Israel has focused on degrading Hezbollah’s Unit 4400, which is tasked with supplying the group with weapons and funds. Israel’s spate of attacks has impacted the unit’s ability to function and Hezbollah’s battle-readiness during the current campaign. However, it remains too soon to determine the long-term impact on Hezbollah’s organizational integrity.
On October 30, Naim Qassem delivered his first speech as Hezbollah’s new secretary-general. Qassem stressed his intention to continue in Nasrallah’s footsteps and that Hezbollah would continue its war with Israel until a ceasefire was reached on the group’s terms.
As Iran attempts to save face following Israel’s recent military strike, conflicting narratives about the imperative to respond are coming to the fore.
Israel faces a rising drone threat from Iranian-backed proxies. On October 22, Israel confirmed that a drone attack on October 19 had struck a residence of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and Hezbollah took responsibility for the attack. Hezbollah also killed four IDF soldiers and wounded 60 in an attack on an IDF training base on October 13. Israel’s Minister of Defense held a trial for defense companies to showcase technology to counter drone threats on October 14.
Despite allegedly leaked documents from US agencies and Tehran’s ongoing intelligence operations aimed at disrupting an Israeli attack, Iran is bracing itself for an operation targeting its nuclear facilities. The situation has only intensified after Hezbollah’s botched attempt to assassinate Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Israel’s war cabinet has reportedly agreed on what Iranian targets to strike, so the question now is what method it will employ to carry out the attacks to effectively deter Tehran without escalating into a full-scale war. In doing so, Israel has two choices: to either publicly humiliate the regime or launch a series of covert attacks, and the latter is less likely to warrant Tehran’s retaliation.
The appointment of Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Fallahzadeh as Hezbollah’s “supervisor” underscores the growing challenges faced by Iran and its proxies amid Israel’s military and intelligence operations. The inability to establish stable leadership within Hezbollah not only reflects Israel’s tactical successes but also reveals deep fractures within the Axis of Resistance. The heightened paranoia among Iranian leaders suggests a precarious future for the Islamic Republic’s efforts to maintain control over its oldest proxy.
The conflict between Hezbollah and Israel that began on October 8, 2023, has evolved into a protracted war of attrition that neither side initially expected to last this long. Hezbollah’s goal was to support Gaza by diverting the Israelis’ attention and impacting their morale, but the group miscalculated Israel’s resolve, leading to an extended and more intense conflict.
On the anniversary of the October 7 terrorist attack, the Islamic Republic has pledged to target Israeli cities and critical infrastructure while US and Israeli officials consider their options in response to Tehran’s second ballistic missile assault. With Israel’s air defense capabilities demonstrating superiority over Iranian missiles and the military setbacks suffered by the regime’s proxies, Tehran has increasingly diminished its leverage over Jerusalem. This shifting dynamic offers Israel a strategic opportunity to target the regime’s nuclear facilities, addressing the primary existential threat it faces.
The Israel Defense (IDF) Forces began a ground operation in southern Lebanon against Hezbollah, led by the IDF’s 98th Division. The IDF described the offensive as “localized, and targeted ground raids based on precise intelligence against Hezbollah terrorist targets and infrastructure in southern Lebanon.” Iran launched 180 ballistic missiles at Israel, while Hezbollah fired rocket barrages at northern and central Israel.
The Iranian regime’s current strategy seems focused on damage control, as it believes maintaining a foundation allows it to eventually regain influence in southern Lebanon. The Islamic Republic aims to create an image of total warfare through a series of calculated proxy attacks. This approach not only projects strength to its supporters but also bets on the possibility that the United States will pressure Israel to stop its strikes against Iranian militias.
The Israel Defense Forces launched wide-ranging airstrikes on Hezbollah after previously carrying out a strike in Beirut that eliminated 16 of the group’s top commanders. More than 150 Israel Air Force warplanes participated in the attacks, and Hezbollah launched more than 150 rockets, missiles, and drones at Israel during roughly the same period.
After a week of exploding pagers and radios, Israel carried out a significant and successful strike targeting Hezbollah military leaders in Beirut.
On September 19, the IDF asked residents of several northern towns and the city of Safed to adhere to special restrictions due to possible escalation with Hezbollah in Lebanon. On September 20, the IDF lifted the restrictions, even as Israel carried out an airstrike in Beirut that eliminated a Hezbollah leader and key Hezbollah commanders. The IDF Chief of Staff met with the head of the IDF’s Northern Command and IDF Division commanders, while Israel’s Minister of Defense also held key meetings about Israel’s new initiatives against Hezbollah.
Hezbollah’s promised retaliation after Israel killed Fuad Shukr on July 31 finally came this Sunday. But the great vengeance promised by Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah turned out to be a flop. Nasrallah’s subsequent speech after Hezbollah’s attack was a transparent exercise in damage control.
As soon as the Islamic Republic of Iran was established, it effectively declared war on Israel and the West. International appeasement of Iran has failed, and the current crisis in the Middle East has clarified that a more forceful Western policy is required now to forestall a more dangerous confrontation a few years later.
The Islamic Republic has scaled back its rhetoric against Israel by exercising “strategic ambiguity” and “tactical retreat” while claiming that “time is on [Tehran’s] side.” Israel’s ongoing onslaught against Iran-backed groups in Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon suggests otherwise.
Saraya al-Ashtar, an Iranian proxy in Bahrain, claims it has now joined the fighting against Israel. This claim is unconfirmed.
“Hezbollah Brigades has the capacity to fight against its enemies and confront them by relying on the internal resources of the resistance,” a key Hezbollah Brigades official said. “We are ready for a war of attrition that may last for years, firmly believing in victory.”