Just a year ago, the Islamic Republic was on the offensive as it used its proxies to launch coordinated attacks on Israel from six fronts to demonstrate the extent of its regional influence. Now, the momentum has shifted. Israeli operations have severely weakened Hamas and Hezbollah, Syrian rebels backed by Turkey wage a relentless war against Assad, and the United States targets Iranian-backed militia bases across Syria.
The Al-Qaeda-affiliated Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS; “Levant Liberation Committee”) launched a surprise offensive in Syria’s Idlib Province and captured Aleppo from Syrian regime forces on November 30, marking the most intense clashes in that country since 2016. Designated as a terrorist organization by the United States and backed by Turkey, HTS forces raided the Islamic Republic’s consulate and the military headquarters of Iran’s proxies stationed in Aleppo.
On the diplomatic front, Tehran reaffirmed its unwavering support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The Islamic Republic condemned the attacks, labeling them as “aggression by terrorist elements.” Despite asserting that no injuries occurred, Tehran provided few details about the incident. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi traveled to Damascus on December 1 to convey Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s steadfast backing of the Assad regime.
Tehran views its alliance with the Assad regime as a cornerstone of its strategic ambitions, extending its support well beyond rhetoric. In a swift response to counter rebel advances, Iranian-backed militias mobilized to bolster the Syrian Army. On December 2, Reuters reported that Iraqi Kata’ib Hezbollah and Afghan Fatemiyoun Brigades crossed into Syria from Iraq, heading north to reinforce the embattled Syrian forces. Additionally, Radio Farda’s November 30 report revealed that Iranian members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force joined these militias at the Iran-Iraq border before advancing into Syrian territory.
The fragile Syrian regime has heavily relied on not only Iranian but also Russian military support in its fights against rebels during its civil war, and this time is no exception. On November 30, Russian and Syrian jets launched airstrikes on Aleppo and other rebel strongholds in Idlib Province. The Moscow-Tehran-Damascus axis swiftly coordinated a response to halt the rebels, with Russian and Iranian leaders discussing joint actions against anti-Assad forces during a December 2 call.
The resurgence of Sunni extremism in Syria can partly be attributed to Tehran’s sectarian and Shia-supremacist policies. Following the de-escalation of the Syrian civil war in 2016, Iran initiated efforts to reshape Syria’s demographics, displacing Sunni communities to establish Shia dominance. These efforts included resettling Shia populations from Lebanon and Iraq and incentivizing conversions through cultural and economic incentives. Iran’s outreach ranged from restoring Shia shrines to offering financial aid, education, and healthcare to war-affected Syrians, effectively attempting to rewrite Syria’s religious identity.
This latest escalation comes at a precarious time for Tehran. Israel’s military campaign following the October 7 terrorist attacks has decimated Hamas and significantly weakened Hezbollah, Iran’s prized proxy. Despite Hezbollah leaders asserting that the Syrian regime is fully capable of repelling the rebels and does not need their support, reports suggest Hezbollah might refrain from direct involvement due to its recent heavy losses.
Assad now faces a critical dilemma: either sever ties with Tehran in pursuit of sanctions relief and potential reintegration into the international community or remain reliant on Iran, risking further isolation. Israel continues targeting Iran-backed militia bases across Syria, while Ankara exploits regional instability by arming HTS against Assad. In alignment with countering Iranian influence, Washington struck Tehran’s militia positions in Syria’s Deir ez-Zor region on December 1. Armenia, a previous ally of Assad, has also withdrawn its forces from Aleppo, further isolating the regime. From Assad’s perspective, his alliance with and reliance on Tehran has become a high-stakes gamble—one that appears increasingly unlikely to yield a favorable outcome.
Simultaneously, the US and its allies are reportedly exploring incentives to distance Assad from Tehran. Discussions between Washington and the UAE have considered lifting sanctions if Assad curtails Iranian weapons routes to Hezbollah. Allegedly, Assad sought assistance from Israel against Syrian opposition forces. Israel, however, emphasized that it remains uninterested in Syria’s internal dynamics and conditioned any engagement on Iran and its militias exiting Syrian territory.
