Analysis: The “bonds are close” as the Pakistani Taliban benefits from its Afghan safe haven

Noor Wali Mehsud
Noor Wali Mehsud, the emir of the TTP.

The Afghan Taliban and the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan maintain a “close” relationship, the United Nations Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team reported. The Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan (Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan or TTP) “continues to operate at significant scale in Afghanistan and to conduct terrorist operations into Pakistan from there” with the support of the Afghan Taliban, according to the Monitoring Team. Additionally, the TTP receives support from Al Qaeda, which the Afghan Taliban also backs.

The Monitoring Team detailed the TTP’s training and operations in Afghanistan in its latest 1267 report on Afghanistan on July 10. “[The] Afghan Taliban have proved unable or unwilling to manage the threat posed by Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan,” the report noted. “Member States described this as too big a challenge for the Afghan Taliban to manage, even if they wanted to.”

“[T]he bonds are close”

“The Taliban do not conceive of TTP as a terrorist group: the bonds are close, and the debt owed to TTP significant,” The Monitoring Team reported. The debt the Monitoring Team is referring to is the TTP’s support for the Afghan Taliban over nearly two decades as the Afghan Taliban fought to overthrow the now-defunct Afghan government and expel the US and its allies from the country. The Taliban ultimately succeeded when it overran Afghanistan during the summer of 2021 and seized Kabul on August 15, 2021. The US left Afghanistan at the end of that month.

Tens of thousands of Pakistani Taliban fighters were killed during the Afghan Taliban’s bloody insurgency. And the TTP provided a safe haven for Afghan Taliban leaders and fighters when it controlled large swaths of western Pakistan between 2007 and 2013.

The Afghan Taliban and the TTP share the same ideological goals: taking control of their respective countries and imposing their harsh version of Sharia, or Islamic Law. The Afghan Taliban succeeded at these aims in the summer of 2021 when it reestablished its repressive Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. Similarly, the TTP seeks to overthrow the Pakistani government and establish an Islamic Emirate of Pakistan.

There are deep organizational ties between the Afghan Taliban and the TTP. In mid-August 2021, just days after the Afghan Taliban took control of Afghanistan, Noor Wali Mehsud, the emir of TTP, renewed his oath of allegiance to the Taliban’s Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. In his statement, Mehsud congratulated the Afghan Taliban’s “Emir of the Faithful,” Haibatullah Akhundzada, as well as his deputies, Sirajuddin Haqqani (the Islamic Emirate’s deputy emir and now minister of interior), Muhammad Yaqub Sahib (the other deputy emir and now the minister of defense), and Mullah Baradar. Al Qaeda’s emir has also sworn allegiance to the Taliban’s emir and refers to him as the “Emir of the Faithful.”

The Monitoring Team reports that the Afghan Taliban has provided the TTP with “[NATO] calibre weapons, especially night vision capability, that have been provided to TTP since the Taliban takeover.” The Afghan Taliban seized billions of dollars of US and NATO weapons and gear that Western forces had provided to the former Afghan National Defense and Security Forces. The provision of sophisticated, expensive, and hard-to-obtain military-grade equipment, such as night vision devices, speaks volumes about the Afghan Taliban’s commitment to the TTP.

Al Qaeda supports the TTP inside Afghanistan

The Monitoring Team detailed how Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), Al Qaeda’s regional branch in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan, provides critical support for the TTP in both Afghanistan and Pakistan. The Monitoring Team also described Al Qaeda’s burgeoning infrastructure in Afghanistan that’s supported by the Afghan Taliban, including the establishment and operation of training camps in 12 of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces. [See LWJ report: Analysis: Al Qaeda expands its network of training camps in Afghanistan.]

“Member States continue to detail ad hoc support to, and tolerance of, TTP operations [by the Afghan Taliban], including the supplying of weapons and permission for training and support from Al-Qaida in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) in particular,” the Monitoring Team noted.

TTP operatives train in Al Qaeda camps in Kandahar, Kunar, Nangarhar, and Takhar provinces. Simultaneously, AQIS “assists TTP in conducting terrorist attacks inside Pakistan, with Tehrik-e Jihad Pakistan (TJP, not listed) claiming responsibility so as to relieve pressure on the de facto authorities.” In a previous report, the Monitoring Team noted that Al Qaeda was training TTP suicide bombers at camps in Kunar.

Al Qaeda’s “support of TTP includes the sharing of Afghan fighters for its tashkils (in this context, military staffing or a formation) and training camps in Afghanistan,” the Monitoring Team reported. “Training provided by AQIS has resulted in TTP shifting tactics and high-profile attacks against hard targets.”

Is TTP “the largest terrorist group in Afghanistan”?

The Monitoring Team describes the TTP as “the largest terrorist group in Afghanistan, with an estimated strength of 6,000–6,500 fighters.”

FDD’s Long War Journal disagrees, assessing that the Afghan Taliban and its Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan comprise the largest terrorist group in the country. In addition to the Afghan Taliban harboring other terrorist groups such as Al Qaeda and the TTP, many of its leaders, including Sirajuddin Haqqani, are listed by the US government as Specially Designated Global Terrorists. Sirajuddin’s Haqqani Network, an integral and perhaps the most powerful Taliban faction, is also classified as a Foreign Terrorist Organization.

Bill Roggio is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the Editor of FDD's Long War Journal.

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