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An incomplete videotape by Osama bin Laden, titled “A Message to the American People.” The US military believes it was produced sometime between Oct. 9 and Nov. 5, 2010. |
Osama bin Laden directed al Qaeda’s global operations from his “command center” in a compound in the northwestern Pakistani city of Abbottabad before he was killed in a US raid on May 2, according to a senior US intelligence official. The US military has released videotapes that show bin Laden recording propaganda tapes in the compound and watching footage of himself on television.
“This compound in Abbottabad was an active command and control center for al Qaeda’s top leader and it’s clear … that he was not just a strategic thinker for the group,” the official told reporters, according to the Department of Defense transcript. “He was active in operational planning and in driving tactical decisions inside al Qaeda.”
“The materials reviewed over the past several days clearly show that bin Laden remained an active leader in al Qaeda, providing strategic, operational and tactical instructions to the group,” continued the official. “Though separated from many al Qaeda members who are located in more remote areas of the region, he was far from a figurehead. He was an active player making the recent operation even more essential for our nation’s security.”
Bin Laden was also “giving strategic direction” to al Qaeda affiliated groups such as Shabaab in Somalia and al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula in Yemen, officials told The Associated Press.
The US military has released five videotapes. Four of them show bin Laden rehearsing propaganda messages, and the other shows him channel surfing on a small television while wrapped in a blanket and wearing a cap. In that tape, he appears to be watching news related to al Qaeda’s activities; pictured on the television is jihadist propaganda, including stock footage of the al Qaeda emir taken prior to Sept. 11, 2001. In some of the videos in which he is seen rehearsing prepared statements, his beard is dyed black.
“This is clearly an al Qaeda leader who was very interested in his own image,” the defense official continued. “And he took very seriously and engaged very heavily in al Qaeda propaganda operations … our take-away is that he jealously guarded his image.”
The tapes are part of what has been described as a “treasure trove” of data, including numerous computer hard drives, CDs, thumb drives, and documents seized during the May 2 raid that killed the highly-sought terrorist at the fortified safe house in Abbottabad. Hundreds of CIA and FBI analysts are frantically reviewing the tapes to gain insight on al Qaeda’s network and bin Laden’s activities.
The intelligence official quoted by Reuters said that bin Laden’s deputy, Ayman al Zawahiri, is likely to assume control of al Qaeda, despite his description as an “extremely controlling … micromanager [who] is not especially charismatic.” Zawahiri is also known to have created fissures in wider jihadist circles by criticizing popular movements, such as Hamas, for any willingness to seek political solutions. Zawahiri’s critiques often divide al Qaeda supporters and members into opposing camps, as evidenced in the reactions to his statements at jihadist Internet forums.
The official also speculated that al Qaeda’s failure to appoint a new leader demonstrates that the terror group is shocked by bin Laden’s death. It is “noteworthy that the group did not announce a new leader, suggesting it is still trying to deal with bin Laden’s demise,” he told Reuters.
But al Qaeda, like other allied Islamist terror groups, appoints leaders by convening its shura, or council. A new leader is selected only after the members of the shura reach a consensus, a process that often takes days to weeks. The Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan waited three weeks to select Hakeemullah Mehsud to replace Baitullah Mehsud after the latter was killed in a US Predator airstrike in South Waziristan, Pakistan in August 2009.
Aside from Zawahiri, other possible contenders to lead al Qaeda include Saif al Adel, Abu Yahya al Libi, Sa’ad bin Laden, and Ilyas Kashmiri [see LWJ report, After bin Laden: who will lead al Qaeda?.]
An Associated Press report on bin Laden videos, with additional clips:
33 Comments
Bill said
Which means they have to either meet or at least communicate to coordinate the new leader. I’m sure the CIA and DoD are well aware of this and are very, very interested in finding out where these meetings will take place.
Given the tribal culture they probably will have to meet face to face to argue this one out (it won’t be quite like appointing Meshud Jr to the leadership of the TTP). Perhaps outside the FATA (given the drones)? In a Pakistani city? Quetta? I’m sure we will be pressing the ISI for their contacts. That is a huge opportunity for another raid or bombing attack.
