With Israel and Hamas having reached a ceasefire agreement, the rhetoric coming from Tehran is far from de-escalatory. Military and civilian officials within the Islamic Republic continue to underscore their commitment to rebuilding Hezbollah’s capabilities and have reiterated threats of launching a third phase of the “True Promise” operation against Israel.
Previously carried out in two coordinated attacks from Iranian soil on April 13 and October 1, the “True Promise” threats highlight Tehran’s strategy of sustained pressure. The ceasefire period offers Iran a crucial window to reassert its influence and strengthen its regional proxies, aiming to solidify its position and prepare for future confrontations with Israel.
Mahmoud Qomati, the deputy head of Hezbollah’s political council, reaffirmed the group’s devotion to the Palestinian cause on November 26, stating that Hezbollah will not “abandon” this mission. He also emphasized the organization’s intention to move forward with its “reconstruction” efforts, signaling continued violations of ceasefire terms and a determination to maintain influence in the region. Despite the agreement explicitly prohibiting Hezbollah’s presence in southern Lebanon, images and videos have surfaced showing members and supporters defiantly waving Hezbollah flags as they return to the region.
In line with Hezbollah’s statements and actions, the Islamic Republic has hinted at re-establishing Hezbollah’s capabilities. Abbas Moghtadaei, deputy chairman of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security Commission, reaffirmed Tehran’s ongoing support for its regional proxies On November 27 and asserted that “members of the Axis of Resistance will expand tremendously following this victory (ceasefire deal).” A day prior, Islamic Republic Assembly of Experts member Abbas Ka’bi, who has close ties to Hezbollah, stated that Hezbollah cannot be expelled from southern Lebanon and added that the group “will remain armed in the south (of Lebanon).”
The IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency has advocated for the rearmament of Hezbollah, outlining a two-pronged strategy for Tehran following the ceasefire. The outlet emphasized the importance of “mitigating past security breaches,” likely referencing Israel’s intelligence superiority that enabled targeted pager and radio attacks affecting thousands of Hezbollah fighters. Most importantly, Tasnim highlighted the need to replenish Hezbollah’s arsenal, referring to drones, rockets, and missiles produced in Iran.
Tehran’s calls for enhancing Hezbollah’s military strength appear tied to its broader strategy of retaliating against Israel’s recent military actions on Iranian territory. While Israel officially confirmed that its air force successfully struck 20 sites on October 26, it withheld operational specifics. However, open-source intelligence and independent reports suggest that the strikes inflicted significant damage on Iran’s ballistic missile program and S-300 air defense systems.
The Islamic Republic’s apparent openness to a ceasefire may stem from the disruption caused by these attacks, which likely hinder Iran’s ability to supply arms to its regional proxies until it can restore missile production capabilities. Nonetheless, Tehran feels compelled to retaliate to maintain its credibility among allies and followers, underscoring the high stakes in its confrontation with Israel.
During a meeting with the regime’s armed forces on November 27, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei urged heightened naval preparedness amid rising tensions with Israel, emphasizing deterrence as a strategic priority. Khamenei remarked, “The foremost duty of the armed forces is to avert enemy aggression. You must project the nation’s combat readiness in such a way that hostile forces recognize the severe costs of any confrontation.”
Reflecting the regime’s stance, Kayhan—a publication closely aligned with Khamenei’s office—underscored the Axis of Resistance’s resolve against Israel. It noted that “despite the ceasefire, Hezbollah has continued its operations,” signaling a broader unwillingness within the coalition to pause the campaign against Israel.
Ahmad Vahidi, a former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force commander who also served as Iran’s interior minister, law enforcement deputy commander, and chairman of the Supreme National Security Council, stated on November 26 that the Axis of Resistance remains determined to back Hamas until Israel halts its military campaign in Gaza. Vahidi also noted that “the tensions will naturally continue until a ceasefire is reached.”
IRGC General and Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces Mohammad Bagheri threatened that Iran’s retaliation for Israel’s recent aggression would surpass expectations, emphasizing that this response would differ in tactics, execution, and weaponry. Similarly, IRGC member and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf declared on November 26, “Hezbollah is more alive than ever,” pledging to proceed with the “True Promise 3.”
The administration of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian echoed these sentiments on November 27. In a press briefing in response to the ceasefire deal, the Foreign Ministry spokesman reiterated Tehran’s “unwavering” support for Lebanese Hezbollah’s “resistance” against Israel.
Amid Iran’s threats of a decisive retaliation against Israel, Jerusalem and Washington have reaffirmed their alignment in addressing this shared threat. Following the approval of a ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced on November 26 that Israel would now shift its strategic focus to “the head of the octopus”—the regime in Tehran. On the same day, President-elect Donald Trump’s national security advisor nominee, Mike Waltz, said the incoming US administration aims to restore stability in the Middle East by reimplementing the “Maximum Pressure” campaign against Tehran.
