In the latest issue of its Sada al-Malahem magazine, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) heaped significant praise on recent operations conducted by Shabaab, Al Qaeda’s branch in East Africa.
Penned by an ostensible foreign fighter in AQAP by the name of Abdullah Muhammad al-Muhajir, the article begins by extolling recent operations undertaken by Shabaab as proof of the advance of jihad in East Africa.
“The mujahideen brigades have responded to the call to jihad,” al-Muhajir beings, “and continue to deliver deadly blows to government militias and Somali forces trained by the United States […] and international forces under the umbrella of the African Union and the United Nations.”
Al-Muhajir continues by stating that recent attacks, such as the May 2023 assault on a Ugandan base in Buulo Mareer that killed at least 50 soldiers from the Uganda Peoples’ Defense Forces, “continue to amaze the international coalition, despite their strong fortifications, the strength of their military arsenal, and the availability of air cover.”
Referring to the ongoing though stalled counter-offensive against Shabaab in various parts of Somalia, the AQAP author mentions that in response to the offensive, “the soldiers of Tawhid have written historic epics in blowing up entire bases of Somali special forces, which are trained by the Americans. Neither the Americans, nor the Turks, nor the African Union could help them.”
The author ends this section by again praising Shabaab’s “precise planning, strong preparation, and diligent gathering of information” as reasons why it is able to “repel the aggression of occupation and Western hegemony.”
Expansion beyond Somalia
Al-Muhajir then turns to claiming that these victories have not been contained to Somalia and that Shabaab is expanding the jihad across East Africa.
“What indicates the degree of intensity of the jihadi market in East Africa is that the mujahideen have been able to open a complete, and active, military front inside Kenya,” al-Muhajir states.
He then claims that various attacks inside Kenya—where Shabaab has maintained active operations for years—have enabled local residents to turn to Shabaab and further strengthen its Kenyan wing. Shabaab operates a specific Kenyan wing, led by Kenyan native Ahmed Iman Ali, which has its own military component, Jaysh Ayman.
As a result of increasing activity in Kenya, according to al-Muhajir, “the call to incite believers [to jihad] has reached into Tanzania and neighboring areas.” As a result, al-Muhajir states, Shabaab’s training camps are now full of foreigners seeking to join the group’s ranks. Shabaab’s current activities inside Tanzania and wider East Africa, however, remain opaque.
In the past, Shabaab has had active affiliates in Tanzania, such as the Ansar Muslim Youth Centre and Al-Muhajiroun, though the current status of both remains diminished. However, Shabaab is still believed to be recruiting Tanzanians into its ranks.
Elsewhere, Shabaab has also recruited Ethiopians, Ugandans, Rwandans, and Burundians into its ranks to varying degrees. However, Shabaab remains in fierce competition with the Islamic State’s Somali branch for control and influence over the East African jihad.
Coordinated by the Islamic State in northern Somalia’s Puntland region, recruitment for other Islamic State groups, such as its Central Africa Province in Congo and Uganda and Mozambique Province, have undercut Shabaab’s market share of foreign recruitment streams across all aforementioned countries.
‘Protecting civilians’
Al-Muhajir winds down his article by stating that even though the West has demonized Shabaab and its attacks, the group prioritizes the protection of civilians and does not actively seek to target them. In making this point, al-Muhajir cherry-picks from researchers Jason Warner and Ellen Chapin’s 2018 report on Shabaab’s suicide bombings as “proof” of careful, targeted practices.
However, as detailed previously in a 2023 study conducted by FDD’s Long War Journal, civilians continue to be among the largest share of victims of Shabaab’s violence, particularly from its suicide bombing program. Shabaab responded to this study by claiming otherwise, a claim similarly refuted in an additional article by this publication. At any rate, al-Muhajir argues that the group’s alleged protection of civilian lives makes it popular among Somalia’s populace, which will inevitably help it to “restore Shari’a” to Somalia and across East Africa.
AQAP and Shabaab
Though Shabaab remains a large and constant threat to both Somalia and Kenya, its sister organization of AQAP remains relatively weakened compared to its height in the early-to-mid 2010s. Over the last year, AQAP has lost two important leaders: former emir Khalid Batarfi and Khaled Mohammed Salahaldin Zidane, the son of Sayf al-Adl, who is thought to be Al Qaeda’s current overall emir.
On the ground, AQAP has also intensified its military operations against both UAE-backed militias and hostile tribal forces in southern Yemen. The United Nations Sanctions and Monitoring Team’s report from January 2024 noted that AQAP maintained strong ties back to Al Qaeda’s central leadership and especially al-Adl. However, after the death of Zidane, this is more unclear.
The UN report also noted reported instances of the Houthis training AQAP in the use of drones and releasing AQAP members they had previously arrested. For its part, AQAP has not claimed any attacks on the Houthis in several years.
AQAP also continues to maintain significant relations with Shabaab, making al-Muhajir’s article praising the Somali group less surprising.
For instance, the most recent Sanctions and Monitoring Team’s report from July 2024 explicitly states that “AQAP maintains the strongest relationship with Al-Shabaab; both collaborate in weapons smuggling, personnel movement between Yemen and Africa, and finances. One Member State notes the continued use of the port in Shakra, Abyan, for smuggling and transit with Somalia.”
Thus, al-Muhajir’s article is another data point regarding the open support between these Al Qaeda branches.