You have to think that the ISI would have charged the Taliban and AQ for the right to have bin laden in a military town. the charge would have come as a slice of the multibillion dollar opium trade that got restarted again in what? 2005 or about the time OBL took up his new residence.
So what happens with OBL dead. Can the ISI continue to get its cut? Will the Taliban continue to pay protection money? Will the Taliban continue to respect the ISI.
I keep seeing Saad bin Laden mentioned as a possible successor. Wasn’t he killed in an airstrike in 2009?
I cannot help but question the political decisions that were made in the taking of OBL. It seems to me, that taking him alive provides the option of him providing intel, whether by force, coercion, or negotiation. It turns out that the opportunity to take him alive was likely there, but we decided beforehand (for political reasons) not to try. Eventually we could have administered the justice that he richly deserved.
Also, by announcing all of the details, that it was OBL, we lost the ability to monitor the AQ communications network. If we only announced that the raid was against a suspected HVT, with no other details, the AQ network would have been buzzing looking for news. This would have given us a slightly longer window to exploit any intel that we will have gathered from the raid. The administration working group has been thinking this through for months, I think they blew this part of the mission.
Happy that all are safe and this is a great win for our side, just pointing out we could have done better.
Will be serving OBL specials at our family party tomorrow = two shots and a splash of water!
All I know is that the Taliban have promised a massive bombing campaign in Peshawar and Karachi to take revenge against the drone attacks and Bin Laden’s death.
Better get ready for mass casualties and horror.
Charles
“So what happens with OBL dead. Can the ISI continue to get its cut? Will the Taliban continue to pay protection money? Will the Taliban continue to respect the ISI.”
Charles brings up a good point. If the ISI protection of the Taliban et al didn’t help Bin Laden, the Taliban may take revenge on the ISI.
With both the Americans and the Jihadists pissed off at the ISI, the ISI is between a rock and a hard place. One can imagine the ISI telling the Taliban, “We in the ISI are all that stand between you and the Americans,” and the ISI telling something similar to the Americans. At this stage, neither the Taliban nor the Americans will be inclined to believe the ISI anymore.
Vienna,08-05-2011
Bill Boss,
I would cite Zul Fiqr Ali Bhutto
@chicago “If we only announced that the raid was against a suspected HVT, with no other details, the AQ network would have been buzzing looking for news. This would have given us a slightly longer window to exploit any intel that we will have gathered from the raid.”
Excellent point! To announce all around the world that you got a truckload of intel will make it less valuable.
Of course, there is a possibility that the intel was not so good and the announcement will make HVT terrorists squirm. Time will tell.
Much is being made about whether UBL COULD have been taken alive.
Little attention is being taken of the events, as they unfolded.
At the moment the confrontation with UBL occurred, the team KNEW their 2nd Helicopter was toast. It had to occur to the team leader that there was good chance they (the team) might not be successfully extracted. If the mission had been restricted to capture, and extraction proved impossible, UBL would have been in ISI custody.
Stop 2nd guessing the troops in the boots.
UBL in ISI custody would be the same as not capturing him in the first place.
Shooting the SOB meant he was NOT going to be around even if the team were captured.
Pakistan possesses the world’s 5th-largest nuclear arsenal, lest we forget, and AlQaeda definitely wants to get its hands on that. One way to do that is by overthrowing the Pakistani state. It would be in AlQaeda’s interest to parlay the anger and outrage at Bin Laden’s killing into a Taliban jihad against the Pak military and ISI.
The protection money the ISI got from the Taliban may be the reason that the intel stash is being so broadly promoted– and why the Pakis warn of such dire consequences if the US does another OBL like hit in Pakistan.
The US is telling the Taliban/AQ/et al that the Pakis can’t protect them –so why pay.
imho the Pakis need a new business model.
The USA proposed a new business model when a geological survey found 1 trillion dollars worth of natural resources in Afghanistan. its also not likely that if the Pakis allowed a similar survey team in Pakistan–that natural resources there wouldn’t yield similar numbers.
Our troops acted in self defense. Our President acted in self defense. And, they all acted in defense of our Country.
To all of you who keep trying to suggest that this was politically motivated, or it was an “assassination”, or it was murder I say, quit playing politics with our national security.
