The Islamic State claims to have carried out 120 “martyrdom operations” in Iraq and Syria in October. Seventy-nine (79) of these suicide bombings were purportedly launched around the city of Mosul. The so-called caliphate has claimed 902 “martyrdom operations” in Iraq, Libya and Syria during the first ten months of 2016. If accurate, then the group is carrying out suicide attacks at a historically high rate.
Video surfaced of Hezbollah fighters training Iraqi Shiite militants near Mosul this week. They are not wearing their militia’s insignia, but their distinct southern Lebanese accents betray their membership in the Lebanon-based Iranian proxy group.
Iranian-backed Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) launched an operation in the western axis of Mosul on Oct. 30, and announced on Nov. 2 that they cut off the Islamic State’s supply route from Mosul to Raqqa. The PMF is advancing towards the town of Tal Afar west of Mosul, which has Sunni Turkmen population.
The Islamic State has released an audio message from Abu Bakr al Baghdadi. It is the first message from Baghdadi in nearly one year. Baghdadi frames the wars being fought in Iraq and elsewhere in sectarian terms and says that his men are waging a “grand jihad” against their many enemies.
The Defense Department announced today that Haydar Kirkan, a veteran al Qaeda operative who was plotting against the West, was killed in an airstrike in Idlib, Syria on Oct. 17. Kirkan was one of several al Qaeda leaders targeted in Afghanistan, Syria and Yemen during the month of October. The Pentagon emphasized that the airstrikes demonstrate the “transregional nature” of al Qaeda.
The US military’s estimate does not explain how the Taliban is able to support multiple concurrent offensives across the country and threaten five provincial capitals. Additionally, the military claims that only 3 of Helmand’s 14 districts are threatened by the Taliban.
Indicators suggest that Tehran supports the Houthi anti-ship missile attack against the US Navy this past week. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps held the US directly responsible for the devastating Saudi-led coalition bombing last week in Sanaa, Yemen. The IRGC sought to pressure the US in order to push the Saudis to deescalate the war, calculating that the US wants to avoid more involvement in the war in Yemen.
The Islamic State has officially recognized a loyalty oath sworn by Abu Walid al Sahrawi, a jihadist based in West Africa. Sahrawi first swore his fealty to Abu Bakr al Baghdadi in May 2015. It is not clear why it took so long for the so-called caliphate to recognize him as one of its representatives.
Al Qaeda’s rebranded guerrilla army in Syria is fighting alongside other jihadists, Islamists and Free Syrian Army-branded rebels in an offensive intended to break the Assad regime’s siege of Aleppo. Most of the participating groups belong to two coalitions: Jaysh al Fath (“Army of Conquest”) and Fatah Halab (“Aleppo Conquest”). These same two alliances tried and failed to break the siege earlier this year.
At least 11 rocket launchers, four howitzers (including two US-made M198 howitzers), one American-made M1 Abrams, and one US M88 Recovery Vehicle were spotted in a Hezbollah Brigades convoy moving towards Mosul.
There have been at least 31 airstrikes against AQAP in Yemen in 2016, according to data compiled by The Long War Journal.
The US targeted Faruq al Qatani and Bilal al Utabi in an airstrike in Kunar Province, Afghanistan on Oct. 23. Both of them have been involved in al Qaeda’s anti-Western plotting, according to the Pentagon. Qatani was identified as a key al Qaeda commander in Osama bin Laden’s files.
Lt. Gen. Stephen Townsend said today that the Islamic State is planning attacks against the West (“external operations”) from its headquarters in Raqqa, Syria. Townsend didn’t provide any specifics, but the group has used its safe havens to orchestrate multiple plots in the past.
This marks the first time the fledgling Islamic State branch has claimed control over a town in Somalia.
Islamic State’s Khorasan province and the Karachi faction of the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan both claimed credit for the attack on a police academy in Quetta that killed more than 60 cadets. Pakistani officials claimed the suicide assault was executed by Lashkar-e-Jhangvi al Almi.
Six provincial capitals now are threatened by the Taliban. On Oct. 16, the Taliban assaulted Maimana, Faryab’s capital from three directions and attacked the city’s airport and an Afghan Army base, but were repulsed by Afghan forces.
The US carried out 330 airstrikes against the Islamic State in Sirte, Libya between Aug. 1 and Oct. 18, according to data released by US Africa Command. Nearly half of these (150) were launched during the first 18 days of October. The figures indicate that the American air campaign has accelerated in its third month as the US and its Libyan allies are still trying to eject the Islamic State from the city.
The fight in Iraq, as in other jihadist theaters, ebbs and flows. For the Islamic State, it is currently retreating from many of the cities it once held. But do not expect a lasting defeat of the Islamic State.
The Islamic State claims to have carried out 12 suicide bombings south and east of Mosul during the first hours of the battle to retake the city. However, the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) claims that the suicide attackers were neutralized. The so-called caliphate has increasingly relied on its “martyrs” as it has lost ground in the past.
A Taliban video documents the aftermath of last week’s ambush on Afghan security personnel on the outskirts the provincial capital of Helmand which resulted in scores of troops killed and dozens more captured.
The anti-Islamic State coalition, which includes Kurdish, Sunni, and Shiite militias, has begun the operation to retake Mosul. Iranian-backed Shiite militias are expected to play a key role in the upcoming battle.
A deeper look at a recent airstrike in Sanaa by the Saudi-led military coalition, where Iranian security elites display a penchant for narrative, a circumscription of their own support for the war, as well the traditional blaming of the United States. In so doing, light is shed on how these security planners see their regional rivalries.
Iran’s conventional Navy reportedly deployed two vessels to international waters surrounding Yemen yesterday. First reported in the semi-official Iranian press, the story has also been noted in the Western press, where it was framed as part of the larger Saudi-Iranian rivalry and the ongoing war in Yemen.
On Oct. 9, a statement attributed to Mokhtar Belmokhtar was circulated online. The message eulogizes Sheikh Ag Aoussa, a prominent Tuareg leader who was reportedly killed in an explosion after attending a meeting at a UN camp in Mali. The statement’s author, presumably Belmokhtar, blames France for Aoussa’s death and calls on tribes to turn against the French.
Top commanders in the Quds Brigade, a Palestinian militia allied with the Syrian government that operates in Aleppo, have been photographed receiving medals from Russian military officers for battlefield victories.
The Taliban threatens two capitals in the north (Kunduz City and Pul-i-Khumri), two in the south (Tarin Kot and Lashkar Gah), and one in the west (Farah City).
The US military launched missile strikes on three radar sites in a Houthi-controlled area of Yemen. The strikes came in response to two attacks on the USS Mason earlier this week. The Houthis’ insurgency in Yemen is backed by Iran and has greatly complicated US counterterrorism efforts.
The Islamic State’s Amaq News Agency claims that the so-called caliphate launched 53 “martyrdom operations” in Iraq and Syria in September. This is less than any previous month in 2016. But the Islamic State has claimed 782 suicide bombings in Iraq, Syria and Libya during the first nine months of 2016, for an average of 87 per month. If accurate, this is a historically high rate.
Two top officials from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Qods Force (IRGC-QF) delivered remarks commemorating the most senior IRGC commander killed in Syria last year. Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the IRGC-QF, spoke about the strategic importance of Syria, and claimed that the Islamic State was established with the goal of threatening Iran.
Jund al Aqsa has sworn allegiance to Jabhat Fath al Sham, al Qaeda’s rebranded branch in Syria. Jund al Aqsa itself is an al Qaeda front group. The move comes after weeks of infighting between Jund al Aqsa and other groups opposed to Bashar al Assad’s regime.