Russia and Ukraine both launched sizable attacks in different parts of Kursk Oblast in recent days, battling over territory that Kyiv hopes to use as leverage in potential peace talks. In eastern Ukraine, meanwhile, Russia appears to have captured the city of Kurakhove, but it failed to encircle Ukrainian forces there.
Dueling attacks in Kursk
Ukraine launched attacks to the northeast of its salient in Kursk Oblast on the morning of January 5. The Russian Defense Ministry initially reported a Ukrainian “counterattack” comprising two tanks, 12 other armored vehicles, and obstacle-clearing equipment advancing toward the village of Berdin. Additional waves in that same area reportedly followed on January 5-6. Russia’s “North” Grouping of Forces, whose area of responsibility includes Kursk, said companies from Ukraine’s 80th and 82nd air assault brigades and 225th Assault Battalion conducted the attacks. The total size and composition of the attacking forces remain unconfirmed.
Footage from Russian drones, posted on social media, showed columns of Ukrainian mine-clearing equipment, tanks, and other armored vehicles attacking toward Berdin and nearby Novosotnitskii. Russian first-person-view (FPV) drones—including wire-guided models that have become increasingly popular among Russian (and, more recently, Ukrainian) units—struck a number of these vehicles during their approach. Satellite imagery taken on January 5 also shows fresh scorch marks from artillery fire on the approaches to Berdin. Reports of Ukrainian attacks elsewhere in Kursk Oblast remain unconfirmed.
Whereas Ukraine’s initial Kursk offensive in August exploited a weak Russian defense, Russia appears to have been better prepared this time around. The defending forces included units from the 26th Tank Regiment, 204th “Akhmat” Spetsnaz Regiment, 2nd Spetsnaz Brigade, Rosgvardia (National Guard), 11th Air Assault Brigade, and 30th Motor Rifle Regiment.
Ukrainian forces managed to enter Berdin and Novosotnitskii, in addition to taking some positions near those villages. However, Russia seems to have quickly regained at least some ground. Video footage posted on social media on January 6-7 showed Russian troops walking by destroyed Ukrainian vehicles and soldiers in Novosotnitskii. Russian sources claim both villages were cleared as of January 7.
Ukraine may have hoped to divert Russian forces attacking elsewhere in Kursk Oblast, where Russia has retaken roughly half the Ukrainian-captured territory. Ukraine attempted a similar gambit back in September, which did not amount to much. Such attacks are not without risk, given that the Ukrainian military is already short on combat-ready troops and equipment. Although further Ukrainian attacks are possible, Kyiv probably lacks enough forces for a significant advance against a prepared Russian defense.
Meanwhile, Russia reportedly launched another wave of attacks on the salient’s left flank. A serviceman from Ukraine’s 36th Marine Brigade reported that these were Russia’s “largest” attacks since the Kursk operation began. They comprised around 40 armored vehicles from the 155th and 810th naval infantry brigades and the 106th Airborne Division, he said. DeepState, a well-respected Ukrainian analytical group, reported that Russian forces attacked the villages of Malaya Loknya, Sverdlikovo, and Leonidovo.
Video footage posted on social media showed Russian armored fighting vehicles hitting mines, getting struck by FPV drones, and dropping infantry west of Malaya Loknya. Russian forces appear to have gained at least a little ground. In addition, Serhii Sternenko, a volunteer who supplies drones to Ukrainian units, posted a photo reportedly showing a Russian column attacking near the Russia-Ukraine border.
Russian sources have also reported attacks at Russkoe Porechnoe and Makhnovka in recent days. These villages are located in the northeastern and southeastern parts of the salient, respectively. Video footage indicates Russian troops have indeed begun pushing into Makhnovka, though their progress is unclear. Taking the village would put Russian forces within 2 kilometers of Sudzha, a border city that serves as Ukraine’s logistics hub in Kursk Oblast.
Russia captures Kurakhove
Russian forces continue to make incremental gains in various parts of eastern Ukraine. Notably, on January 6, Moscow claimed its forces completed the capture of Kurakhove, a small city in the southern part of Donetsk Oblast.
This announcement came shortly after footage emerged on social media indicating Russia had taken most or all of Kurakhove’s industrial zone, located in the western part of the city. While a Ukrainian military spokesman claimed on January 7 that Ukrainian forces retain some positions in the industrial zone, it is clear that Kurakhove has effectively fallen.
Like the previously captured cities of Avdiivka and Vuhledar, Kurakhove anchored Ukraine’s defensive line on this part of the front. The city can now serve as a useful staging area for Russian forces, while its taller structures can boost the range of Russian FPV drones. That said, Moscow may elect to shift some of its forces from Kurakhove to Pokrovsk, the other city in Donetsk Oblast where Russia has been concentrating its attacks.
For Moscow, Kurakhove’s capture is only a qualified victory. Russia was attempting to take the city in a double envelopment and sever the N15 road, which supplied Ukrainian forces in the city. But Russia failed to close the pocket. Instead, Russian troops had to take Kurakhove block by block, which tends to be more costly. Had Russia fully encircled Kurakhove, it could have destroyed Ukrainian units trapped inside. This would have exacerbated Ukraine’s shortage of forces and undermined Ukrainian morale, potentially leading to more rapid Russian advances.
This failure followed a similar episode with a smaller pocket south of Kurakhove. For weeks, Russian forces sought to envelop the village of Uspenivka and nearby settlements. Ukraine held on to those villages for too long as Russian forces inched forward—a penchant displayed by Ukrainian commanders throughout the war. But although Russia eventually closed the pocket, many of the Ukrainian defenders managed to escape, according to usually reliable Ukrainian sources.
The rivers northwest and southwest of Kurakhove, along with the dense fortifications south and northwest of the city, may have impeded Russian efforts to cut the N15 road. In addition, Ukraine transferred some much-needed reinforcements to the Kurakhove area in October-November, including from its 37th Marine Brigade.
More fundamentally, Russia is currently unable to execute offensive operations at scale, largely due to degraded force quality resulting from heavy attrition. Consequently, Russia must rely on small-scale assaults, which are unlikely to produce rapid advances. This problem similarly leaves Russia unable to exploit Kurakhove’s fall to achieve a major breakthrough.
It is worth noting, however, that while Ukraine dodged the worst-case scenario in Kurakhove, its troops west and southwest of the city still face some risk of encirclement. Russian forces have advanced to within 2-3 kilometers of the N15 highway on either side. Another area to watch is Velyka Novosilka, a small city about 30 kilometers southwest of Kurakhove that Russia has also partially enveloped. Even if units do not end up getting encircled, fighting inside a pocket tends to lead to higher casualties.
Going forward, Ukrainian commanders will need to carefully preserve their increasingly understrength and exhausted units, even as they seek to defend their land and sap Russian combat power.