By calling it assassination you are also complicity calling our Navy Seals murderers which I think is very offensive and slanderous to say the least.
Who’s to say that guy didn’t sleep wearing a suicide vest (and others like him).
This mission will hopefully serve as a role model for future missions. I have said all along that the goal to strive for is to just eliminate the bad guys and then leave.
To all you Monday morning quarterbacks out there on steroids (many if not most in the news media) I say you got any better ideas on how to do it let’s hear them.
Instead, all you do is hyper criticize every thing our guys do and you have absolutely nothing to offer as adequate substitutes.
@chicago…there are two side to every coin; its probably better he has been eliminated. With OBL in some prison/jail (etc) cell it would’ve probably resulted taking on a “life of it’s own” sensationalism or drama that would result in other unwanted consequences. Now, we don’t have to go there.
whoever protected ubl probably didn’t do it for money. by the way, intelligence agencies are not businesses and are not primarily interested in making money.
and al qaeda, certainly aware that number 1 and 2 could be killed at any time, most likely has already discussed the leadership issue before his death. never underestimate an enemy.
@chicago: by killing OBL, we now have no need for the enhanced interrogations, gitmo, or a host of other security responses that his continued house arrest would have required. The whole secrecy behind the war on terror was that one man, with no country, no home, and no one to answer to but God/Allah/Himself, could disrupt the whole of civilization. The US just proved that we can and will stop that from happening. Much of the new war on terror will be for legal rights of minorities, or legal retribution for crimes against persons. Entire meanings of peace and civility requires it.
@Tim: “I keep seeing Saad bin Laden mentioned as a possible successor. Wasn’t he killed in an airstrike in 2009?”
That was speculated upon but since then SBL has been added to the US Treasurey list of designated terrorists. The US probably have some intel that he’s not dead.
I think “michael” is right. I think rather too many people have the idea that because corruption is endemic in Palkistan that they’re just in it for the money. That (if I might be so crude) is a rather American view.
The ISI is there for the protection of the (Islamic) Pakistani state and I’m sure the folks that work for it are in it for the same reason that the folks at the CIA work for the CIA. They have an Islamic (but not universal Islamist viewpoint). They’re paranoid about the Indians (for no really good reason) because the split from India is the raison d’etre of Pakistan. And because they’ve lost every war with India. They feel an existential threat. So they use the Islamists for their own purposes (strength in depth in Afghanistan and Pakistan should the Indians invade and to keep India out of Pakistan).
Think of a rather paranoid guy (the ISI) with a pack of pit bulls (the Islamists with all the TLAs). The guy isn’t a pit bull but he hopes to use the pit bulls to frighten folks and, if needed, to bite them (Mumbai, insurgency in Afghanistan). The problem is some of the pit bulls have got off the leash. and they now are biting their owner but they’re also scaring the other folks. What to do? That’s a risk of having such aggressive dogs. Right now they hope one of the off leash dogs doesn’t latch on to their leg.
The other issue is AQ/TTP and the Pakistani nukes. The nukes would only be of use to AQ if they are stateless. AQ has already found that when they were coupled to the Taliban in Afghanistan that a country makes a great target to retaliate against (and they’ve lost a lot because of it). If AQ/TTP were to take Pakistan then the nukes become useless to any semi-rational leader because to use them would mean massive retaliation (even if conventional) against Pakistan if used against the US or the West. Or possible nuclear retaliation from India if used against the Indians. It would certainly mean the “end of Pakistan as we know it” not quite the goal the ISI is fighting for. The ISI want to preserve Pakistan so they don’t want to run the risk that they will get a “suicide leader” in charge of the nukes. The nukes are for sabre rattling and deterring overrunning attacks (mostly from India but perhaps China) but as we’ve seen in the UBL raid they don’t deter superpowers.
So the ISI and the Pakistani government (not quite the same thing) are in a very interesting position. They’re trying to keep a delicate balance in place. Too far one way and they let the US and India dominate in South Asia. Too far the other way and they wake up with the TTP in Islamabad. The double game is so welded into their psyche they’ll find to hard to give up.Perhaps only an existential threat to Pakistan might be enough to get them to change their mind? Or perhaps that will just make them more paranoid.
