The Taliban have attacked another NATO fuel convoy inside Pakistan; meanwhile, the northern border crossing in Khyber remains closed in protest of a US military cross-border strike from Afghanistan.
Taliban fighters opened fire on a group of fuel tankers yesterday in the town of Mithri in Baluchistan province. Police said 27 fuel tankers were set ablaze. The Taliban attack was unopposed by Pakistani security forces.
The Taliban maintain a strong presence along the border regions in Baluchistan. The Movement of the Taliban in Baluchistan is a shadowy organization of which little is publicly known. The group supports operations against Afghan and Coalition forces, and operates without any restraint from the Pakistani military or government.
Over the past year, the Movement of the Taliban in Baluchistan and allied groups have stepped up attacks against NATO convoys near the Baluchistan cities of Kuzdar, Kalat, Mastung, and Mach, all along the road to Quetta before passing through the Chaman border crossing. Attacks are reported on a near-daily basis.
The torching of the trucks in Mithri is the fifth major attack on NATO’s supply convoys since Pakistan shut down NATO’s supply line through the Khyber Pass on Sept. 30. More than 150 NATO fuel and container trucks have been destroyed in the five attacks.
On Oct. 6, the Taliban took credit for attacks in Quetta and Nowshera, which destroyed 60 trucks. On Oct. 3, three people were killed and 28 tankers burned in the aftermath of a Taliban attack on a convoy near Islamabad. And on Oct. 1, the Taliban torched 36 fuel tankers in an attack outside Shikarpur in Sindh province. The Taliban took credit for each of the attacks, and said the Shikarpur attack was carried out by a group based in Sindh known as the Siyara Group.
The Pakistani government indicated it would announce the reopening of the route in Khyber today, after numerous US officials, including ISAF commander General David Petraeus, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen, and Ambassador Anne Patterson apologized for a cross-border incident that led to the death of two Pakistan Frontier Corps troops in Kurram. US troops attacked a Frontier Corps outpost after taking fire while pursuing Haqqani Network fighters across the border.
Some US officials told The Long War Journal that they believed the Pakistani military either facilitated or turned a blind eye to Taliban attacks on NATO’s convoys to punish the US for carrying out cross-border raids. The officials also said the Pakistani military wants to deflect building Western pressure on Pakistan to carry out military operations in the Taliban and al Qaeda havens in North Waziristan. [See LWJ report, Taliban torch 35 more NATO tankers in Pakistan, for more information.]
22 Comments
I think its time we retaliate for the amount of supplies destroyed by the Pakistan Army ooops…sorry, the Taliban. I would like to invite suggestions from commenters and Bill Roggio also about the possible alternatives…
I suggest crashing Pakistan’s entire internet and electronic grid for a couple of days and bombarding them with stutnex worms. Black off their industrial, military and nuclear command and control networks. That will serve as a great warning and it has good deniability factor.
Another suggestion could be to use NATO’s covert intelligence teams operating deep inside Pakistan (I am sure there are such teams – ala ‘Inglorius Basterds’) to eliminate a high profile figure, either in the ISI or Military or LeT. That will warn them that we are close to their necks and can strangle them if they don’t behave.
Third suggestion would be to interationally declare support for India’s claim on Pakistan Occupied Kashmir and sell them some high tech weaponry for a discount.
I believe these actions can really rattle the Pakistanis from their arrogance of invincibility!! (which is increasing day by day due to inaction of NATO against crimes of Pakistan)
I think the Pakistani’s are playing a dangerous game and that they’re inaction will eventually result in their doom.
Apologize to the Pakis and everything’s ok? Bill, what is really going on here? Guess some ISI men got killed in the friendly fire incident?
Who is giving them the green light to attack the convoys all of a sudden?
Tim,
Hamid Gul would be my choice for asassination!
@Tim: sorry to break the party, but its not a one way street.
US and Pak both need each other badly right now. Pak for aid and the US for a face-saving formula in Afghanistan where it can show stability before starting withdrawal in mid-2011. Otherwise, Kabul and Kandahar are going to go the way Saigon went after US withdrawal.
NATO hasnt covered itself in glory or popularity by killing soldiers across the border. Unfortunately, you cant treat the Pakistan government like a puppet – the way you treated the Ethiopian one
This is getting tiresome. Time to take up India’s offer to provide bases and logistics made shortly after 9-11. This, more than any U.S. threat to bomb Pakistan back to stone-age, got the Pakistani military to make an immediate u-turn; albeit a double-faced one. But then this shouldn’t surprise anyone who paid careful attention to Musharraf’s invoking of the Treaty of Hudaibaya during the about-face. I wonder how difficult/expensive it would be to airlift supplies into Afghanistan from an airbase in northern India after secure road transport from an Indian sea port? Any increase in cost should be offset by no losses from attacks on conveys in India. In addition to cementing stronger defense ties with India, there is the added benefit of Pakistan inevitably bending-over-backwards to get back into our good graces. You can bet that the Pakistani supply routes would suddenly become infinitely more secure. It could be a win-win strategy!
