The Pakistani Taliban has called the 10-week-old truce with the military “worthless” after the government launched an operation in the northern district of Dir.
The military launched the operation in Dir yesterday with the deployment of members of the Frontier Corps in a region that hosts the home town of radical cleric Sufi Mohammad.
The Pakistani military is claiming success in the Dir operation, reporting that 46 Taliban fighters and two Taliban commanders, and only one soldier were killed during fighting over the past two days. The military said a Taliban leader named Maulana Shahid and four of his aides were among those killed during the fighting. The reports could not be confirmed.
One Frontier Corps trooper was killed and two more were wounded after the Taliban ambushed a convoy moving through Dir. Taliban fighters also captured a major and his driver.
The Dir operation was launched by the poorly armed and trained paramilitary Frontier Corps. Units from the Chitral and Dir Scouts are being reinforced by local police. Army helicopter gunships and artillery are targeting Taliban camps. But as in past military operations in the northwest, the civilian population has borne the brunt of the devastation as the military pounds population centers in an attempt to minimize military casualties.
The regular Pakistani Army is sitting out the fight in Dir, just as it has in the majority of the operations in Pakistan’s northwest.
“The Army leadership and General Kiyani [the Chief of Army Staff] in particular fear that battling the Taliban will split the officer corps and the rank and file,” a senior US military intelligence official told The Long War Journal. “There is significant support or sympathizers in the military for the Taliban and other Pakistani jihadi organizations. A full on fight [with the Taliban] might force them to take sides.”
The government signed a peace agreement, known as the Malakand Accord, with Sufi in mid-February. The agreement ended military operations in Swat and permitted the imposition of Islamic law in the districts of Malakand, Swat, Shangla, Buner, Dir, Chitral, and Kohistan.
In past operations in Waziristan, Khyber, Peshawar, Mohmand, Arakzai, Kohat, Swat, Bajaur, and elsewhere, the military conducted short term operations and claimed success. But the Taliban would pull back from contested areas after heavy fighting and bleed back into the regions after the military withdrew.
The government is describing the Dir operation as a success. Interior Minister Rehman Malik said the government is now in full control of Dir and “will not tolerate” a Taliban presence. But the military conducted the operation in only a small region in Dir.
While the military is describing the action in Dir as a sustained operation, Pakistani government officials are claiming there is no military operation underway, and that actions are targeting specific “militants.”
The Dir operation takes place as US officials are placing enormous pressure on the Pakistani government to tackle the Taliban sanctuaries that have blossomed in the northwest.
Taliban suspend talks with government
The Taliban brushed off government claims that the Dir operation was limited and said that it was suspending peace talks with the government.
“We are suspending talks with the government until the military operation in Dir is halted,” Ameer Izzat, a spokesman for Sufi Mohammad told Dawn. “Our council of leaders met on Sunday night and decided to suspend peace negotiations with the government in [the] Northwest Frontier Province.”
The Taliban claim the Sharia deal is still in effect. “We, however, still adhere to the February deal,” Izzat said.
At the same time, Muslim Khan, the Taliban spokesman for Swat’s Mullah Fazlullah, called the Malakand Accord “worthless” and threatened to widen operations in Pakistan.
“The more they carry out operations the more we will expand across Pakistan,” Khan said.
The Swat Taliban defeated the military three separate times since the fall of 2007 and have expanded Taliban control into Buner, Shangla, and Dir during recent operations.
The recent moves by the Taliban have put the local governments in Islamabad and Haripur on high alert. Islamabad’s deputy commissioner has deployed additional paramilitary Rangers to the hills just north of the city to block a potential advance, while security forces have upped the contingent at the strategic Tarbela Dam.
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And of course the Taliban move further north. Soon they will move into the otherwise peaceful Chitral (local newspaper Chitral News claims the Taliban do not have significant presence there, or at least don’t seem to be actively enforcing Sharia just yet) which has an even longer border with Afghanistan, whereas Dir’s border is mostly with the tribal areas.
