“The Russians have begun counter-offensive actions” in Kursk Oblast, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Thursday. Although information about Russia’s progress remains fragmentary, Moscow’s forces have retaken at least some territory. Here is what we know so far.
On September 10, Russian sources claimed that forces from the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade, 106th Airborne Division, and 7th Air Assault Division’s 56th Air Assault Regiment had begun attacking the western flank of Ukraine’s salient in Kursk Oblast. Forces from these units, which are among Russia’s better formations, had redeployed to the region after Kyiv launched its offensive on August 6.
On September 12, the Russian Defense Ministry alleged that its forces had retaken 10 villages over the prior two days. The status of most of those settlements remains unconfirmed. But Russian troops have made at least some progress.
On September 10, a Russian Telegram channel shared footage of eight tanks and other armored fighting vehicles from the 106th Division’s 51st Airborne Regiment entering the Ukrainian-controlled village of Snagost. They approached from the city of Korenevo to the northeast. The channel later posted footage of Ukrainian POWs purportedly captured in the Snagost area.
Reportedly, other Russian forces crossed the Seym River before launching attacks. Ukraine’s new Unmanned Systems Forces later shared footage of strikes on a Russian platoon-sized element and a Zemledeliye remote-mining system attempting to cross the Seym River north of the Russian-controlled town of Glushkovo.
On the morning of September 11, a Ukrainian volunteer and former soldier who supplies equipment to Ukrainian troops reported that Russian forces had “overwhelmed” troops from Ukraine’s 103rd Territorial Defense Brigade. He said that “drone operator positions were exposed,” resulting in “terrible consequences.” How much resistance Russian troops met in Snagost is uncertain, but they apparently cleared the village by September 13.
In addition to Snagost, troops from the 106th Division appear to have retaken the villages of Krasnooktyabr’skoe and Komarovka. (The extent to which Ukraine ever actually controlled the latter is unclear.) Forces from the 106th Division’s 137th Airborne Regiment also attacked northeast of Snagost toward Liubimovka. Taking Liubimovka would allow Russia to reach the Sudzha-Korenevo road, potentially encircling Ukrainian troops north of the village.
On September 11, the Ukrainian volunteer, along with some Russian sources, reported that Russian troops had reached the village of Obukhovka, southeast of Snagost. On September 13, however, the volunteer said Ukraine had retaken Obukhovka. The Russian Defense Ministry also reported a Ukrainian counterattack at Obukhovka but claimed it was unsuccessful. NASA satellite data on fires in the region provide further evidence that fighting has shifted from Snagost to the Obukhovka area.
Meanwhile, to the southwest, Ukraine has launched counterattacks in the Glushkovsky district, apparently aiming to disrupt the Russian attackers by threatening their rear. Video footage, along with reports by the Russian Defense Ministry and other Russian sources, indicate that Ukrainian armored fighting vehicles, supported by engineering equipment, have attacked toward the villages of Veseloe and Medvedzhe.
Ukrainian forces have also continued to conduct some attacks in the eastern and northern parts of their salient in Kursk Oblast, according to the Russian Defense Ministry. If true, this suggests Russia has not yet fully seized the operational initiative.
A key question is whether Russia’s recent advances in Kursk Oblast presage a broader counteroffensive to retake the rest of Kursk Oblast in the near future. If so, the Russians may end up having to redeploy additional forces to the region, assuming the Ukrainians put up a stout defense. Moscow might be forced to pull troops from the areas near Pokrovsk and Kurakhove in Donetsk Oblast, where Russian forces are currently on the attack. Thus far, the Kremlin seems to have opted for patience in Kursk while prioritizing its offensive in Donetsk.
