Israel is closely monitoring developments in Syria as Syrian Army forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad retreated from Hama, the second city the regime has lost to opposition forces in a week. Israeli Minister of Defense Israel Katz met with Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Chief of the General Staff Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi on December 5 as the situation rapidly shifted in Syria. “The IDF monitors developments and is prepared for all scenarios, offensive and defensive alike. The IDF will not tolerate threats near the Lebanon-Syria border and will thwart any threat against the State of Israel,” the IDF said in a statement.
It is the second high-level meeting that has taken place since the Syrian opposition group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) began its rapid offensive in late November. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held talks with defense officials about the situation in Syria on November 29. At the time, an Israeli official told Ynet that the situation “doesn’t necessarily affect us, especially not in the short term, but any erosion of stability in a neighboring country could also impact us. It seems here that there are also opportunities for change.”
Syria’s regime has lost even more ground in six days since the first high-level Israeli discussion. The loss of Hama by the regime will put Syrian rebel forces on the road to Homs and then Damascus if the regime’s fortunes deteriorate further. It is not clear if Iran and Russia will be able to mobilize sufficient assets to shore up Damascus. Iranian-backed militias in Iraq have considered deploying to Syria, although Iranian state media said on December 3 that one of the most powerful of these militias, Kataib Hezbollah, had not decided on a course of action. These militias have threatened Israel in the past and have launched drone attacks at Israel over the last year.
The Syrian regime is allied with Iran, and Tehran has smuggled weapons to Hezbollah via Syria over decades. On December 3, the IDF carried out an airstrike in Damascus “targeting Hezbollah’s representative to the Syrian military, Salman Nemer Jamaa.” The IDF said that Jamaa had “supported Hezbollah, enabling weapon smuggling to Lebanon and by that endangering Syrian and Lebanese civilians. Jamaa was a key Hezbollah figure supporting these operations.” This strike weakened Hezbollah’s role in Syria, the IDF said. In another strike during the past week, the IDF attacked a site on the Syria-Lebanon border used by Hezbollah. “The Hezbollah terrorist organization, backed by the Syrian regime, uses civilian infrastructure sites to conduct terrorist activities and smuggle weapons used against the residents of Israel,” the IDF said.
The crisis in Syria comes as Israel continues to face threats on several fronts, even though there is a ceasefire in Lebanon and fighting in Gaza is relatively low intensity. For instance, on December 5, the Israeli police and the IDF detained three suspects who were engaging in suspicious actions near the Israel-Jordanian border. This incident comes after other attacks, smuggling, and infiltration along the Jordanian border that have caused Israel to increase forces and focus on this area over the last year.
Meanwhile, in southern Lebanon, the Israeli military said that its 91st Division continues to be deployed in Lebanon, “neutralizing threats in the area.” These efforts include dismantling underground terrorist infrastructure and other activities. The division has fought in Lebanon for two months, uncovering weapons and eliminating Hezbollah members. The IDF says that units deployed in southern Lebanon during the ceasefire continue to find munitions and confront threats that terrorists pose to the border
