A review of the new Lebanese government’s policy statement reveals some positive changes from the positions of previous governments regarding the official posture on Hezbollah and its arms. Nevertheless, the statement contains subtle but significant loopholes that Hezbollah can exploit to ensure its survival and eventual regeneration.
The Islamic State radicalized Shamsud-Din Jabbar, who killed 14 people in New Orleans on January 1. Subsequent investigations and arrests of additional alleged terrorism plotters by US authorities point to jihadist groups’ continuing propaganda efforts and the threat of attacks on US soil.
A comparison of actions by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) in Lebanon after the ceasefire on November 27, 2024, demonstrates that the Lebanese have not taken significant action against Hezbollah.
On March 6, Syria witnessed the most intense and bloodiest clashes between the new Syrian government and Bashar al Assad loyalists since Assad’s downfall on December 8.
On March 5, Iraqi National Security Advisor Qassem al Araji said that Baghdad is trying to locate kidnapped researcher Elizabeth Tsurkov, an Israeli and Russian citizen who was abducted in March 2023. Israeli officials have blamed Kataib Hezbollah for kidnapping Tsurkov, and her case has received increased attention in the last two months since the Trump administration entered office.
The Trump Administration returned the Houthis to the FTO list after President Donald Trump issued an executive order targeting the group on the second day of his term. The US Treasury followed the FTO designation with a round of sanctions against senior Houthi operatives involved in financing, weapons procurement, and cooperation with the terrorist group’s partners.
A permanent cutoff of all aid likely would not cause a Ukrainian collapse, but it would result in more Ukrainian lives and land lost and more infrastructure destroyed. Challenges would build over time and could exacerbate Kyiv’s manpower shortage, boosting Russian efforts to grind down Ukrainian forces and granting Moscow greater leverage in negotiations.
On February 27, Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) leader Abdullah Ocalan called for his group to disarm and end its conflict with Turkey. The US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in eastern Syria have welcomed this statement, which may provide an opportunity for Turkey to change its policy in Syria, affect US policy, and impact SDF relations with the new government in Damascus.
Tehran’s recent setbacks have paved the way for Ankara’s ascent. The Ankara-backed Azerbaijan’s triumph over Tehran-backed Armenia, Turkish-supported militias outmaneuvering Iran’s influence in Syria, and now, the unraveling of the Iran-backed PKK further tilts the balance in Turkey’s favor.
Israel assassinated Khodr Hashem, the commander of Hezbollah’s Radwan Force’s seaborn forces, in south Lebanon. Hashem was involved in armed activities and maritime weapons smuggling to Hezbollah before and after the November 27, 2024, Lebanon-Israel ceasefire agreement, activities which constituted a violation of the deal.
Over 90 former leaders of the previous Afghan government, civil society representatives, and anti-Taliban resistance leaders attended the conference at the Austrian Institute for International Affairs and called for help forming a transitional government.
An armed group called the Islamic Resistance Front in Syria recently formed with a stated goal of countering Israel’s military presence in the Golan Heights.
Shabaab, al Qaeda’s branch for East Africa, has mounted considerable attacks over the last few weeks in Somalia’s Middle Shabelle and Hiraan regions just north of Mogadishu. The group’s offensive is attempting to reverse much of the federal government’s gains during the government’s counter-Shabaab offensive between 2022 and 2023.
US Central Command killed the top military commander of Hurras al Din, Al Qaeda’s branch in Syria. The Trump administration has targeted Hurras al Din four times since taking office, indicating it is ramping up the pressure on the terror group and its allies.
Lebanon seized $2.5 million in cash destined for Hezbollah carried by a man arriving from Turkey. This development follows Israeli accusations that Turkey is being used as a conduit for Iranian funds to reach Hezbollah and may be facilitating the transfers.
Bill is joined by his FDD colleague and Long War Journal contributor Janatan Sayeh to unpack Iran’s various spheres of influence and threats posed not least of all by their military capabilities from drone technology and nuclear enrichment to increasingly close cooperation with Moscow and Beijing.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) carried out airstrikes in southern Syria on February 25 after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz said that southern Syria must be a demilitarized zone. Local reports said that the strikes hit several areas in Daraa province, not far from Israel’s Golan Heights.
Qatar-funded Al Jazeera provided a platform to two Hamas officials on its panels at the media organization’s recent annual conference. One speaker, Osama Hamdan, praised the October 7 massacre in Israel and the “philosophy of resistance.”
On February 23, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel would not allow forces of the new Syrian army to enter areas south of Damascus. “We demand the full demilitarization of southern Syria,” he said. Individuals in southern Syria protested the statement and Syrian officials condemned Israeli incursions into the country.
Recent statements by Islamic Republic officials indicate Tehran’s staunch commitment to rebuilding Hezbollah’s capabilities and achieving “final victory.” These threats may signal a renewed escalation in the region after Israel’s crippling blow to Iran’s missile arsenal and the collapse of the Islamic Republic’s Syrian ally.
A group of Druze militants in Suwayda, southern Syria, has announced the formation of the Suwayda Military Council, a coalition of local armed groups aimed at protecting the region and maintaining security. The council stated its mission is to safeguard civilians and public property from violence and destruction while strengthening cooperation with other security factions. […]
A US airstrike killed Wasim Tahsin Bayraqdar, who US Central Command (CENTOM) identified as “a senior leadership facilitator” for Hurras al Din. The strike is the third against the Al Qaeda branch since President Donald Trump took office.
Falih al Fayyadh, the head of Iraq’s largely pro-Iranian Popular Mobilization Units (PMU), traveled to Beirut for the funeral of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on February 23. Other senior members of pro-Iranian militias in Iraq also attended the funeral, and several militia leaders put out statements. Hezbollah-affiliated media claimed approximately 200,000 Iraqis came to Lebanon for the event, though this number is unverified.
On February 20, Hamas released four caskets ostensibly carrying the remains of four Israeli hostages to the Red Cross, but one contained the body of a Palestinian woman. Israel has condemned this as a violation of the ceasefire that began in January. Separately, the IDF redeployed an experienced division that served in Gaza and carried out airstrikes against Hezbollah on the Syria-Lebanon border.
Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem delivered a speech on February 16 addressing regional and domestic developments, Beirut banning Iranian flights from landing at Hariri International Airport, and Nasrallah’s upcoming funeral. Qassem called for massive participation in the funeral to deter Hezbollah’s domestic political opponents from targeting the group or its weapons.
On February 18, Falih al Fayyadh, the chairman of Iraq’s largely pro-Iranian Popular Mobilization Units (PMU), visited Tehran and met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. According to reports, Fayyadh also met with Ali Akbar Ahmadian, the head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.
Syria’s interim president, Ahmad al Sharaa, approved the promotion of numerous military commanders, many of whom are foreign fighters previously affiliated with Hayat Tahrir al Sham and other factions that participated in the “Deterring Aggression” campaign against Bashar al Assad.
Four years after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, the threat posed by the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) has expanded beyond the region, now endangering both America and Europe. With the group actively recruiting and transferring fighters across borders, regional actors such as the Taliban, Iran, Tajikistan, and Pakistan have proven unable to curb its growth.
Bill is joined by Caleb Weiss and Edmund Fitton-Brown to discuss the latest UN Sanctions Monitoring Team report on the Islamic State and Al-Qaeda that was released this week.
Ukraine announced a new initiative to expand some of its best drone units and replicate their strengths across the force. Amid a shortage of infantry, Kyiv is leaning even more on drone units to serve as a force multiplier in support of ground troops.