Taliban advances as U.S. completes withdrawal
The Taliban and al Qaeda advanced throughout Afghanistan after President Biden announced the withdrawal of American and NATO forces on Apr. 14.
Category Archives: Long War Journal
Taliban squeezes Afghan government by seizing key border towns
The Taliban’s strategy of seizing rural districts has not only allowed it to surround major cities and put pressure on population centers, it has also enabled it to squeeze the Afghan government’s revenue from goods crossing the border.
Taliban assaults northern provincial capital
The Taliban entered Qala-i-Naw, the provincial capital of Badghis, stormed the city’s prison and freed inmates, and briefly seized control of the governor’s office and the police and National Directorate of Security headquarters before government forces counterattacked.
Afghanistan at risk of collapse as Taliban storms the north
The importance of the Taliban’s northern thrust cannot be understated. If the Taliban can deny Afghanistan’s government and its backers their base of power, Afghanistan is effectively lost.
Shabaab takes credit for suicide bombing at a Mogadishu cafe
The bombing appears to have been part of a larger effort against Somalia’s main intelligence apparatus.
Hamas defends its military summer camps for children and teenagers
Hamas held a press conference in English explaining why they train children and teenagers at their military summer camps.
Taliban doubles number of controlled Afghan districts since May 1
The Taliban’s multiyear strategy of gaining influence in the rural districts to pressure the population centers is paying dividends.
Taliban’s deputy emir issues guidance for governance in newly seized territory
In a message posted this week, Sirajuddin Haqqani provides guidance to the Taliban’s officials as they prepare to rule over newly seized territory. Haqqani explains that the campaign is evolving from a “military and jihadi” one into a “civilian situation,” meaning the Taliban is preparing to govern throughout much of the country.
Ep. 52 — Mapping the Taliban’s Offensive
Hosts Bill Roggio and Tom Joscelyn discuss the Taliban’s massive offensive in Afghanistan. The campaign demonstrates, once again, that the “peace process” is a Western delusion. They also discuss how Bill’s map of the Taliban’s gains has evolved over time. Powered by RedCircle Take a look around the globe today and you’ll see jihadists fighting everywhere […]
Kunduz province in danger of falling to the Taliban
The Taliban has gone on the offensive in northern Afghanistan and is on the verge of taking control of Kunduz province if Afghan security forces cannot stay the siege of Kunduz City. Kunduz is one of eight provinces in danger of falling to the Taliban before U.S. forces are scheduled to completely withdraw in September. […]
Taliban enters Kunduz City, seizes control of more than 20 districts
The Taliban took control of nine districts in Takhar and is fighting inside Kunduz City. The Afghan military has so far been unable to halt the onslaught, particularly in the north, where the Taliban has the momentum and is dictating the pace of the fighting.
Al-Qassam Brigades announces military training camp for children and teenagers
Al-Qassam Brigades will hold its yearly summer camp for Gaza youth looking to learn basic military training.
Analysis: Ivory Coast witnesses surge in jihadist activity
Northern Ivory Coast has seen a substantial increase in suspected jihadist attacks since March of this year. Much of the violence is emanating from southwestern Burkina Faso, where al Qaeda’s Katibat Macina is expanding.
Taliban takes control of 30 districts in past six weeks
In the six weeks since the May 1 deadline for U.S. troops to withdraw from Afghanistan, the Taliban has seized control of 32 additional districts, their reach spanning half of the country’s 34 provinces.
Al Qaeda figure tied to kidnappings reported killed in Mali
Baye Ag Bakabo is linked to several of AQIM’s kidnappings in Mali, including the operation that left two RFI journalists dead in 2013.
Ep. 51 — How the U.N. assesses al Qaeda and ISIS
Edmund Fitton-Brown joins hosts Tom Joscelyn and Bill Roggio to discuss his team’s most recent report on Afghanistan. Fitton-Brown is a former British diplomat. He is currently coordinator of the U.N. Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team concerning the Islamic State, al-Qaeda, and the Taliban. Powered by RedCircle Take a look around the globe today […]
U.N. report cites new intelligence on Haqqanis’ close ties to al Qaeda
A report by a U.N. monitoring team cites new intelligence concerning Sirajuddin Haqqani’s ties to al Qaeda. The report also mentions the Hattin Shura, which U.S. officials say is the most important decision-making body within al Qaeda.
Taliban seizes eight districts in the past week
The disbursed locations of the Taliban attacks will force the already strained Afghan military to divide its forces if it wants to retake the districts.
Analysis: 17 Palestinian militant factions identified in recent Gaza conflict
More than a dozen Palestinian militants factions fought against the Israel Defense Forces during the recent conflict in Gaza.
Ep. 50 — The Unknowns
Hosts Tom Joscelyn and Bill Roggio discuss the basic epistemological problems that plague analyses of al Qaeda nearly 20 years after 9/11. Powered by RedCircle Take a look around the globe today and you’ll see jihadists fighting everywhere from West Africa to Southeast Asia. They aren’t the dominant force in all of those areas, or […]
UN report on Taliban controlled and contested districts tracks with LWJ data
The United Nations Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team reports that as of April 2021, the Taliban contests or controls “an estimated 50 to 70 per cent of Afghan territory” and exerts “direct control over 57 per cent of district administrative centres.” LWJ’s analysis of the security situation is very similar.
State Department announces reward for information on AQIM leader
The U.S. State Department is offering a reward of up to $7 million for information concerning the leader of AQIM, Abu Ubaydah Yusuf al-Anabi. State says al-Anabi “is expected to play a role in al Qaeda’s global management.”
Shabaab mounts increased rate of attacks inside Kenya
Shabaab, al Qaeda’s branch in East Africa, continues to conduct a high operational tempo inside northeastern Kenya.
Afghan military targets Al Qaeda’s network in Helmand
The Afghan military targeted Al Qaeda’s network in four different districts in Helmand province over the past month. Al Qaeda was operating a “training center” and fighting alongside the Taliban.
Analysis: Predicting the coming Taliban offensive
Taliban will continue to wage its war against a weakened Afghan government to resurrect its Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. A look at how the Taliban may attempt to achieve this goal now that U.S. forces, which were unable to prevent the Taliban from seizing key rural districts, will soon be gone.
Hamas fighter with American citizenship killed in recent Gaza conflict
A Hamas fighter with American citizenship was recently killed in an airstrike during Israeli operations in the Gaza Strip.
Islamic State documents implementation of Sharia law in northern Mali
The photo offers a rare look into jihadist governance in the Sahel, in which jihadists loyal to both al Qaeda and the Islamic State wield both direct and indirect control over many rural areas.
Taliban overruns district in central Afghanistan
With the fall of Dawlat Shah, the Taliban now control one of Laghman’s five districts, and contest the other four. The Taliban is laying the groundwork for a potential siege of Kabul, which likely would take place if the Taliban could first secure the south and east.
Taliban maintains close ties with al Qaeda, DIA reports
According to the DIA, the Taliban has “maintained close ties with al Qaeda” and is “very likely preparing for large-scale offensives against population centers and Afghan government installations.” The DIA’s assessment directly contradicts claims made by Zalmay Khalilzad, the U.S. special representative for Afghanistan reconciliation.
Taliban has ‘surrounded’ five Afghan provincial capitals
FDD’s Long War Journal has assessed that 17 of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces are under direct Taliban threat.