In his first speech after Assad’s downfall, Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem completely reversed the organization’s position on the Syrian dictator’s removal. Qassem extended an olive branch to groups that, the week prior, he described as takfiri agents of Israel. He also insisted Hezbollah’s position in Lebanon would remain unchanged.
Israel’s Bashan Arrow operation in Syria continues. The Israelis have strengthened their presence in the Golan Heights DMZ and targeted more critical assets belonging to the former Assad regime.
After the collapse of the Assad regime, Israel embarked on a widescale operation in Syria to neutralize potential emerging threats. Dubbed “Operation Bashan Arrow,” the massive undertaking resulted in Israel decimating 70–80% of the former regime’s military and the destruction of its chemical weapons facilities and caches.
Lebanon and the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) cannot be counted upon to restrain Hezbollah. Beirut continues to demonstrate a lack of will to act against the group—and the more time that passes, the more difficult Hezbollah will become to rein in or disarm.
Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem gave two speeches after the November 27 ceasefire that discussed Hezbollah’s next steps. In his first, he didn’t mention Hezbollah’s withdrawal from south of the Litani River. However, he made an about-face in his second speech, perhaps under Israeli military pressure and due to the situation in Syria. Qassem also discussed cooperating with the Lebanese government to reconstruct areas damaged during the war.
Naim Qassem delivered his second speech as Hezbollah’s secretary-general on the 40th day since Hassan Nasrallah’s passing. Qassem repeated many of the themes and claims from his previous speeches and stressed that Hezbollah will continue fighting.
On October 30, Naim Qassem delivered his first speech as Hezbollah’s new secretary-general. Qassem stressed his intention to continue in Nasrallah’s footsteps and that Hezbollah would continue its war with Israel until a ceasefire was reached on the group’s terms.
Naim Qassem became Hezbollah’s new secretary-general on October 29. His last speech as the group’s deputy secretary-general, given two weeks earlier, indicates that Nasrallah’s successor intends to continue in his predecessor’s confrontational path.
A specious argument fueled by DC-based Lebanese activists is gaining traction. It alleges that UN Security Council Resolution 1559 (2004) takes a stronger stance against Hezbollah than its successor, Resolution 1701, adopted after the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah War. This entire argument, however, rests on misinterpretations of Resolution 1701’s meaning and intent and demonstrates ignorance of international law.
With Israel’s September 27 assassination of Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s voice has been subdued. But it has not, unfortunately, been entirely silenced. The mantle of Hezbollah’s spokesman is a heavy one to take up, made all the more difficult by Israel’s continued elimination of the group’s top leadership cadre. For now, however, Hezbollah seems to have settled on Nasrallah’s deputy, the soft-spoken philosopher-idealogue Naim Qassem. An intellectual, Qassem lacks any of the charisma or presence around which Nasrallah’s hold over Hezbollah’s flock and cult of personality were built – and therefore his ability to inspire and rouse the base remains in question. But for lack of any other options, he now appears to be Hezbollah’s placeholder voice.
Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah’s speech on Thursday afternoon was a difficult exercise in damage control after Israel’s attacks on September 17 and 18.
Hezbollah’s promised retaliation after Israel killed Fuad Shukr on July 31 finally came this Sunday. But the great vengeance promised by Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah turned out to be a flop. Nasrallah’s subsequent speech after Hezbollah’s attack was a transparent exercise in damage control.
A speech by Hassan Nasrallah, the secretary general of Hezbollah, suggests Hezbollah intends to conduct painful retaliation for Fuad Shukur’s assassination but that the organization is still not interested in escalating to a full-scale conflict with Israel. When it comes, the retaliatory strike will likely aim to remain below the threshold that leads to the outbreak of war.
Israel killed a senior IRGC officer in Syria. Iran, and possibly Hezbollah will avenge him – but without undermining their broader objective of rescuing Hamas and its partners in Gaza.
“Hezbollah has spent nearly two decades amassing a massive arsenal of short-range projectiles. Israel’s defensive systems are insufficient to contend with this threat, and the mobility of this portion of Hezbollah’s arsenal will likewise render Israeli standoff firepower ineffective against it — leaving Israel with no option but to launch an overwhelming, massive, and immediate ground invasion”
In the final part of its narrative strategy, Hezbollah sets demands for the international community, but which are designed to advance Hezbollah’s goal of gradually and slowly achieving Israel’s destruction.
Hezbollah did not claim today’s rocket barrage on Safed, which struck an IDF base and killed a soldier. But the dynamics surrounding the attack suggest it may have been a retaliation for Israeli strikes on high-value Hezbollah targets beginning with an Israeli attack last week in Nabatiyeh targeting two high-ranking Hezbollah commanders.
Part II: Propaganda is a critical element of Hezbollah’s warfighting toolkit. The current Gaza-Israel War, of which Hezbollah considers itself a part, is no different, and the group has therefore crafted a narrative around that conflict to appeal to Western audiences to side against the Israelis.
Israel targeted two high-ranking Hezbollah commanders in an airstrike in Nabatieh. While the details and outcome remain uncertain, the location of the strike and nature of the targets suggest Israel’s patience is wearing thing with Hezbollah’s ongoing attacks.
Propaganda is a critical element of Hezbollah’s warfighting toolkit. The current Gaza-Israel War, of which Hezbollah considers itself a part, is no different, and the group has therefore crafted a narrative around that conflict to appeal to Western audiences to side against the Israelis.
Israel revealed the existence of Hezbollah’s airstrip back in September. Information available at the time indicated Hezbollah would use it to launch drones to attack Israel. When the group did so last Wednesday, Israel bombed the airstrip.
Nasrallah to break his silence on Israel-Gaza war. Will he open a second front?
Hashem Saffiedine is the head of Hezbollah’s powerful Executive Council, making him the second-most important man in the organization behind its leader, Hassan Nasrallah. He is also Nasrallah’s heir apparent as Hezbollah’s Secretary General. According to the State Department designation, Saffiedine poses a serious risk of committing terrorist acts against the United States and threatening its national security.
Hezbollah has repositioned its men for the ongoing battles in Syria.
Israel forcefully redraws its blurred red lines on Hezbollah weapons transfers via Syria.
Hezbollah may have begun receiving weapons shipments at Palmyra’s T-4 airport in an attempt to avoid Israeli detection.
Hezbollah intends to wage its next war against Israel from deep within Syria, according to a report on a pro-Hezbollah news site last week.
A report says the IRGC has built weapons factories for Hezbollah in Lebanon, possibly giving the Shiite organization the ability to build and produce projectiles or missiles capable of reaching any location in Israel.
On Monday, the State Department listed Ali Da’amoush and Mustafa Mughniyeh, both part of Hezbollah’s senior leadership, as specially designated global terrorists.
Along with Iran, Hezbollah helped the PMF “with training and planning, and with weapons and equipment” to the Popular Mobilization Forces with the knowledge of Iraq’s prime minister, according to Abu Mahdi al Muhandis.