On Monday, the Trump administration announced it was “pausing and reviewing” military aid for Ukraine following the contentious Oval Office meeting between Presidents Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy last week.
The suspension’s impact will depend on its scope and duration. Although a permanent cutoff of all aid likely would not cause a Ukrainian collapse, it would result in more Ukrainian lives and land lost and more infrastructure destroyed. Challenges would build over time and could exacerbate Kyiv’s shortage of manpower.
Aid spigot shut off
Trump’s decision affects equipment and ammunition currently in the delivery pipeline or on order for Ukraine, including all materiel in transit or awaiting delivery in Poland. While Trump has not pledged any new security assistance for Kyiv since his term began, the administration has—until now—continued delivering aid pledged by its predecessor, which surged aid during its final months in office.
On Wednesday, CIA Director John Ratcliff appeared to confirm that the pause also affects US intelligence sharing with Ukraine. American intelligence has supported Ukraine in a host of areas, from countering Russian missile barrages and covert operations to tracking Russian force movements to conducting deep strikes against high-value Russian targets.
As of this writing, media reports differed on whether all intelligence sharing was suspended. It appears the administration is at least withholding targeting data for long-range strikes. Some reports say the United States also stopped providing some intelligence that helps provide advanced warning of Russian missile and drone strikes.
The aid suspension presumably also affects other assistance as well, such as training and planning support and help with equipment maintenance and repair.
US administration says aid will resume, but unclear when
US officials say aid will resume once Trump determines Kyiv is serious about peace talks, but how long that might take is unclear. One senior administration official reportedly said the White House’s initial plan was to pause assistance for a week or two to pressure Zelenskyy.
The Ukrainian leader reaffirmed his “commitment to peace” in a lengthy social media post on Tuesday, which Trump welcomed. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz said on Wednesday that US and Ukrainian officials are discussing specifics for talks with Russia, adding that Trump may reconsider the aid freeze if that progress continues.
If the pause is short-lived, it will not have much direct impact on the battlefield, with the important exception of intelligence sharing. The effect will mount if the suspension lasts months or longer, exhausting Kyiv’s stocks of already-delivered American aid.
Air defense
In terms of materiel, the most challenging and immediate gap is in munitions for air and missile defense, especially for the US-made Patriot system. Ukraine’s handful of Patriot batteries, deployed in and around key cities, serve as its main defense against Russian and North Korean ballistic missiles.
Kyiv lacks enough Patriot missiles as it is. According to a Ukrainian official, the country would run out within weeks without US resupply. Russia could then destroy more of Ukraine’s critical infrastructure and other high-value targets.
Equipment maintenance and repair
Absent US spare parts and maintenance and repair support, Ukraine would face growing difficulty servicing many types of equipment, which is already a challenge. Keeping high-end systems such as Patriots and F-16s in service would become harder.
Without a steady supply of spare parts from the United States, Ukraine may increasingly have to cannibalize some of the thousands of armored vehicles Washington has provided. Some of those vehicles, including Bradley infantry fighting vehicles and Stryker armored personnel carriers, are not operated in significant numbers in other NATO countries. The size of Ukraine’s existing stock of spare parts is unclear.
Starlink
Prior to last week’s Oval Office meeting, Reuters reported that US officials had “raised the possibility of cutting the country’s access to Elon Musk’s vital Starlink satellite internet system.” Musk, who has grown increasingly critical of Ukraine, quickly denied the report. So far, there has been no indication that Starlink will be cut off.
The loss of Starlink would be a major blow. Since early in the war, Ukrainian warfighters have relied on many thousands of Starlink terminals to share real-time drone feeds and communicate with fellow troops and loved ones. Civilian facilities, such as hospitals, also use them. Ukraine could fall back on alternative solutions, as it has done in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, where Starlink often does not work. But these alternatives would be suboptimal, and the switch would be disruptive.
While Starlink’s services in Ukraine are partly financed by US government contracts, Poland bought and pays the subscription fees for over half of Ukraine’s Starlink terminals. Breaking that contract could undermine SpaceX’s global business—something Musk is likely keen to avoid.
Long-range precision strike capability
Europe cannot quickly replace US supplies of the Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) rockets fired by Ukraine’s High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) and other Western-provided rocket artillery systems. Ukraine’s capacity for responsive precision strikes at ranges of up to 80 kilometers deep would thus diminish over time as its GMLRS stocks are depleted.
For longer-range strikes, Ukraine would have to rely on limited stocks of European air-launched cruise missiles, along with its increasing indigenous production of cruise missiles and long-range one-way attack drones, once its remaining US-provided ATACMS ballistic missiles are expended. Whether Trump would have provided additional ATACMS anyhow is doubtful.
Shell hunger
Ukraine is not as dependent on American artillery ammunition as it was earlier in the war. A big reason why is that Ukrainian-made drones, rather than artillery, currently account for the majority of Russian losses of men and equipment. Ukraine has been expanding its best drone units to serve as a force multiplier in support of its understrength infantry units.
That said, artillery and other traditional capabilities remain vital, and strike drones are most effective when employed in concert with those capabilities. Europe, along with already delivered US munitions, can cover much of Ukraine’s artillery shell requirements in 2025. The European Union aims to produce 2 million artillery shells this year, and Ukraine has also increased its own production of mortar and artillery ammunition.
Still, without American supplies, Ukrainian units would have to make do with a lower rate of fire and would not benefit from the recent and projected growth in US production. Ukrainian artillerymen would also lose access to their primary source of dual-purpose improved conventional munition (DPICM) cluster warheads, useful for countering Russian assaults. Whereas Russia currently has only a narrow advantage in artillery fire, that disparity would likely widen.
Ukrainian officials say their stocks of American shells might last for a few months, perhaps until the summer. Rationing will likely begin now to hedge against the possibility of a long-term cutoff.
Manpower, morale, and negotiations
A permanent end to US aid could exacerbate Ukraine’s shortage of infantry—currently the main problem facing Kyiv’s forces. Something similar happened from fall 2023 to spring 2024, when dwindling stocks of artillery ammunition and stalled aid legislation in the US Congress forced Ukraine to ration shells, leading casualty rates to spike.
Ukraine is in a somewhat better position now, given its greater production of first-person-view (FPV) strike drones and the fact that the Biden administration frontloaded ammunition deliveries for this year. Still, Ukraine’s casualty rate may rise over time as its ammunition stocks and armored vehicle fleet are depleted.
Higher casualties, coupled with the psychological blow of American abandonment, could undermine morale. The Ukrainians have proven resilient, and most troops will probably continue to fight. However, lower morale could fuel draft dodging and exacerbate Ukraine’s growing challenge, with troops going AWOL or deserting due to exhaustion or insufficient training.
In sum, a permanent US aid cutoff would boost Moscow’s efforts to grind down Ukrainian forces. Russia would gain greater leverage at the negotiating table, likely making President Vladimir Putin even less open to compromise and more inclined to continue pressing his battlefield advantage. The worst-case scenario, in which mounting pressure eventually enables Russia to break Ukraine’s back, is improbable. More likely, Russia’s rate of advance would improve to some degree, though the Kremlin itself faces growing challenges in sustaining the war beyond 2025.
Pause or prelude?
Even if Trump resumes aid, this may not be the last time it gets frozen. If his diplomatic efforts fail, Trump could decide simply to wash his hands of Ukraine and cut assistance for good. Moscow will certainly seek to place the blame on Kyiv if talks break down. Ukraine and its European backers would do well to prepare for this possibility.