@ BraddS, its doubtful ISI agents got killed at the border. Here is one theory from RAND’s Christine Fair: http://afpak.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/10/08/the_real_question_about_pakistans_border_closure
TL;DR All the Pakistani militants and contractors want to renegotiate prices, and this is part of that strategy.
Our fuel payments are billable only upon good delivery all the way to Afghanistan. So Pakistan is picking up the tab financially for these convoy-be-ques.
However, ISAF does need the fuel, so operational freedom is reduced by Pakistani petulance.
The ‘kick’ from Islamabad is due to the full realization that any romp around the FATA ( Federally Abandoned Tribal Anarchy ) would surely turn up more embarrassing witnesses and intel.
Logically, the FATA belong to Kabul and the Durand line is bogus. THAT’S the depth Islamabad is worried about.
This CIA produced map gives you some idea of the ethnic border:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pashtunistan
If NATO were to recognize Kabul’s claims, China would probably do so, too. China has good relations with Kabul and would love to import what Kabul has on offer: minerals and natural gas. Further, Caspian Sea oil now could transit directly to the Indian Ocean or dogleg to China with one less party to pay.
Ultimately, Islamabad is in a tight box. She’s suffered horrific damage to her harvest. If she gets too smart with ISI and shoots up Europe trade embargoes must result. If she gets to smart with the ISAF the USN can blockade her. She’s walled in by India, Afghanistan, Baluchistan and the Sea. Only a sliver of transit reaches China. A couple of landslides would do that in.
So any attempt to really put the bite on the ISAF would blow up in Islamabad’s face — and everyone sees it. Scaring New Delhi with atomics is one thing. Scaring the USN is another.
Of course, without American money, Islamabad is instantly broke. That’s no joke. She can’t borrow in the money markets without IMF support as it is.
Rather than a ‘Saigon’ the ISAF would engage in a ‘katabasis’ right through Baluchistan. The locals would love that: Baluchis have been trying to break away from Islamabad since day one.
And then there’s the Russian connection. We are already getting supplies across the northern frontier of Afghanistan. That’s why the Taliban is surging into the zone of the Northern Alliance. The ISI wants to be in the position to threaten those supplies, too.
Remember the German fuel transporters that were captured by the Taliban a while back?
Charu: Good point about Hudaibaya. I had mentioned the following on two posts in the past two days:
I repeat my yesterday’s recommendation to have Obama ask India during his Nov 5 visit to create an air bridge from forward air bases in India to Afghanistan, and compensate the additional cost by procuring gasoline locally from Jamnagar’s oil refinery (world’s largest), instead of being shipped from Diego Garcia or elsewhere, and food supplies from US MNCs and local firms in India. The Pakistan air force dare not shoot down our C130’s.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_oil_refineries
Rumgun is right that Pakistan needs US to prevent an
economic collapse but wrong that US needs Pakistan. But even US aid can only delay the
inevitable economic collapse of Pakistan, not prevent it. When Pakistan pretended to listen, then US pretended that it needs Pakistan. If Pakistan is working against US interests, then I am not so sure why this ‘key ally’ is needed. Looks like both sides are taking their gloves off.
When is next interest payment coming due for Pakistan?
Perhaps we ought to “pair” the burning of the fuel shipments on the closed borders, with the sudden seeming improvement in successful, or perhaps successful, hits by the drones in the last week or so.
Sometimes things are not what they seem, they are diversions. Some Taliban and various criminal Gangster outfits seem to be making hits on nearly empty fuel tanks, lots of sparks and fire — at the same time, the drones are making seeming repeated hits. A US General and Ambassador say words, but the successful drone strikes seemingly continue.
I think there might just be a little strategy being played out here, which you don’t see if your first response is to hit with the wrong tool.
@Ramgun
My idea is to not treat the Pakistan Army as a puppet, but as an ENEMY! Pure and simple.
@Charu
Sorry, but the Indian government at present is too leaned towards pleasing the minorities and it would not want to offer overt support to the NATO miliary machine. A more better idea would be to diplomatically assist India on Kashmir in international forums and in return accessing the huge intelligence and experience that they possess on Pakistan’s Jihadi connections (which has been thoroughly underestimated by western armies uptill now – India was the only country constantly warning NATO of Pakistan’s double-dealing, right from the beginning of the war – and NATO ignored these warnings at its own peril!).
@Paul
I agree! Scum like Hamid Gul should have been dispatched off long ago….
