Indicators suggest that Tehran supports the Houthi anti-ship missile attack against the US Navy this past week. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps held the US directly responsible for the devastating Saudi-led coalition bombing last week in Sanaa, Yemen. The IRGC sought to pressure the US in order to push the Saudis to deescalate the war, calculating that the US wants to avoid more involvement in the war in Yemen.
The Islamic State has officially recognized a loyalty oath sworn by Abu Walid al Sahrawi, a jihadist based in West Africa. Sahrawi first swore his fealty to Abu Bakr al Baghdadi in May 2015. It is not clear why it took so long for the so-called caliphate to recognize him as one of its representatives.
Al Qaeda’s rebranded guerrilla army in Syria is fighting alongside other jihadists, Islamists and Free Syrian Army-branded rebels in an offensive intended to break the Assad regime’s siege of Aleppo. Most of the participating groups belong to two coalitions: Jaysh al Fath (“Army of Conquest”) and Fatah Halab (“Aleppo Conquest”). These same two alliances tried and failed to break the siege earlier this year.
A major battle has commenced in Aleppo between the array of pro-government and opposition forces that include Sunni and Shiite jihadists. Another high-ranking former IRGC commander has been killed in Syria. Iranian media claim he died while undertaking “advisory mission,” but Guard commanders are engaged in direct combat operations, as well.
At least 11 rocket launchers, four howitzers (including two US-made M198 howitzers), one American-made M1 Abrams, and one US M88 Recovery Vehicle were spotted in a Hezbollah Brigades convoy moving towards Mosul.
The Islamic State-loyal forces withdrew just a day after capturing Qandala. However, the small branch did demonstrate it has the capabilities to even temporarily take over and hold ground.
Qods Force Commander Major General Qassem Soleimani was in Tehran today visiting the families of Iranians who lost members in Syria, after a confirmed sighting in Iraqi Kurdistan on Oct. 23.
A Taliban spokesman released a video of an interview of fighters from the base. Like the recent ambush in Helmand’s capital, the Taliban fighters clearly are not concerned about either a counterattack or airstrikes.
There have been at least 31 airstrikes against AQAP in Yemen in 2016, according to data compiled by The Long War Journal.
The US targeted Faruq al Qatani and Bilal al Utabi in an airstrike in Kunar Province, Afghanistan on Oct. 23. Both of them have been involved in al Qaeda’s anti-Western plotting, according to the Pentagon. Qatani was identified as a key al Qaeda commander in Osama bin Laden’s files.
Lt. Gen. Stephen Townsend said today that the Islamic State is planning attacks against the West (“external operations”) from its headquarters in Raqqa, Syria. Townsend didn’t provide any specifics, but the group has used its safe havens to orchestrate multiple plots in the past.
This marks the first time the fledgling Islamic State branch has claimed control over a town in Somalia.
Shabaab continues to demonstrate its deadliness in both Kenya and Somalia.
Islamic State’s Khorasan province and the Karachi faction of the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan both claimed credit for the attack on a police academy in Quetta that killed more than 60 cadets. Pakistani officials claimed the suicide assault was executed by Lashkar-e-Jhangvi al Almi.
The Basij Fatehin special forces, an all-volunteer group established following the 2009 post-election protests that serves as a “model” auxiliary unit to the IRGC Ground Forces in Syria, will expand to boost the IRGC’s operational capabilities. The Fatehin commander has proclaimed that the participation of this unit and IRGC-backed foreign proxies in Syria herald the formation of a global Basij, and that the Fatehin is “ready to conquer Israel.”
IRGC-QF Commander Qassem Soleimani was spotted in Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government area yesterday visiting the family of a deceased Kurdish Peshmarga commander. The visit marked the first confirmed sighting of Soleimani in Iraq since the siege of Mosul was launched last week.
The military said it is attempting to deny al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula “a haven” in Yemen. The group still controls rural areas in the south.
Six provincial capitals now are threatened by the Taliban. On Oct. 16, the Taliban assaulted Maimana, Faryab’s capital from three directions and attacked the city’s airport and an Afghan Army base, but were repulsed by Afghan forces.
The US carried out 330 airstrikes against the Islamic State in Sirte, Libya between Aug. 1 and Oct. 18, according to data released by US Africa Command. Nearly half of these (150) were launched during the first 18 days of October. The figures indicate that the American air campaign has accelerated in its third month as the US and its Libyan allies are still trying to eject the Islamic State from the city.
The shooter is said to have been wearing an Afghan Army uniform. If the shooting is confirmed to be a green-on-blue or insider attack, where Afghan police or soldiers target Coalition personnel, then it would be the first recorded incident since April 2015.
The fight in Iraq, as in other jihadist theaters, ebbs and flows. For the Islamic State, it is currently retreating from many of the cities it once held. But do not expect a lasting defeat of the Islamic State.
Today’s attempted prison break is just the most recent in a spate of attacks in Niger from suspected Malian-based jihadists.
The Islamic State claims to have carried out 12 suicide bombings south and east of Mosul during the first hours of the battle to retake the city. However, the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) claims that the suicide attackers were neutralized. The so-called caliphate has increasingly relied on its “martyrs” as it has lost ground in the past.
The Syrian town of Dabiq, which has long been central to the Islamic State’s apocalyptic messaging, was captured by Turkish-backed rebel forces on Oct. 16. Turkey’s Operation Euphrates Shield says that more than 1,300 square kilometers of territory along Syria’s border with Turkey has been seized from the Islamic State since August.
A Taliban video documents the aftermath of last week’s ambush on Afghan security personnel on the outskirts the provincial capital of Helmand which resulted in scores of troops killed and dozens more captured.
The anti-Islamic State coalition, which includes Kurdish, Sunni, and Shiite militias, has begun the operation to retake Mosul. Iranian-backed Shiite militias are expected to play a key role in the upcoming battle.
The Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) has claimed its second attack in two months. Both reportedly occurred in the same area of northern Burkina Faso near the border with Mali.
A deeper look at a recent airstrike in Sanaa by the Saudi-led military coalition, where Iranian security elites display a penchant for narrative, a circumscription of their own support for the war, as well the traditional blaming of the United States. In so doing, light is shed on how these security planners see their regional rivalries.
No group has to yet to claim this, but al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb has been behind several kidnappings of Westerners in Niger in the past.
Iran’s conventional Navy reportedly deployed two vessels to international waters surrounding Yemen yesterday. First reported in the semi-official Iranian press, the story has also been noted in the Western press, where it was framed as part of the larger Saudi-Iranian rivalry and the ongoing war in Yemen.