The Army better watch out. If Balochistan goes up in flames (and Dawn coverage suggests it slowly is) then the Army will act as it has done in the past. I wonder if the sheer hypocracy in effectiveness in the two provinces will get them called out on their shit.
“The Army leadership and General Kiyani [the Chief of Army Staff] in particular fear that battling the Taliban will split the officer corps and the rank and file,” a senior US military intelligence official told The Long War Journal. “There is significant support or sympathizes in the military for the Taliban and other Pakistani jihadi organizations. A full on fight [with the Taliban] might force them to take sides.”
Just what we have known all along. The Army supports the Taliban. Althought it says here they are split, the fact they won’t fight allows the Taliban space to operate and in effect, gives them support.
Having the military split can cause huge problems such as the rise of the Taliban shows.
Also, can anyone say Coup?
I wonder if the military can really defend Pakistan conventionally or are they relying on Nukes for defense? They seem fractured, disjointed, undisciplined, cowardly, and poorly trained. Of course, so does India’s military. I think Pakistan would fall quickly if attacked. The Taliban joining them in the fight might not be the best idea either. Who would be in command? And the Nuke defense strategy is crazy. What is that? I’m going down so I’m going to take you with me?
“I wonder if the military can really defend Pakistan conventionally or are they relying on Nukes for defense? They seem fractured, disjointed, undisciplined, cowardly, and poorly trained. Of course, so does India’s military.”
With all due respect, Mr.T you dont know much about the Indian military – every time there has been a conventional war with Pakistan, we have won.
The last time there was an unconventional war (with Musharaff planning and leading the war for the other side)in Kargil, we won that as well.
The insurgency fostered in Kashmir by Pakistan has been largely curtailed as well – so the Indian military has pretty good experience with COIN as well.
How ever, if you used those exact same adjectives to describe most politicians on both the Indian and Pakistani side, you would be right on.
Hmm.. . I think I have seen this movie before.
Step 1 : The Pak military fights the Taliban -or atleast put up a front that they are fighting.
Step 2 : After a few months, they sign “peace agreements” with the Taliban in exchange of Sharia laws for Taliban territory.
Step 3: the US becomes concerned about the peace agreements and coaxes the Paki military to act.
Step 4: The military now has to prove that it is “doing something” and launches strikes against the Taliban resulting in high civilian collateral. They either cannot do a classic COIN or dont want to do one or are hamstrung by the terrain etc…
Step 5: The Taliban vows to get revenge and fight back. It is as belligerent as ever, goes on suicide bombing missions and tries and succeeds in capturing more territory.
Step 6 : The Pak military goes back to step 1.
I feel sorry for all the civilians caught in the cross fire and want none of this
NS,
You can make this more accurate by replacing references to ‘military’ with ‘Frontier Corps’ and adding a couple of steps between 2 and 3.
Step 2a: Frontier Corps withdraws from contested area.
Step 2b: Taliban returns and consolidates control of contested area.
My2Cents,
Thanks for the suggestions ! The whole consolidation phase has slipped my mind because it looks like they are no longer challenged -and hence dont need to play the cat and mouse game any more.
I just dont know how this is all going to end.
Great job by Pak FC. Lower Dir being passage to Upper Dir, Chitral and Bajaur, lawlessness and kidnappings there was very troublesome. Militants there were reportedly waiting for ‘weather to improve’ to vacate the place, against threats by Upper Dir tribes. Eliminated.
I’m more worried about a coup when Kiyani retires in a few years, as is mandated by law. Because alot of other generals will be retiring too from now til then, and these guys are the last generation of soldiers who fought in the big wars. The guys coming in to replace them would have had for experience at most in Kargil…and this current war against the Taliban. My worry being that during the changeover, the Taliban get one of their men’s foot in the door so to speak. When that happens, we will either see a full blown coup or a mutiny.
