Analysis: Iran reacts to Israel’s direct retaliation
As Iran attempts to save face following Israel’s recent military strike, conflicting narratives about the imperative to respond are coming to the fore.
As Iran attempts to save face following Israel’s recent military strike, conflicting narratives about the imperative to respond are coming to the fore.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) suffered losses in Lebanon and Gaza over two days of fighting. On October 24, the IDF announced the names of five fallen soldiers killed in Lebanon, and the Israeli military announced the names of eight more killed in Lebanon and Gaza on October 25. IDF Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi visited troops in Jabaliya in northern Gaza, where he praised their determination in recent weeks of fighting Hamas.
Israel faces a rising drone threat from Iranian-backed proxies. On October 22, Israel confirmed that a drone attack on October 19 had struck a residence of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and Hezbollah took responsibility for the attack. Hezbollah also killed four IDF soldiers and wounded 60 in an attack on an IDF training base on October 13. Israel’s Minister of Defense held a trial for defense companies to showcase technology to counter drone threats on October 14.
The IDF released new details on how its troops encountered Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and several other Hamas members in southern Gaza on October 16. Israel’s defense minister called on Hamas to surrender and for Gazans to release the 101 hostages still held in captivity. The IDF continued operations in Jabaliya in northern Gaza.
Sinwar was the mastermind behind the October 7, 2023, assault on Israel and was perhaps the most wanted Hamas terrorist by Israel. A veteran of Hamas since the 1980s, Sinwar established the group’s security service and rose to lead Hamas in August 2024 after his predecessor was assassinated in Tehran, Iran.
The 162nd Division of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has been fighting in Jabaliya in northern Gaza for 10 days and found weapons and explosives during the operation. There have also been clashes with terrorists, and Hamas fighters have been eliminated. The IDF transferred 30 trucks of humanitarian aid into northern Gaza amid concerns about civilians.
Israel commemorated the anniversary of the October 7 massacre as Hamas fired more than 135 rockets at southern and central Israel, Iraqi militias targeted Israel with drones, and the Houthis launched a long-range missile at central Israel. The IDF’s top general met with the head of US Central Command on October 6. A third IDF division began operations in Lebanon as the Israeli Air Force hit 120 Hezbollah targets.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) launched a new operation in northern Gaza directed at Hamas terrorists in Jabliya, an area the IDF has cleared three times during the war. The new operation, launched as Israel prepares for the anniversary of the October 7 attack, began after the Israeli military detected evidence that Hamas was seeking to rebuild its forces there.
The IDF carried out airstrikes on the Iranian-backed Houthis in Hudaydah using dozens of aircraft. An Israeli missile ship intercepted a UAV launched at Israel, and Iranian-backed militias in Iraq took credit for the attack. Israeli forces in Gaza uncovered a tunnel. Hezbollah carried out numerous rocket attacks on Israel on September 29, and the IDF continued strikes on the terrorist group. The IDF confirmed that more than 20 Hezbollah members were eliminated in the September 27 strike which killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut.
The Israel Defense Forces launched wide-ranging airstrikes on Hezbollah after previously carrying out a strike in Beirut that eliminated 16 of the group’s top commanders. More than 150 Israel Air Force warplanes participated in the attacks, and Hezbollah launched more than 150 rockets, missiles, and drones at Israel during roughly the same period.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) deployed the 5th Brigade to central Gaza’s Netzarim Corridor, according to an IDF statement on September 16. The reserve infantry brigade recently completed training in Israel’s southern Negev Desert, in which it prepared for ground operations on the kind of terrain it will face in central Gaza. Deploying reserve units has become routine as the IDF rotates forces into central Gaza.
The IDF carried out an airstrike on three Hamas commanders who had set up a command-and-control center in the humanitarian zone in Gaza, the IDF said on September 10. In addition, the IDF targeted a Hamas battalion commander and three of his company commanders in southern Gaza. The strikes illustrate a wider campaign by the IDF to target Hamas’ remaining command-and-control centers.
FDD’s Long War Journal has identified 26 West Bank branches belonging to established terrorist organizations and two independent armed groups, mapped and detailed on an interactive visual.
