Author Archives: Thomas Joscelyn

Thomas Joscelyn is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the Senior Editor for FDD's Long War Journal.

Estimated number of Guantanamo recidivists continues to rise

| September 16, 2016

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) released its most recent statistics on Guantanamo recidivism this week. 208 former detainees are either confirmed or suspected of rejoining the jihad. 188 of them were transferred or released during the Bush administration and the remaining 20 by the Obama administration. The estimated number of recidivists has steadily climbed since 2008, when the government first provided statistics on this topic.

Islamic State claims more than 700 suicide attacks since beginning of the year

| September 6, 2016

The Islamic State’s Amaq News Agency has claimed 729 “martyrdom operations” in Iraq, Syria and Libya since the beginning of the year. The figures for August indicate that 81 suicide attacks were carried out in these three countries. If the statistics are accurate, then the self-declared “caliphate” is carrying out suicide bombings at a historically high rate.

Jund al Aqsa uses drone to drop small bomb on Syrian regime forces

| September 2, 2016

Jund al Aqsa, an al Qaeda front group, is playing a major role in the rebel offensive in Hama province. The group released a video earlier today showing one of its drones dropping a small, unguided bomb on Syrian regime forces. Jund al Aqsa has endorsed Al Nusrah Front’s relaunch as Jabhat Fath al Sham (“Conquest of the Levant Front”), saying that al Qaeda’s senior leadership must have determined that it was in the best interests of the people and the jihad in Syria.

Did al Qaeda exchange former Pakistani army chief’s son for Zawahiri’s daughters?

| September 2, 2016

Al Qaeda claims that two of Ayman al Zawahiri’s daughters and a third woman were exchanged for the son of Ashfaq Pervez Kayani in either late July or early August. The Long War Journal cannot independently verify the claim, but it is known that al Qaeda had been trying to exchange at least one kidnapped son of Pakistan’s elite for the women. Al Qaeda announced that the women and their children were released in early August.

Islamic State says senior official killed in Aleppo province

| August 30, 2016

The Islamic State issued a “martyrdom” statement today for Abu Muhammad al Adnani, who was one of the group’s top leaders and spokesman. The Defense Department subsequently confirmed that Adnani was targeted in an airstrike, but added that his status was still being assessed. The Pentagon described Adnani as the “principal architect” of the Islamic State’s “external operations,” meaning the part of the organization devoted to planning attacks in the West and elsewhere abroad.

Zawahiri says jihadists should prepare for guerrilla war in Iraq

| August 26, 2016

In the third episode of his “Brief Messages to a Victorious Ummah” series, Ayman al Zawahiri calls on “the mujahideen of the Levant” to help the jihadists in Iraq “reorganize themselves” for a “protracted” campaign of “guerrilla war.” Zawahiri clearly expects the Islamic State’s caliphate claim to be rendered moot and he wants jihadists to follow a new strategy in Iraq going forward.

The Abu Zubaydah file

| August 24, 2016

The US government has released an unclassified summary of Abu Zubaydah’s career. Some claim that Abu Zubaydah wasn’t really an al Qaeda member when he was detained in March 2002, but the newly released file alleges that he worked closely with multiple senior al Qaeda operatives and possibly had foreknowledge of the terror group’s three most successful attacks between August 1998 and September 2001.

Jihadists who attacked Russian police appear in Islamic State video

| August 18, 2016

Amaq News Agency has released a video purportedly showing the two jihadists responsible for attacking Russian policemen in Balashikha yesterday. The video is consistent with the pattern followed after small-scale attacks in Germany and France in July. In each case, the assailants recorded themselves swearing allegiance to Abu Bakr al Baghdadi prior to their assaults.

The battle for Sirte, Libya continues

| August 18, 2016

The US has launched 62 “precision” airstrikes against the Islamic State in Sirte, Libya since Aug. 1, according to data provided by US Africa Command earlier today. The jihadists have lost significant ground, but continue to conduct suicide attacks using vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs) inside the city.

Hamza bin Laden calls for regime change in Saudi Arabia

| August 18, 2016

Hamza bin Laden, Osama’s son, criticizes Saudi Arabia’s intervention in Yemen in a newly released audio message. Hamza claims that the Saudi campaign has aided Houthi rebels by interfering in Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula’s war against them. He calls on Muslims to overthrow the Saudi government.