“I can tell you directly that — I’ve not seen evidence that would tell us that the political, the military, or the intelligence leadership had foreknowledge — of bin Laden,” Tom Donilon told NBC’s “Meet the Press” when asked if Pakistan was guilty of harbouring the al Qaeda leader. (MSNBC)
Just as I suspected: the same old hypocrisy. Nothing has changed and nothing will, at least in public.
Ever hear of O.J. Simpson? They had him in custody, plainly guilty, and he beat the rap. OBL alive would have created demands for a trial, which could have been gamed.
They should have killed his wife too. Any future brats she produces will just bring more problems.
michael…
You are entirely incorrect WRT the ISI — it IS a money machine. Its intelligence function is eclipsed by its revenue function.
Pakistan does not have – remotely – enough tax revenue to support their army or ISI.
Instead, like the PLA in China, these entities are expected to be self-funding.
This means that, like the Egyptian Army, the Pak Army directly owns factories and other businesses.
Narcotics distribution – opiates out of Afghanistan – have long been a revenue gusher for the ISI.
You will note that the biggest air base in Waziristan is just down the road from Taliban HQ! They don’t maintain fighters there — but it’s mighty handy for narcotics transport. Not withstanding its remote location, someone maintains it in tip top condition. By comparison, all of the surrounding huts look so 8th Century.
first think about the cost of of bring OBL home and putting him on trial. and the mad rush of hostage situations to get him back.
this declaration of his death was a big morale booster to our country and it also put a lot of pressure on the Pakistani govt.
Umar Patek was arrested in january down the street from osama bin laden , cia has yet to interogate patek in if patek was in abbotobad why was not bin laden spooked can any one answer this>
kp seems close to the truth…
Even the Pakistani government is starting to crack over Bin Laden not having some military/intelligence support to maintain effective command centers in urban areas for the past 5+ years.
ABC News: Osama Bin Laden Aided by Rogue or Retired Elements of Pakistani Intelligence, Government Official Says
They should capture Bin Laden instead of killing him. CIA would get some information about ALKaida structure form “the source”
I was convinced that the U.S. had to have informed Pakistan prior to the raid (what if it was mistaken for an intrusion by India?). Specifically, it was the report by the Abbottabad police that the Pakistani Army had already cordoned off the area by the time they arrived that did it for me. Now even cabinet ministers are acknowledging that fact. All the talk from Washington about not telling the Pakistanis was just a cover to let them ‘save face’.
Rehman Malik, in particular, seems to have no ability to monitor what comes out of his mouth.
kp, render, and all the other knowledgeable commenters, I joined a news group on facebook called asia despatch and I find myself wishing some of you guys were on there so that I am not the only one arguing with these people. Here is a recent example of a recent argument I got into with someone supporting child suicide bombers:
Taha Bin Sohail” Steve… I don’t know what is your religion exactly but I think the story of David and Golaith is clearly given in quran and I suppose it is also given in bible and torah. Wasn’t david a small boy when he attaked Gollaith with stones. Why was he chosen for a one on one fight? Why don’t the jews and christians criticize the this act. The worst enemy of our prophet muhammad sallallah u alaihe wassalam was also broght down by two very young boys (Muaaz and Ma’uz). So what is your point in saying that taliban use young boys. If you guys are afraid of loosing your kids then it is your weakness. This is the strength of taliban. Similarly we can say that US is so afraid to fight head on with taliban that it always uses its fighter planes from high above. Bombs thrown from such heights always are inaccurate and target innocents and some times their own soldiers (as shown in NAT GEO Documentary on Qala Jangi through live images). I hope I have made my point.”
I don’t have the time and military knowledge to respond to some of these people. I hope one of you guys can join me.
steve m, isn’t engaging with these guys like arguing with a drunkard?
For God’s sake, what is the point?
Steve M.: I am no military or biblical expert but my agrument would be this.
Goliath I believe felt he had God behind him and it was not some fanatical spiritual leader who was convincing him to go blow himself up. He was not suicidal. He went in knowing that he would win with God beside him.