The Israel Defense Forces’ 162nd Division eliminated 200 terrorists in battles near Rafah and the Philadelphi Corridor in southern Gaza during the last week of August. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to keep control of the key area to prevent Hamas from re-arming.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant held a strategic discussion with IDF Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi on August 29 and discussed the need to return Israeli citizens to their homes in northern Israel. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu traveled to northern Israel on August 28 and said the nation must restore security and return residents to their homes. “This is a national goal of the highest order,” Netanyahu said.
Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi visited the Jordan Valley on August 27, where he met with officers of the Jordan Valley Brigade and spoke with the heads of local communities. His visit comes after several recent terror attacks in the valley and as threats have increased in the northern West Bank.
The Israeli military launched an extensive operation in the West Bank on Tuesday aimed at degrading infrastructure established by terrorist groups in the territory.
Israel is waging a campaign of targeted eliminations against members of various terrorist groups who are orchestrating violence in the West Bank.
On August 21, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant visited the Philadelphi Corridor in southern Gaza and met with commanders of the 162nd Division, which has been fighting Hamas in Rafah since May. Gallant said the Hamas Rafah Brigade has been defeated. The IDF continued to expand operations in Khan Younis and central Gaza, and one Israeli soldier was killed, the IDF said on August 23.
The Islamic Republic has scaled back its rhetoric against Israel by exercising “strategic ambiguity” and “tactical retreat” while claiming that “time is on [Tehran’s] side.” Israel’s ongoing onslaught against Iran-backed groups in Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon suggests otherwise.
On August 20, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced recovering the bodies of six hostages in Khan Younis in southern Gaza. In addition, Israeli forces found a tunnel in Gaza that stretches for more than a mile.
Hamas and Islamic Jihad took credit for a suicide bombing attack in Tel Aviv on Sunday evening. In the aftermath, Palestinian social media became rife with propaganda lauding the bomber and encouraging copycat attacks against Israeli civilians.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) called on Palestinian civilians to evacuate several neighborhoods in southern Gaza after receiving continued rocket fire and detecting terrorist activity. Hamas attempted to target Tel Aviv with two long-range rockets on August 13. The IDF struck 30 targets in Gaza between August 10 and 11, and the continued fighting in southern Gaza comes amid Iran’s threats to target Israel in a broader attack.
Following the elimination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31, Hamas announced the selection of Yahya Sinwar as the group’s head on August 6.
Despite Israel’s precision strike on a radar facility in Isfahan on April 19 and the recent assassination of Hamas Political Chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, Iran remains undeterred from picking a fight with conventionally superior and even nuclear-armed states. For a regime that has perfected the art of proxy warfare, the Islamic Republic is increasingly seeing the political utility of overt and attributable conflict in the Middle East.
A speech by Hassan Nasrallah, the secretary general of Hezbollah, suggests Hezbollah intends to conduct painful retaliation for Fuad Shukur’s assassination but that the organization is still not interested in escalating to a full-scale conflict with Israel. When it comes, the retaliatory strike will likely aim to remain below the threshold that leads to the outbreak of war.
Hezbollah launched a barrage of rockets targeting the western Galilee on the evening of August 1. Iran and Hezbollah have vowed to retaliate against Israel for the killing of a senior Hezbollah commander in Beirut and Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. The IDF continues to operate in Gaza, targeting Hamas operatives hiding in a school and a man the IDF accused of being a terrorist who used journalism work as a cover.
The Israeli Security Agency (ISA) and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed on August 1 that a July 13 airstrike had successfully killed Hamas’ military commander, Mohammed Diab Ibrahim al-Masri, also known as Muhammed Deif.
The Israel Defense Forces targeted a building in Beirut and eliminated senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr on July 30. In the early hours of July 31, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Tehran. Israel did not take credit for the latter killing, but Iran and its proxies have blamed Israel and vowed to respond, and Israel is preparing for possible attacks.
Haniyeh represented Hamas in high-stakes negotiations and was one of the key public faces of the Palestinian terrorist group.