Days after it withdrew from most of Russia’s Kursk region, Ukraine launched a cross-border incursion into neighboring Belgorod Oblast. The operation appears to be much more limited in scale and objectives than Kyiv’s August 2024 Kursk offensive.
The Ukrainian attack
The operation commenced on the morning of March 18. Ukrainian forces conducted multiple waves of attacks toward the villages of Demidovka, Priles’e, and possibly Grafovka, located near the juncture between Ukraine’s Sumy region and Russia’s Belgorod and Kursk regions. The Ukrainian forces committed on the first day appear to have been modest in size, likely totaling less than a battalion’s worth of armored vehicles, along with support elements.
The Ukrainians appear to have advanced in small columns variously composed of infantry fighting vehicles, tanks, and ATVs. Wisent-1 MC, IMR-2, and UR-77 obstacle-clearing vehicles carved a path through dragon’s teeth obstacles and minefields near the border. Ukraine claimed to have conducted an airstrike on a Russian command post of a 3rd Motor Rifle Division unit near Demidovka the day the incursion began. The attacking forces were likely also supported by artillery and first-person-view (FPV) strike drone units.
The Ukrainians appear to have continued attacking in the same areas in the days since the incursion began. Demidovka seems to be the main effort. Russian reports and video footage suggest these attacks have employed a mix of armored vehicles and small groups of infantry moving on foot or ATVs.
Ukrainian unit composition
Unlike Kyiv’s cross-border raids in 2023 and early 2024, which were conducted by pro-Ukraine Russian nationals subordinate to Ukrainian military intelligence, the Belgorod operation involves regular units. The Ukrainian vehicles participating in the Belgorod operation bear the same tactical symbol (a white triangle) that Ukraine used in Russia’s Kursk Oblast.
These vehicles include Bradley and Marder infantry fighting vehicles, suggesting Ukraine has committed some of its better forces to the operation. These appear to include elements of the 33rd Separate Assault Regiment, which fought in Kursk and operates Bradleys and Marders. In addition, Ukraine has deployed part of its 414th Separate Strike Unmanned Aerial Systems Brigade, one of its best drone units.
Ukrainian objectives
Whether the Belgorod incursion is intended as a brief raid or a longer-term operation is unclear. Ollie Carroll of The Economist reported that Kyiv had been planning the operation for three weeks and aims to establish a “buffer zone,” suggesting an intention for a sustained presence. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy similarly characterized the operation as a defensive measure to preempt a potential Russian offensive in Sumy Oblast. LWJ has observed no evidence that a Russian offensive across the Belgorod-Sumy border was imminent.
Seizing the high ground near the Belgorod border could help protect against a Russian offensive in the Mryopillya-Uhroidy area in Sumy Oblast and push Russian artillery and FPV drone crews back from the Hlybne-Myropillya road. It would also help guard the right flank of the Ukrainian forces still in Kursk Oblast, where Ukraine is holding a handful of border villages despite having largely withdrawn from the region.
At the same time, Kyiv may hope to alleviate pressure on Ukrainian defenders in Kursk and the Yunakivka area in Sumy Oblast by diverting Russian units to the Belgorod region.
Little apparent progress so far
Unlike in Ukraine’s August 2024 Kursk offensive, when Ukrainian units quickly tore through thin Russian lines, Russia seems to have been better prepared for this operation. The attacking Ukrainian forces are also smaller. In addition, anti-tank obstacles and minefields emplaced along the border appear to have done their job in slowing down and channeling the attacking forces.
Moreover, given the proximity to Kursk Oblast, Russia may have been able to quickly transfer some units from Kursk to Belgorod. Many of the Russian units currently defending in Belgorod were previously known to be fighting in Kursk, though it is possible elements of some of those units were already deployed in Belgorod.
So far, available evidence suggests Ukrainian forces have made only modest progress, perhaps taking some tree lines on the outskirts of Demidovka and Priles’e. Time will tell whether Ukraine will gain further ground or commit additional resources to sustain the operation. Doing so may present risks, given that Ukraine faces a manpower shortage and Washington is unlikely to provide significant additional aid to replace lost equipment and expended munitions.
