Analysis: Hezbollah rocket fire kills 12 civilians in northern Israel

Aftermath of rocket attack in northern Israel
Israeli security forces and medics transport casualties from a site where a reported strike from Lebanon fell in Majdal Shams village in the Israeli-annexed Golan area on July 27, 2024. (Photo by JALAA MAREY/AFP via Getty Images)

Rocket fire from Lebanon killed 12 Israeli civilians in the northern Druze town of Majdal Shams on July 27. The victims, aged 10 to 20, were at a soccer field when a rocket struck the area, killing them and wounding at least 29 others. 

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) blamed Hezbollah for the attack and stated the rocket launch originated in southern Lebanon. “According to an IDF situational assessment and the intelligence in our possession, the rocket launch toward Majdal Shams was carried out by the Hezbollah terrorist organization from an area located north of the village of Chebaa in southern Lebanon,” stated the IDF.

Hezbollah issued a statement via its online Central Media channel saying it was not connected with the attack on Majdal Shams.

“The Islamic Resistance in Lebanon categorically denies the allegations reported by some enemy media outlets and various media platforms regarding the targeting of Majdal Shams, and confirms that the Islamic Resistance has no connection to the incident at all, and categorically denies all false allegations in this regard,” the group stated.

The IDF identified the munition used in the attack, saying that it was an Iranian-made Falaq 1 rocket carrying a 50kg warhead that is exclusively used by Hezbollah. Furthermore, IDF Arabic spokesperson Avichay Adraee revealed that the Hezbollah commander behind the launch is Ali Muhammed Yahya.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu published a statement saying he would hold a security cabinet meeting immediately following his return from the United States. Furthermore, Netanyahu warned that the Jewish state would respond to the attack.

The mass casualty event triggered by Hezbollah’s rocket fire on Majdal Shams marks a significant shift for Israel, which had avoided such incidents over the last nine months of conflict with Iran’s proxy. However, persistent attacks from Hezbollah, including rockets, mortars, and drones targeting northern Israel, made a serious incident increasingly likely. It is reasonable to conclude that Hezbollah was prepared for this eventuality, whether or not it intended to kill 12 civilians.

One thing is certain: Israel will seek to deliver a blow to Hezbollah. A crucial aspect of the response will be whether it inflicts damage sufficient to hurt the organization without escalating the conflict into an all-out war. However, with Hezbollah’s strike on Majdal Shams, the balance may now have tipped toward a full-scale conflict.

Joe Truzman is an editor and senior research analyst at FDD's Long War Journal focused primarily on Palestinian armed groups and non-state actors in the Middle East.

Tags: , , ,

Iraq

Islamic state

Syria

Aqap

Al shabaab

Boko Haram

Isis