An alleged ‘agent’ of Iran transferred from Guantanamo to the UAE

| August 17, 2016

A leaked Joint Task Force – Guantanamo threat assessment describes Haji Hamidullah, who was recently transferred from Guantanamo to the UAE, as an “agent” of Iran. The Long War Journal first profiled Hamidullah in 2011. The leaked JTF-GTMO file contains numerous intelligence reports tying Iranian intelligence to the Afghan insurgency.

Jihadists argue over leadership of Islamic State’s West Africa province

| August 4, 2016

The Islamic State has named a new wali (governor) for its “province” in West Africa. The move prompted a reply from Abu Bakr Shekau, the longtime leader of Boko Haram who became the wali after announcing his allegiance to Abu Bakr al Baghdadi last year. The SITE Intelligence group translated the Islamic State’s announcement and Shekau’s response.

Analysis: Al Nusrah Front rebrands itself as Jabhat Fath Al Sham

| July 28, 2016

Abu Muhammad al Julani announced that Al Nusrah Front has been rebranded as Jabhat Fath Al Sham. Many have read into Julani’s statement as a formal disassociation with al Qaeda. But Julani didn’t actually say that, as his language was intentionally ambiguous. While sitting next to a longtime al Qaeda veteran from Egypt, Julani did not explicitly say that his group has broken from al Qaeda.

Terrorists in Normandy swore allegiance to Baghdadi before attacking church

| July 27, 2016

The Islamic State’s Amaq News Agency released a video purportedly showing the two terrorists responsible for yesterday’s assault on a church in Saint-Etienne-du-Rouvray, France. One of the two, identified as Abu Jalil al Hanafi, swears allegiance to Abu Bakr al Baghdadi on behalf of himself and his comrade. The Islamic State has also released a profile of Mohammad Daleel, the jihadist who blew himself up in Ansbach, Germany on July 24. The biography indicates that Daleel was a veteran of the jihad in Syria.

Attacks in France and Germany claimed by Islamic State propaganda arm

| July 26, 2016

The Islamic State’s Amaq News Agency has claimed responsibility for two attacks in Europe. One of them occurred on July 24 in Ansbach, Germany, when a terrorist blew himself up outside of a music festival. The other occurred at a church in Saint-Etienne-du-Rouvray, France this morning. Both “operations” were carried out “in response to calls to target nations in the coalition fighting the Islamic State,” Amaq said.

Presence of French special forces in Libya sets off controversy

| July 22, 2016

A helicopter carrying three French soldiers crashed near Benghazi, Libya on July 17, killing the Frenchmen and their Libyan counterparts on board. A new jihadist front called the Benghazi Defense Brigades quickly claimed credit, saying its fighters downed the helo with a shoulder-fired missile. French President Hollande said it was an “accident.” Either way, jihadists and Islamists are now rattling their sabres at France.

Treasury designates 3 senior al Qaeda members in Iran

| July 20, 2016

The US Treasury Department designated three al Qaeda terrorists today. All three of them are based inside Iran. One of them has served as al Qaeda’s “Military Commission Chief” and was identified in Osama bin Laden’s files as part of a “new generation” of leaders.

Teenager who terrorized German train appears in Islamic State video

| July 19, 2016

The Islamic State has claimed responsibility for yesterday’s attack on a train in the German city of Würzburg. Several people were wounded in the assault. Amaq News Agency, a propaganda arm of the so-called “caliphate”, released a video allegedly showing the attacker, a teenager identified as “Muhammad Riyad.” In the video, Riyad calls on all Muslims to swear allegiance to Abu Bakr al Baghdadi.

Islamic State claims its ‘soldier’ carried out Bastille Day attack in Nice, France

| July 16, 2016

The Islamic State’s propaganda arms have claimed responsibility for the July 14 attack in Nice, France, saying that a “soldier” of the so-called caliphate carried out a “unique operation.” The statements do not include any details about the terrorist that aren’t already widely known. Counterterrorism officials are still investigating the terrorist’s possible ties.

Ex-Gitmo detainee, Islamic State’s leader in Chechnya designated by State Department

| July 13, 2016

The State Department has added a former Guantanamo detainee, Ayrat Nasimovich Vakhitov, to the US government’s list of designated terrorists. According to press reports, Vakhitov was recently arrested in connection with the terrorist attack at Istanbul’s Ataturk airport. Also designated today is Aslan Avgazarovich Byutukaev, who leads the Islamic State’s forces in Chechnya.