Author Archives: Janatan Sayeh

Janatan Sayeh is a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies focused on Iranian domestic affairs and the Islamic Republic’s regional malign influence.
Khameni and Assad meeting

Analysis: Iran never gave up on Assad; it simply failed to protect him

| December 13, 2024

The sudden collapse of the Islamic Republic’s closest state-actor ally stunned the world as Syrian rebels captured Damascus in just 11 days after launching a new wave of insurgency. To deflect this humiliating defeat, Iranian officials have claimed that the Tehran-Damascus alliance had been weakening and that Iran no longer aimed to preserve the Assad dynasty. However, leaks from Tehran and insights into Iranian regional strategy tell a different story: Iran was incapable of safeguarding the Syrian regime, and its collapse has sparked internal divisions among Iranian officials.

Assad sign Syria

Analysis: Tehran on the back foot: Proxy struggles and Assad’s dilemma

| December 2, 2024

Just a year ago, the Islamic Republic was on the offensive as it used its proxies to launch coordinated attacks on Israel from six fronts to demonstrate the extent of its regional influence. Now, the momentum has shifted. Israeli operations have severely weakened Hamas and Hezbollah, Syrian rebels backed by Turkey wage a relentless war against Assad, and the United States targets Iranian-backed militia bases across Syria.

Hezbollah supporters celebrating

Analysis: Iran hails ceasefire as an opportunity to rebuild Hezbollah

| November 27, 2024

With Israel and Hamas having reached a ceasefire agreement, the rhetoric coming from Tehran is far from de-escalatory. Military and civilian officials within the Islamic Republic continue to underscore their commitment to rebuilding Hezbollah’s capabilities and have reiterated threats of launching a third phase of the “True Promise” operation against Israel.

IRGC and MOI logos

Analysis: Spy surge: Tehran’s espionage strategy against Israel

| October 31, 2024

The Islamic Republic has accelerated its intelligence operations in Israel, with at least five spy rings uncovered in October alone. Between October 14 and 31, Israeli authorities arrested some 20 individuals who were operating on behalf of Iran. Led by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence (MOI), Tehran’s multifaceted espionage strategy in Israel employs cyber warfare and direct human intelligence engagement.

Analysis: Leaks and spy rings merely delay the inevitable Israeli operation

| October 21, 2024

Despite allegedly leaked documents from US agencies and Tehran’s ongoing intelligence operations aimed at disrupting an Israeli attack, Iran is bracing itself for an operation targeting its nuclear facilities. The situation has only intensified after Hezbollah’s botched attempt to assassinate Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Iranian military flags

Analysis: The ‘How’ over the ‘What:’ Israel’s dilemma beyond target selection in Iran

| October 18, 2024

Israel’s war cabinet has reportedly agreed on what Iranian targets to strike, so the question now is what method it will employ to carry out the attacks to effectively deter Tehran without escalating into a full-scale war. In doing so, Israel has two choices: to either publicly humiliate the regime or launch a series of covert attacks, and the latter is less likely to warrant Tehran’s retaliation.

Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Fallahzadeh

Analysis: ‘Axis of Resistance’ or ‘Axis of Espionage?’ Iran’s struggles to staff leadership

| October 15, 2024

The appointment of Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Fallahzadeh as Hezbollah’s “supervisor” underscores the growing challenges faced by Iran and its proxies amid Israel’s military and intelligence operations. The inability to establish stable leadership within Hezbollah not only reflects Israel’s tactical successes but also reveals deep fractures within the Axis of Resistance. The heightened paranoia among Iranian leaders suggests a precarious future for the Islamic Republic’s efforts to maintain control over its oldest proxy.

Iran targets in Israel graphic

Analysis: Iran threatens Israeli civil and nuclear infrastructure on October 7 anniversary

| October 7, 2024

On the anniversary of the October 7 terrorist attack, the Islamic Republic has pledged to target Israeli cities and critical infrastructure while US and Israeli officials consider their options in response to Tehran’s second ballistic missile assault. With Israel’s air defense capabilities demonstrating superiority over Iranian missiles and the military setbacks suffered by the regime’s proxies, Tehran has increasingly diminished its leverage over Jerusalem. This shifting dynamic offers Israel a strategic opportunity to target the regime’s nuclear facilities, addressing the primary existential threat it faces.

Hezbollah flag

Analysis: Tehran’s damage control tactics amidst Hezbollah’s setbacks

| September 25, 2024

The Iranian regime’s current strategy seems focused on damage control, as it believes maintaining a foundation allows it to eventually regain influence in southern Lebanon. The Islamic Republic aims to create an image of total warfare through a series of calculated proxy attacks. This approach not only projects strength to its supporters but also bets on the possibility that the United States will pressure Israel to stop its strikes against Iranian militias.

Iran intelligence logos

Analysis: Mass arrests and conflicting narratives following the Haniyeh assassination

| August 5, 2024

Iran’s regime arrested dozens of intelligence officers who may have been responsible for the security breach that led to Haniyeh’s assassination. The IRGC’s sole control over the investigation into the incident and the regime’s contradictory reporting further demonstrate various parties are intentionally crafting differing narratives to deflect blame and avoid being seen as incompetent.

Islamic State flag waving on the wind

Islamic State operatives arrested after illegally crossing the US border

| June 12, 2024

Eight Tajik nationals with ties to the Islamic State in Khorasan Province (ISKP) were recently arrested in major US cities after illegally crossing the Mexican border as early as 2023. The arrests underscore the resurgence of the ISKP after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and may indicate terrorist groups are seeking to exploit America’s border crisis to stage attacks.

Islamic State flag waving on the wind

ISKP’s transnational reemergence

| June 10, 2024

Leveraging its stronghold in Afghanistan and networks across Central and South Asia, ISKP is surging as a formidable transnational actor, posing a threat from Asia to Europe. The Taliban’s self-portrayal as a counterforce to ISKP raises concerns about their true motives and the perpetuation of regional instability.

Opium protests catalyze anti-Taliban sentiments

| May 20, 2024

Afghanistan has grappled with a surge in terrorism, deepening ethnic rifts, protests, and the devastating impact of natural calamities in recent weeks. Two years into their control of Afghanistan, the Taliban is struggling to govern as a state actor.

Iran’s grasp is loosening on its eastern borders

| April 4, 2024

Recent attacks by Jaish al-Adl and ISKP showcase Iran’s loosening grasp over its eastern borders. This trend also underscores the growing grievances of Iran’s ethnic minorities, exasperated by systemic neglect, mismanagement, and kleptocracy. 

Iranian reactions to the Islamic State’s suicide bombings in Kerman

| January 30, 2024

While ISKP claimed responsibility for the Kerman twin suicide bombings, Iranian state media and officials are downplaying the Afghanistan connection and are instead pointing fingers at Israel. Despite internal crackdowns and heightened security measures, Iran treads carefully to avoid straining relations with the Taliban amid escalating tensions in the region.