has reportedly agreed on what Iranian targets to strike, so the question now is what method it will employ to carry out the attacks to effectively deter Tehran without escalating into a full-scale war. In doing so, Israel has two choices: to either publicly humiliate the regime or launch a series of covert attacks, and the latter is less likely to warrant Tehran’s retaliation.
While the United States is focused on the election, the domestic terrorism warning signs are still blinking red. Over the last few months, the Department of Justice has indicted another Islamic State terrorist and uncovered an Iranian assassination plot against former President Donald Trump.
Sinwar was the mastermind behind the October 7, 2023, assault on Israel and was perhaps the most wanted Hamas terrorist by Israel. A veteran of Hamas since the 1980s, Sinwar established the group’s security service and rose to lead Hamas in August 2024 after his predecessor was assassinated in Tehran, Iran.
The appointment of Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Fallahzadeh as Hezbollah’s “supervisor” underscores the growing challenges faced by Iran and its proxies amid Israel’s military and intelligence operations. The inability to establish stable leadership within Hezbollah not only reflects Israel’s tactical successes but also reveals deep fractures within the Axis of Resistance. The heightened paranoia among Iranian leaders suggests a precarious future for the Islamic Republic’s efforts to maintain control over its oldest proxy.
The conflict between Hezbollah and Israel that began on October 8, 2023, has evolved into a protracted war of attrition that neither side initially expected to last this long. Hezbollah’s goal was to support Gaza by diverting the Israelis’ attention and impacting their morale, but the group miscalculated Israel’s resolve, leading to an extended and more intense conflict.
Israel announced that it killed Hashem Safieddine, the likely successor to Hezbollah’s longtime Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah. Safieddine was a veteran Hezbollah leader, and the group has suffered significant losses to its leadership cadre.
Israel commemorated the anniversary of the October 7 massacre as Hamas fired more than 135 rockets at southern and central Israel, Iraqi militias targeted Israel with drones, and the Houthis launched a long-range missile at central Israel. The IDF’s top general met with the head of US Central Command on October 6. A third IDF division began operations in Lebanon as the Israeli Air Force hit 120 Hezbollah targets.
On the anniversary of the October 7 terrorist attack, the Islamic Republic has pledged to target Israeli cities and critical infrastructure while US and Israeli officials consider their options in response to Tehran’s second ballistic missile assault. With Israel’s air defense capabilities demonstrating superiority over Iranian missiles and the military setbacks suffered by the regime’s proxies, Tehran has increasingly diminished its leverage over Jerusalem. This shifting dynamic offers Israel a strategic opportunity to target the regime’s nuclear facilities, addressing the primary existential threat it faces.