Russia looks to encircle the eastern Ukrainian city of Kurakhove
Russian forces are currently focused on encircling the eastern city of Kurakhove. Their rate of advance has accelerated in recent weeks as Ukraine grapples with a manpower shortage.
Author Archives: John Hardie
Russia closes in on “fortress” city of Vuhledar
Russia is close to capturing the city of Vuhledar, a defensive stronghold in eastern Ukraine. Vuhledar’s fall will further stretch Kyiv’s forces and aid Russia’s efforts to push Ukraine out of southern Donetsk Oblast.
Russia retakes some territory in the Kursk region
Russian forces are on the attack in the Kursk region. While it is unclear exactly how much progress they have made, Russia appears to have retaken at least some territory.
Analysis: Russia moves forces to Kursk while intensifying push toward Pokrovsk
Though Ukraine’s Kursk offensive has achieved tactical success and boosted morale, it has so far failed to divert Russian forces attacking toward Pokrovsk. Instead, Russian gains there have accelerated as Moscow capitalizes on Ukraine’s manpower shortage.
Analysis: Ukraine’s bold—and risky—gamble in Kursk
Ukraine’s surprise offensive in the Kursk region is a daring gambit likely intended to divert Russian forces and shift the war’s momentum. But it also comes with major risks for Ukraine, which is short on reserves and struggling to hold its lines in Donetsk Oblast.
Analysis: What we know about Russia’s new 3-ton glide bomb
New footage confirms Russia has begun using three-ton bombs equipped with “UMPK” wing and guidance kits, adding to the serious threat that Russian glide bombs already pose to Ukraine. Here is what we know about the new weapon and its implications for the war.
Key Russian division gets new commander amid stalled offensive at Chasiv Yar
A June 22 message on a Telegram channel affiliated with the Russian 98th Guards Airborne Division seems to indicate Major General Yevgeny N. Tonkikh has been replaced as the division’s commander. The reason for the change is unclear, though it could be tied to stalled Russian progress in the city of Chasiv Yar, among other possible reasons.
Ukraine’s new Unmanned Systems Forces takes shape
Ukraine announced the commander of its nascent Unmanned Systems Forces (USF), Colonel Vadym Sukharevskyi. Sukharevskyi detailed various plans for the USF and how Ukraine plans to continue leveraging unmanned technology in its conflict with Russia.
Photos offer insights on Russia’s new UMPB D-30SN glide bomb
Recent photos shared on social media offer insights on a new Russian glide bomb that has seen growing use in Ukraine: the UMPB D-30SN.
As Ukrainian Forces Flow to Kharkiv, Russia Inches Forward at Chasiv Yar
As Russia’s Kharkiv offensive has forced Ukraine to divert forces badly needed elsewhere, the Russians are trying to capitalize on the eastern front.
Russia’s Kharkiv Offensive Stretches Ukrainian Forces
While Russia has little chance of taking Kharkiv, its offensive has already forced Ukraine to redeploy forces badly needed elsewhere.
U.S. Rushes Aid to Ukraine as Russia Presses Near Avdiivka, Chasiv Yar
Long-delayed U.S. aid is finally on its way to Ukraine as Russia presses forward near Avdiivka and Chasiv Yar. A look inside those battles.
Ukrainian Parliament Passes Mobilization Bill But Punts on Demobilization
Ukraine’s parliament finally passed a bill aimed at redressing its manpower shortage. But Kyiv’s lack of urgency has given Russia an opportunity to make gains.
Battle of Avdiivka: A Preliminary Analysis
The battle was generally favorable for Ukraine, as it destroyed a lot of Russian combat power. But Ukraine waited too long to withdraw and failed to prepare a solid second line of defense.
Ukraine’s Hold on Avdiivka Slipping
Russian forces have pushed into northern Avdiivka, which now seems likely to fall. But Russia stands little chance of making major gains unless the U.S. cuts aid.
Russian Munitions Production Higher But Still Insufficient
A Ukrainian intelligence official confirmed that Russia has increased production of key munitions. But supply remains short of demand.
Zelenskyy Orders Ukrainian Forces to Dig In
Extensive fortifications helped Russia thwart Ukraine’s counteroffensive. Ukraine may now take a page from Russia’s book heading into a tough 2024.
Key Precision-Strike System for Ukraine Delayed Until 2024
The much-anticipated GLSDB will not arrive in Ukraine until early 2024. It will offer Ukraine a cost-effective weapon against targets up to 150 km away.
Drone Fragment Offers Clue About Russia’s Shahed-136 Production Rate
As Moscow looks to ramp up production of Iranian Shahed-136 kamikaze drones, a recent strike left a clue about Russia’s production rate.
No Solid Evidence Russia Debuted ‘Italmas’ Drone
Despite speculation that Russia debuted its new Italmas drone in Ukraine, the mystery drone in question is likely more mundane.
Ukraine Shows HAWK Air Defense System in Action for First Time
While the HAWK may be old, Ukraine will take all the air defenses it can get as winter approaches.
Ukraine now has ATACMS — but will soon need more
ATACMS has already proven its value for Ukraine in strikes against a pair of Russian helicopter bases. But unless Kyiv receives more missiles, it will soon run out.
Ukraine Might Finally Get ATACMS. Here’s What That Means.
Washington may finally give Ukraine ATACMS missiles. Although not a silver bullet, ATACMS will be a boon for Ukraine. Here’s how.
Kyiv Strikes Bridges Supporting Russian Forces in Southern Ukraine
Ukraine’s latest bridge strikes will disrupt Russia’s supply lines but may not be enough to cripple Russian logistics.
Main Thrust of Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Has Begun
Ukraine seems to have launched the main thrust of its counteroffensive. The coming weeks will likely determine whether the operation succeeds.
More Evidence That Russia’s Making Iranian Drones
Further evidence has emerged indicating Russia has begun making Iranian kamikaze drones or at least prototypes thereof.
Crimean Bridge Damaged by Ukrainian Strike
Ukraine apparently struck the Crimean Bridge using unmanned surface vehicles. However, it will likely have a limited impact on Russian military logistics.
France Sends SCALP-EG Missiles to Ukraine
Kyiv’s new French-supplied missiles will help the Ukrainian military degrade Russian logistics and command and control.
Has Russia Begun Producing Iranian-Designed Suicide Drones?
New evidence suggests Moscow is getting closer to producing Iranian-designed suicide drones in Russia.
Russia’s National Guard to Get Tanks Following Wagner Mutiny
The head of Russia’s National Guard said his troops will receive tanks and other heavy equipment following Wagner’s mutiny.