Four years after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, the threat posed by the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) has expanded beyond the region, now endangering both American and European soil. With ISKP actively recruiting and transferring fighters across borders, regional actors such as the Taliban, Iran, Tajikistan, and Pakistan have proven unable to curb the jihadist group’s growth.
A UN report highlights ISKP’s expansion
The United Nations (UN) Security Council’s Committee Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team highlighted ISKP’s rapid expansion in a report released on February 6. Despite efforts by Afghanistan’s de facto authorities and regional states, the Monitoring Team assessed ISKP to pose “the greatest extraregional terrorist threat.”
Vladimir Voronkov, under-secretary-general of the United Nations Office of Counter-Terrorism, echoed these concerns on February 10. Providing an overview of global terrorism over the past six months, he stated that ISKP in Afghanistan continues “to pose a significant threat,” given that the group’s supporters have orchestrated attacks across Europe and were intensifying efforts to recruit individuals from Central Asia and the Caucasus.
The threat to the United States
As ISKP’s reach expands to the US, President Donald Trump’s administration has turned its attention to countering the group’s growing influence and capabilities. On February 10, Dorothy Shea, US ambassador to the UN mission, warned, “ISIS affiliates in Central Asia, most notably ISIS-Khorasan, also pose a significant global threat. We remain concerned about ISIS-K’s (ISKP) capabilities to plot and conduct attacks.”
The risk isn’t just speculation—it’s already in motion. The US Department of Justice announced charges in October 2024 against an Afghan national with Islamic State ties who was “conspiring to conduct an Election Day terrorist attack in the United States.” Previously, eight Tajik nationals with ties to ISKP were arrested in New York, Los Angeles, and Philadelphia in June 2024.
Trump has also criticized the previous administration’s decision to abandon US military equipment in Afghanistan, a move that allowed the Taliban to seize the assets and parade them as a taunt to the United States. A 2022 Department of Defense study reported that these assets included 78 aircraft, 40,000 military vehicles, and over 300,000 weapons, collectively valued at approximately $7 billion.
Given the Taliban’s inability to maintain total military cohesion, a significant portion of these US-made weapons have ended up in the hands of other Islamist groups. For example, a recently circulated video shows US military equipment now in the possession of Jaish al Adl, a US-designated terrorist group. ISKP’s deep infiltration of the Taliban’s security apparatus strongly indicates that the group has access to these assets as well.
The threat to Europe
The UN report highlighted ISKP as the foremost external terrorist danger to Europe. The increasing frequency of foiled plots underscores the group’s determination and capacity to conduct high-casualty attacks primarily targeting large crowds and soft targets.
ISKP’s capabilities are amplified by a sophisticated online propaganda network and a logistical infrastructure that operates remotely utilizing the Russian language—common among recruits from Central Asia and the North Caucasus. Many of the group’s members holding legal residency have facilitated the relocation of ISKP operatives into Europe’s Schengen Area, where 29 countries lack border controls, and provided financial and logistical support for attacks. A joint operation in Austria, Belgium, and Germany in July 2024 evidenced this trend, leading to the arrest of 19 Chechen and Tajik ISKP members involved in financing and orchestrating terror operations.
The February 13 terrorist attack in Munich, Germany, which injured 36 people and killed two, further highlighted the ISKP’s influence network in Europe. German authorities reported that the attacker was an Afghan asylum seeker with an “Islamist orientation.”
Germany has evolved into a critical hub for ISKP activity in recent years, with a marked escalation in 2024. Last April, the German federal prosecutor’s office charged seven foreign nationals from Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Kyrgyzstan with plotting terrorist attacks on behalf of ISKP.
ISKP’s threats transcend the borders of mainland Europe. A 36-year-old woman from the United Kingdom was found guilty of terrorism offenses on February 13 after planning to travel to Afghanistan to join ISKP. Warwickshire Police revealed that she had saved money for a one-way flight and shared graphic extremist material on social media between September 2022 and January 2024.
Iran’s failure to contain ISKP
While Iran has fought the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, it has failed to quell the ISKP presence in Afghanistan. Consequently, Tehran finds itself reliant on the Taliban to resolve or mitigate this threat, which has proven incapable of doing so. The Islamic Republic’s highest authority, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, ordered “maximum engagement with Afghanistan” on February 9. This edict followed a January meeting between Taliban Defense Minister Yaqub Mujahid and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, during which both sides discussed intelligence-sharing.
Despite these efforts, Iran remains a transit hub for ISKP recruits. The UN report noted that key smuggling routes for ISKP operatives pass through the Iranian cities of Orumiyeh, Mashhad, and Zahedan before entering Afghanistan’s Herat and Nimroz provinces.
The Islamic Republic has also fallen short in tracking ISKP operatives responsible for the January 2024 twin bombings in the southeastern Iranian city of Kerman. While Pakistan recently arrested some of the individuals who funded and orchestrated the attack, the main mastermind, Tariq Tajiki, remains at large in Afghanistan.
This development is particularly humiliating for the regime in Tehran, given the background of one of its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders. The IRGC’s Quds Force, responsible for carrying out the Islamic Republic’s external operations, is led by Esmail Ghaani—whose entire career has been centered on Afghanistan. With ISKP’s rise along Iran’s eastern border and the fall of the Bashar al Assad regime in Syria on its western flank, the Quds Force has increasingly proven itself incapable of countering Sunni Islamists in the region.
Tajikistan’s role
The UN report underscored the deep entrenchment of Tajik nationals within ISKP’s ranks, noting that “Central Asians, predominantly Tajik nationals, were recruited” as part of the network facilitating the illicit movement of fighters across Afghanistan’s borders. The most glaring example of this came in March 2024, when ISKP Tajik nationals carried out a deadly attack in Moscow.
Dushanbe has been confronting this challenge within its own borders, as well. In a major counterterrorism operation, a Tajik court sentenced more than 30 ISKP agents on February 14 to prison terms ranging from eight to 20 years for attempting to carry out a mass terrorist attack.
ISKP exploits the Taliban’s weakness
The Taliban’s inability to prevent infiltration and corruption within its ranks has further enabled ISKP’s expansion. A striking example is the recent defection of Mawlawi Nik Mohammad Aizaifa, head of the Taliban General Directorate of Intelligence in Bamyan Province, to ISKP.
Facing mounting losses, the Taliban has resorted to enlisting other militant groups to combat this emerging threat. As ISKP expanded into northern Afghanistan, the Taliban mobilized fighters from the Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), and Jamaat Ansarullah to counter them.
