Yesterday, the Somali National Army (SNA) of the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) in Mogadishu was routed from the southern Somali town of Ras Kamboni. This battle was not with the SNA’s typical enemy—Shabaab, Al Qaeda’s branch for East Africa—but with the regional forces of Jubaland, a federal member state of Somalia.
According to Jubaland, clashes erupted in Ras Kamboni, situated near the border with Kenya, after the SNA reportedly launched drone strikes on Jubaland troops. This account was contradicted by the SNA, which stated Jubaland’s forces had targeted newly arrived troops to the city, ostensibly deployed to replace withdrawing African Union forces.
Jubaland also claimed that at least 10 people, mainly SNA troops, were killed in the clashes, while hundreds of SNA troops fled or surrendered, including stating that dozens surrendered to Kenya. The SNA denied this report and instead claimed victory.
The Kenyan Defense Forces have not officially confirmed receiving Somali troops fleeing the battle as of the time of publishing. However, anonymous Kenyan officials speaking to the media reportedly confirmed the veracity of photos purporting to show SNA troops surrendering inside Kenya.
Thus, accurate information about what actually took place remains scant. That said, the SNA officially announced its withdrawal from Somalia’s Lower Juba region, seemingly admitting defeat, just hours later. In an earlier statement, it also accused Jubaland President Ahmed Madobe of making a backdoor agreement with Shabaab, which maintains a significant presence within Lower Juba’s countryside, that allow the terrorist group safe passage to attack the SNA.
Why did this conflict happen?
Tensions between Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Madobe have been rising over recent months, with the disagreement related to the latter’s recent regional election victory.
In late November, Madobe was elected for this third term as Jubaland’s president. This result set off alarms in Mogadishu, as it broke Somalia’s constitutionally mandated two-term limit for regional leaders.
How the election took place also upset Mogadishu, as President Hassan Sheikh promotes universal suffrage over the current indirect clan-based voting system. Jubaland was quick to reject this idea and continued with its election using Somalia’s intricate clan system.
Following Madobe’s victory, Mogadishu declared the election invalid. After Madobe refused to step down, Mogadishu issued an arrest warrant for the regional leader. Madobe’s government responded in kind by issuing its own arrest warrant for Hassan Sheikh.
Around the same time, Hassan Sheikh deployed additional troops to Jubaland in moves he stated were intended to take over the bases of withdrawing African Union forces as part of their current drawdown plans.
Brief clashes then broke out in Ras Kamboni between Jubaland forces and SNA troops in the city, though these hostilities quickly ceased. The developments culminated in Madobe cutting Jubaland’s ties with Mogadishu and joining the northern region of Puntland as states no longer cooperating with Hassan Sheikh and the FGS.
Jubaland saw the federal government’s moves, including additional SNA deployments, as positioning units for a wider offensive against it to forcibly oust Madobe. Its concerns grew as dozens of Jubaland forces were shown defecting to the SNA, setting the stage for yesterday’s fierce battle.
The lingering Shabaab question
With Jubaland and the FGS in Mogadishu now in open conflict, what happens next regarding the ongoing battles against Shabaab is crucial.
Both forces have taken their eyes off of the Al Qaeda branch, a situation that will inevitably create more of an opening for the terrorist group to consolidate further in southern Somalia and rebound from previous losses. These developments come as African Union forces continue to draw down in Somalia, creating additional security gaps as Somalia fights among itself.
Jubaland and the SNA had periodically cooperated in the so-called “phase two” of the FGS’s ongoing counter-offensive against Shabaab. Mogadishu hoped to move the bulk of the fighting against the jihadist group from Somalia’s center regions to Shabaab’s core areas in Lower Juba during this phase.
As recently as October, Jubaland forces and the SNA jointly announced territorial gains against Shabaab after pushing the group out of several towns in Lower Juba and reportedly killing dozens of the group’s members. This joint offensive in Jubaland now risks becoming dead in the water unless the two sides can quickly reconcile and refocus their attention on Shabaab.
