Bill and Wednesday co-host Will Selber explain why Israel is not fighting an insurgency in Gaza as they unpack (and dismantle) a recent Foreign Affairs article authored by David Petraeus et al: “Israel’s War of Regime Change Is Repeating America’s Mistakes: But Israel Can Still Learn From America’s Successes” — wait, what successes? Israel should learn from our mistakes by repeating our mistakes?
The (still technically unofficial) leader of Al Qaeda, Saif al-Adel, wrote an article under a pseudonym calling for people around the world to flock to Afghanistan for training to conduct attacks against “the Zionists.” Clear efforts by Al Qaeda to capitalize on the conflict in Gaza — but is the threat credible? Does al Qaeda in Afghanistan even have the means? Yes and yes, say Bill and Will Selber, LWJ contributor and retired Middle East Foreign Area Officer. They discuss how we give an enemy time and space to innovate and then ignore their threats at our own peril.
The Islamic Republic of Iran tightening its noose around Israel can be evidenced by activity from the Houthis and in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and — lest we forget — the West Bank. How does the West Bank threat compare to the Gaza threat? Who holds power in the West Bank, and which terrorist groups are active there? Top of the list? Islamic Jihad. They discuss Joe’s recent research on the senior members of Islamic Jihad that were killed in a counterterrorism operation in the West Bank and losses suffered by the group’s Syria branch in Lebanon.
Bill and Behnam unpack a recent DIA report on the impact of Houthi attacks on international shipping and discuss everything the Houthis have been able to do with the limited resources supplied by Islamic Republic of Iran (and considering the bang for their buck, why wouldn’t they continue to supply weapons?); the perilous pattern of the U.S. ignoring when its enemies scream from the rooftops what their intentions are; and the credibility of claims made by the Houthi leader that an attack against Israel is being planned with help from the Islamic Resistance in Iraq — should we believe him?
Bill and Joe discuss Israel’s slow news weekend which included a hostage rescue followed by a high-level war cabinet resignation. The floating Gaza pier and al Qaeda are also discussed (because Bill).
Bill and Behnam discuss a Tablet Magazine article “Israel is Succeeding in Gaza” and whether there are any possible “settle-for-less” military and political outcomes in Gaza that involve anything other than the total defeat of Hamas; an IDF soldier killed by Hamas terrorists attempting to infiltrate Israel from Gaza; Iran’s IRGC vowing revenge for an Israeli strike in Syria that allegedly killed an IRGC general; and Israel’s new normal of daily skirmishes with Hezbollah on its northern border.
Bill is joined by FDD colleague and show regular David Daoud for an update on Israel’s other battle on its norther border with Hezbollah.
The botched U.S. withdrawal in 2021 left behind a Taliban-controlled Afghanistan with al-Qaeda running training camps using abandoned American military equipment. Terrorism confined by the borders of Afghanistan until history repeats itself and it isn’t. Luckily, a major resistance movement is taking shape in Afghanistan and attempting to organize against the Taliban.
To learn about three groups that have emerged at the forefront Bill is joined by Will Selber, retired Middle East Foreign Area Officer with multiple deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan.
They discuss who’s who in the resistance, which groups could be effective enough to take the fight to the Taliban (and which should sit it out), the work ahead and what they need for success — including unification.
Bill and Behnam catch up on new Houthi activity, reports of the Iranian regime leveraging criminal groups in Sweden to target Israeli and Jewish interests, and an update on the most expensive piece of performance art in history, the floating humanitarian aid pier in Gaza.
Bill and Behnam discuss the helicopter crash in northern Iran that killed multiple regime officials, chief among them Ebrahim Raisi who was President of the Islamic Republic and a top contender to be the next Supreme Leader. Was it an accident?
Given the Islamic Republic’s constitutional mandate that elections be held to replace Raisi, who might be the next president? What does the president even do? What will it mean for Iran’s foreign and security policy
They also revisit Raisi’s history in the regime or as Behnam calls it, “failing up.” From being the youngest hand-picked by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini to head the infamous “death commission” and implement fatwas issued by the then-Supreme Leader to his days as a hanging judge and heading the judiciary, the “Butcher of Tehran” had a lot of blood on his hands.
Bill is joined again by our most special guest, Long War Journal/Generation Jihad OG and now senior fellow at Just Security, Thomas Joscelyn, to unpack another marathon, closed-door HFAC testimony. This time, the more than 200 pages of testimony they sifted through is from General Miller, the top U.S. general in Afghanistan during the botched withdrawal. They discuss testimony highlights, including when Gen. Miller throws shade at Bill and Tom but in the same breath admits that “they had it right.”
Bill and Joe catch up on the last few days of headlines, including the helicopter crash that killed the Iranian president and foreign minister and whether this will impact Israel’s defensive war in Gaza; the International Criminal Court’s issuing of arrest warrants for Hamas leaders in addition to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Gallant; the situation in Rafah; an airstrike in the West Bank; and Israel recovering the bodies of four hostages.