@sara
Don’t tell me you still believe that the ISI is actually working for NATO and this arrogance of the Pak Army is an act it is putting up to help NATO…Wake up and face reality, my friend.
The increased drone hits are most probably the result of ‘Don’t Care’ attitude of NATO towards sensitivities of ISI. Earlier Nato had intelligence on many high profile Jihadis in Pakistan, but because they were on the payroll of ISI these targets were not to be touched! Even if they openly killed NATO soldiers…but now NATO seems to have had enough of double-dealing of ISI and is going ahead with kills regardless of ISI protests, and hence more high profile targets are eliminated, while at the same time ISI is retaliating by burning supplies in Pakistan territory…logical isn’t it?
Linked by bill on the side bar, the crossing will open on Monday, and Pakistan considers imposing tax on Nato supply trucks although the ‘road tax’ proposed is a tiny fraction of the aid given or the cost of the shipping to the U.S.. I’d say it’s largely for internal consumption, but it might help the local politics to explicitly tax the trucks, and reduce the direct aid payments by the same amount.
The Dawn articles also say “some 500 trucks filled from Pakistani refineries go to Afghanistan on a daily basis” and “Some 2,500 to 3,000 trucks bringing supplies to US or other Nato troops in Afghanistan are on Pakistan’s roads at any given time” so losing 150 is noticible hut a long way from a severe impact. The 10 day stop has more impact over a 6 month time frame.
@Davidp
“…so losing 150 is noticible but a long way from a severe impact”
With countries like Pakistan, it always begins with a trickle…but it steadily grows to a stream and then a full blown river in full spate! It takes advantage of the inaction of its enemy to institutionalize its terror…thats what has happened with India. In Kashmir, it started with a few terrorists years back…when India and the world did not respond strongly, it is now sending dozens or even hundreds of murderous jihadis over the border…INSTITUTIONALIZATION OF TERROR! It has made the world believe that this is genuine expression of frustration of anger against India (my foot!)
If we do not respond in some strong measure to these truck burnings by the Pakistan Army, they will instutionalize blackmail of NATO and then we would have to live with its tantrums (which will steadily become more aggressive). Is that what you want or would you like to nip it in the bud?
One wonders if strains within the U.S. State Department aren’t exacerbating this problem. Jed Babbin writes of increasing distrust and disrespect between Karzai/Zadari and key members of the Obama diplomatic corps.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2010/10/08/wheres_hillary_107495.html
@blert, peeling off Sindh and Baluchistan as independent entities would indeed create a friendly sea corridor for Afghanistan, and should be seriously considered as a punishment for Pakistani Punjabi intransigence and duplicity. However, I wouldn’t be too sanguine about China accepting this reordering of colonial borders. The Chinese view the US as standing in their way to becoming the world’s dominant power, and relish us getting bogged down in Afghanistan. Their best ally in the region is Pakistan’s (Punjabi) military and they would strongly resist any change to the status quo; especially a loss to their considerable investment in Gwadar. If we can resolve Afghanistan in the next several years, we will surely need to turn our attention to China who is already carrying out joint military exercises with Turkey, ostensibly our NATO ally. This is Huntington’s prophesy coming to fruition; the alliance between the Chinese and Islamic civilizations against the forces of liberty, equality and democracy.
Nice article, Arnefufkin. I think the hawks are doing more damage than help to US’s objectives in Afghanistan / Pakistan. Lack of diplomatic maneouvreing isnt helping.
US doesn’t have the appetite to continue fighting in this region much longer. Even if recent wars haven’t reduced its arrogance over the superiority of military might, they have certainly exposed the limitations of the same. The US may have the military ability to fight insurgents for 2 more decades, but it certainly has no political will to do so. It is a question of when it departs, not if. Thus, it is only looking to avoid a Saigon / Najibullah like fate for Kabul when it departs. So, with all their faults, the Pakistan army and Karzai are the only two ‘allies’ that can be enlisted in holding this area together against specifically anti-US terrorists.
Both these allies are corrupt and obviously have their own agendas. But there is no alternative. The enemy today is not a regime that can be bombed into submission. It is an ideology; that must be continually contained by the West – with minimal budget and loss of life. This may take years and decades.
Many people here seem to overestimate India’s eagerness to step in and fight. India may have been keen in 2001. But today, I think we are perfectly happy to watch this battle from the sidelines. Without losing a single soldier or Rupee, we are having our objectives met – Taliban is fighting with its back to the wall, our other enemy the Pak army is fighting (what we consider) itself, sectarian strife is distracting Pakistan from India, and Pashtun / Baloch separatism are taking their toll on Punjabi domination. Kashmir infiltration is, unsurprisingly, at an all time low. In this situation, why will we want to enter into a battle and end up uniting Pakistan’s and Afghanistan’s factions against us?
A stupid question.