I do not know the Quran and do therefore do not know the story regarding the two young boys but was their plan to blow themselves up to kill the enemy of Allah. I do not think so.
Now for the question regarding bombing of civilians. Strategic bombings are meant to destroy a given target with hopefully no civilian casualties. Suicide bombers in most cases since they are not going after the direct enemy are to scare (terrorize) the public to obey.
When civilians are killed during a military operation it occurs as an accident. While as a suicide bomber it is intentional. I believe in Afghanistan the statistics showed that 76% of civilian deaths were caused by the terrorist. How many of those were accidental?
I am sure these are talking points that they have heard from their radical imams.
@kp, my sense is that the ISI is in it both for the money (as Blert stated) and for nationalist/Islamist/hegemonic reasons. I don’t believe for a moment that they consider India an existential threat because they wouldn’t be baiting the Indian elephant thus if they feared its retaliation. Instead, they view India as a weak prey that can be broken up internally and an opportunity to extend Pakistani Punjabi domination east just as they seek to do in the west (Afghanistan).
You are also too charitable in crediting them with owning the pack of vicious ‘pit bulls’. As the events in Mumbai showed, they ARE the alpha dogs of the pack. They were right there directing the massacres, to the extent that they repeatedly asked to hear the victims being slaughtered over the phone. Some members of the pack may have broken off and maybe challenging their leadership and/or aspiring a global agenda, but for now the ISI/military remains fully in charge of the state terror apparatus and its regional goals.
As for their nukes, they are certainly not there to deter China who gave it to them in the first place. They were initially conceived as a shield behind which they could inflict terrorism on India with impunity. Now they are being rapidly expanded to deter the US from any attempt to denuclearize them, so that they can continue their nuclear brinkmanship against India.
If the relationship with the US deteriorates further, they could conceivably ally more closely with China and even host Chinese ICBMs aimed at the West to deter any attacks. This is not as farfetched as it once may have appeared, going by reports of what the Pakistanis already advised the Afghans during a recent government visit, and from the fallout of the bin Laden raid.
What their nukes won’t do is to protect them from internal insurgencies. Other than the Punjabis, the Sindhis and Baluchis and Pashtuns do not have an affinity for their hegemonic Islamist mindset, and wouldn’t wish to be roped into a suicidal pact against the free world. Starved of Western funds and arms, the Punjabi army will find it difficult to subjugate their rebellious domains. And Chinese weaponry would be a poor substitute for Western technology provided to the rebels.
At the worst it would be a stalemate that preoccupies and distracts the ISI from carrying out their outlaw agenda. At the best it may allow quasi-democratic societies to flourish from the Arabian sea to Afghanistan and beyond (central Asia), and provide an eventual opportunity to denuclearize Punjab; which would be hard pressed to afford a nuclear stockpile greater than that of France or of Great Britain. Economic development in the former regions of Pakistan may even encourage the Punjabis to finally reorient their militaristic dead-end priorities and reject their outlaw status to rejoin the other democracies in the region.
Steve M – The below is for you. Feel free to cut-n-paste over to FB…in full.
I’m on FB, under my real name, and will not be joining any such group. But I will see…
===
Of course the story of David vs Goliath is found in the Old Testament. David, son of Jesse, after all was became a Jewish king of Israel. While he was a youth at the time of his epic battle with Goliath, he was no child or small boy, he was already a seasoned warrior, fighting alongside his older brothers, and had been chosen as Saul’s shield bearer (not a job for small children in pre-biblical days) before his fight with Goliath. He was not
I think the best reason to kill OBL rather than capture would be the endless hostage taking that innocent westerners would have endured for years since the US, rightly so, would never have released him to save Joe Bloggs from London or Paris. Thank you America.
It’s now open season on the CIA in Pakistan: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/10/world/asia/10pakistan.html?_r=1
Perhaps Gen. Petraeus at the CIA’s helm is a good move after all; provided that his replacement in the field is as astute and able a warrior as he is, and that he has the full support of the civilians in the administration. These are going to be difficult times in AfPak.
LG John Allen USMC is a Marines Marine. I have that on extremely good authority from a US Marine.
That part will not be the problem, rest assured.
RIFLE
MEN,
R