Bill is joined by Long War Journal regular and long-time friend of the show, Edmund Fitton-Brown to talk about the Houthis. If you’re here, you’ve heard of them — but how much do you actually know about them? What is their relationship with the Islamic Republic of Iran? Why are they in Yemen? Edmund previously served as the United Kingdom’s Ambassador to Yemen, a role which required him to negotiate and spend a significant amount of time in close quarters with Houthi leaders. He details some of his interactions with them and how the experience shapes his understanding of the region today.
Bill and Joe discuss the current low lows of U.S.-Israel relations as Israel prepares to proceed with finishing its stated goal of defeating Hamas without the blessing of its closest ally.
Israel’s operation in Rafah officially underway and met with the threat of pausing military aid from the Biden administration. Bill and Behnam discuss the potential consequences and ripple effects.
Bill and Joe catch up on top Israel headlines, including this weekend’s attack by Hamas that killed four IDF soldiers and in which the Iron Dome was curiously not activated to intercept the rocket fire; the issues of humanitarian aid, pier, and port; the anticipated Rafah operation; the concept of a permanent ceasefire; the cycle of civilians being kidnapped and held hostage by armed Palestinian groups; reports of the U.S. withholding a shipment of military aid to Israel; an update on the eerily quiet West Bank; and Joe’s visit to his local “pro-Palestine protest.”
Bill is joined again by his FDD colleague and show regular David Daoud to unpack issues raised in David’s latest piece for The Wall Street Journal, “Hezbollah Stumbles Into a War of Attrition.” They also catch up on adjacent matters concerning Israel’s ground war in Gaza and the dumpster fire engulfing American “institutions of higher education.”
Another co-host takeover (“Freaky Friday edition”): Behnam is joined by his friend, former FDD colleague, and top expert on Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Ali Alfoneh, now with The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. They discuss this week’s historic conflagration between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Israel.
In a special co-host takeover, Behnam and Joe discuss the Islamic Republic’s unprecedented attack on Israel this weekend.
Bill is joined by LWJ’s Seth Frantzman just after the six-month mark of Israel’s defensive war in Gaza resulting from the October 7 attack by Hamas. They discuss Seth’s latest visit to border communities in Israel and whether there’s a realistic timeline for still-evacuated citizens to return, disturbing reports that Hamas has apparently lost track of which hostages are dead or alive, and Tehran’s possible response to Israel’s April 1 assassination of an IRGC-QF commander in Damascus as we enter day ~seven of bracing for an imminent Iranian attack against Israel within 24-48 hours.
Bill and Joe read between the lines and try to make sense of the IDF’s withdrawal from Khan Younis.
Bill, Behnam, and Joe discuss the Israeli airstrike in Damascus that took out a senior IRGC-QF commander, Israel on high-alert after Iran vows revenge, Lebanese Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s statement about the slain leader, whether the Biden administration has finally turned on Israel, and today’s holiday: Quds Day.
Bill and co-host Caleb catch up on the latest goings on related to the global jihad, including why the Islamic State’s Moscow attack should surprise no one; Shabaab’s rampage in Somalia and the prospect for the state’s survival; rumors that Saif al-Adel’s son has died; and fireworks on the Af-Pak border when the Pakistanis launched airstrikes apparently targeting members of the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban.
Bill, co-host Behnam, and long-time friend of the show Edmund Fitton-Brown preview and share insights from a project they’ve been working on concerning the Islamic Republic of Iran’s axis of resistance. They discuss Tehran’s extensive track record of not playing by the rules — and not paying a price for it — as well as the origins of conflict between Iran and the West from before the 1979 revolution to tapping their regional proxies on and after October 7, 2023 to target Israeli and American interests in the Middle East — and everything in between.
Bill and Joe catch up on a few important headlines related to Israel’s defensive war in Gaza, including U.S. claims that a senior leader of Hamas has been killed while Israel and Hamas have both remained mum; the Rafah operation hold-up; the ramifications of abstaining from the UN Security Council vote on a ceasefire and other recent actions by the U.S. that ultimately help Hamas.
Flying solo for this episode, Bill shares his thoughts on yesterday’s House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing with Generals Milley and McKenzie — including the questions they *should* have asked (but failed to).
Bill and Behnam catch up on recent headlines, including the statement made by a U.S. senator pushing for regime change (spoiler: he was not talking about Iran), reports of a high-level meeting between Iranian and Hezbollah officials, the Houthis continuing their maritime attacks, and more.
Bill and Joe unpack the undertaking of the pier to be built by the U.S. off the coast of Gaza for the purpose of distributing aid (but without boots on the ground?) including some of their general concerns like, “Who is the aid handed off to, Hamas? Who the hell is going to secure this thing?”
They also discuss President Biden’s statement that Israel operating inside Rafah would be “a red line,” how Ramadan has started with no ceasefire in sight, and details surrounding a high-value target that Israel has gone after.
David Daoud joins Bill to discuss President Biden’s announcement that the U.S. military will establish a functional port off the coast of Gaza for the purpose of distributing aid (what could possibly go wrong) as well as the state of Israel’s (increasingly multi-front) war.
Bill and Joe discuss Hezbollah continuing to turn up the heat at Israel’s northern border with an uptick in cross-border attacks amidst foreign fighters also emerging in Lebanon and while the U.S. increases its pressure on Israel to enter a ceasefire before Ramadan.