Why are the convoys not ordered to just turn around and head south whenever the Khyber pass is closed?
This would surely avoid the convoys being sitting ducks for terrorists to hit?
@ramgun, there appears to be a disconnect in your thesis. If the US doesn’t have the will to prevail in Afghanistan and will eventually withdraw, how would this meet India’s long-term needs? It would be extremely short-sighted, and possibly disastrous down the road, for India not to join the battle in one form or the other. A “victory” for Pakistan’s proxies, the Taliban, against a second super-power will inevitably lead to greater assaults on India from without and from within, and would pave the way for the upcoming super-power, China. Pax americana is infinitely better for secular democracies like India than pax sinica!
While I don’t believe that India actively fighting in Afghanistan would be currently useful anymore than Israel joining the war would, as it would only inflame global Islamic fanaticism at this stage, India could assist the effort by providing bases and supply routes to NATO (if they are not already doing so). In addition, an expansion in aid and training to the Afghan army (and the groups comprising the former Northern Alliance) could be undertaken. There are ways in which India can support NATO without putting troops on the ground at this point, because NATO’s failure would certainly cost India a lot more. And India should be prepared to enter militarily in alliance with NATO when the situation warrants it; for example to help stabilize an independent Sindh and Baluchistan.
Charu a
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@ramgun, there appears to be a disconnect in your thesis. If the US doesn’t have the will to prevail in Afghanistan and will eventually withdraw, how would this meet India’s long-term needs? It would be extremely short-sighted, and possibly disastrous down the road, for India not to join the battle in one form or the other. A “victory” for Pakistan’s proxies, the Taliban, against a second super-power will inevitably lead to greater assaults on India from without and from within, and would pave the way for the upcoming super-power, China. Pax americana is infinitely better for secular democracies like India than pax sinica!
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The Pakistani Army is better armed than the Taliban and already plots for ways to
do damage to India. The Pakistani Army isn’t able to control all extremist religious factions and will have to fight off accusations by the Taliban of being too Westernized once the Taliban have maximized their gains in Afghanistan. The desire for a unified Pashtun grouping that would transcend the Durand Line.
Continued instability in Pakistan will restrain foreign investment in Pakistan and prevent any significant economic growth.
India has a much more hardened border with Pakistan than exists between Afghanistan
and Pakistan and the Indian Army has much higher concentrations of troops in that border area than ISAF has in the Pakistan – Afghanistan border area.
Yes, the religious militants – irregulars will likely increase attempts to penetrate the Pakistan – Indian border, but India is prepared for those events.
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While I don’t believe that India actively fighting in Afghanistan would be currently useful anymore than Israel joining the war would, as it would only inflame global Islamic fanaticism at this stage, India could assist the effort by providing bases and supply routes to NATO (if they are not already doing so). In addition, an expansion in aid and training to the Afghan army (and the groups comprising the former Northern Alliance) could be undertaken. There are ways in which India can support NATO without putting troops on the ground at this point, because NATO’s failure would certainly cost India a lot more. And India should be prepared to enter militarily in alliance with NATO when the situation warrants it; for example to help stabilize an independent Sindh and Baluchistan.
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India lacks a border with Afghanistan, so the supply route idea isn’t possible.
Pashtuns aren’t fond of the Northern Alliance because of the ethnic differences, so using them to subdue the Pashtun militants in Eastern & Southern Afghanistan is going to be difficult.
Using the Indian army (or even NATAO – ISAF) in operations in Pakistan to separate and stabilize a breakaway Balochistan and Sindh will be quite messy. The Punjabi dominated Pakistani Army won’t part willing with their Empire
and will strongly resist.
If Balochistan and the Sindh are able to successfully breakaway from the Punjabis, then shouldn’t they be able to stabilize themselves internally?
Even though it might be the Right Thing To Do, helping Balochistan and the Sindh
to escape Punjabi oppression is something that Kafirs should resist doing.
I don’t recall the OIC being active and intervening to stop the bloodletting in Bangladesh (East Pakistan) approximately four decades ago and they will likely stay on the sidelines again even if the bloodletting in Pakistan worsens.
patrick…
The convoys were heading for the southern — un-blocked — entry into Afghanistan.
The attackers are NOT terrorists. In this case, they are merely unlawful combatants.
Terrorists hijack planes and demand media attention and such.
These guys are just low level shooters, empowered by the Pakistani ISI.
So this was a state sponsored attack.
Notably, no security by police or army is to be provided…
Per: Islamabad.
This is photo-theatre: Pakistan is paying for the loses.
No delivery = no payment.
Only clueless drivers are being murdered, by their elites.
The whole project is to show the ISAF how tough Islamabad can be.
The fact that the USN an economically destroy Pakistan without strain is a reality that must be denied.
Atomic weapon use in this context is absurd — for everyone.