As for Pakistani military capability, they have never actually won a war as an independant fighting force. Each time, it was only out of India’s respect for the UN calling ceasefire that Pakistan even still exists. The nukes are by self-admission the only thing keeping everyone else from underestimating the Pakistani military and because they are the only institution keeping the state together, by association that arsenal is all that keeps the federation from disintigrating or being invaded (as India admited a few months back).
I’m beginning to wonder if the Pakistani Army bluffs about its strength to keep the Indians on their toes. Do they have the 600,000 they say they do?
Were it not for the nukes, India could take Pakistan any time it liked. 600,000 Pakistani soldiers doesn’t mean much if a quarter of them are untrained kids with rifles, helmets and little else. India has total air superiority, big armor superiority, much of Pakistan’s pretty flat and India’s armored thrust would cut it in half in a few days. This is why the ISI were looking to Afghanistan for ‘strategic depth’ in the first place.
Why India doesn’t want to do it is due to domestic politics. What does India do if it invades Pakistan, and the Pakistani army collapses and surrenders? In 1971, the Indian Army actually reached Dhaka, and could conceivably have reclaimed East Pakistan and reabsorbed it into a reunified Bengal. But India’s politicians looked dimly on the idea of reabsorbing that many Muslims and giving them votes, it would change the balance of Indian political power. So they left, and Bangladesh was born.
Same deal here. Do they occupy Pakistan, and try and rebuild it like America did with Iraq? Iraq cost America hugely, and India’s still poor, and Pakistan is ten times the job. And then what… Pakistan is still Pakistan, still founded on hostility to India, and will simply reconstitute in its hostility to India, start more wars, back to square one.
India’s better option is to reabsorb and thus secularise Pakistan, and hope that it becomes ‘Indian’ again after a generation or so… but the cost in money and terrorism in the meantime would be enormous. And, 170 million Pakistanis get the vote in India, there’s suddenly a huge Muslim block that could destabilise the country, and may well vote for independence again anyhow.
It’s a bad set of options for a poor country that’s finally starting to get its act together, sees great power status on its horizon, and doesn’t need this kind of mess right now.
About Pakistan’s nuclear weapons – some “sources” claim that Pakistan were given 12 nukes by China and 6 of them were used in the “tit of tat” explosions that India did.
What gives credence is the fact that overflying US sniffer spy planes picked up distinct plutonium signatures in these blasts. And Pakistan at that time, did not have enough plutonium (as it was known as uranium enriched bomb) to make a nuke from plutonium.
And during Kargil, it seems the Chinese took back the nukes under them and under pressure from presumably USA.
If Pakistan actually breaks up and asks the U.S. for help (assuming the legitimate Pak gov formally asks the world for assistance), what do we do?
It would add severely in the negative for us if we fail to help them, last year we failed Georgia. This isn’t only about the nukes, or regional strategy. The outcome and our behaviour will also affect how we are perceived as an ally, and how other countries judge U.S. power.
So, what do we do with Pakistan?
If Pakistan actually breaks up and asks the U.S. for help (assuming the legitimate Pak gov formally asks the world for assistance), what do we do?
It would add severely in the negative for us if we fail to help them, last year we failed Georgia. This isn’t only about the nukes, or regional strategy. The outcome and our behaviour will also affect how we are perceived as an ally, and how other countries judge U.S. power.
So, what do we do with Pakistan?
Breaks up in which way?
Militant Islam takeover?
Baloch Liberation?
Sindh Liberation?
NWFP and FATA form an independent Pashtun country?
Georgia had outisde intervention from Russia while Pakistan faces collapse – fracture scenarios caused by internal pressures. There is a clear distinction between the two situations.
Likely more in common with the Yugoslavia situation in recent decades than the very recent Georgia scenario.
It would very difficult to reassemble a fractured Pakistan.
bard207
I agree with you at Georgia and Pakistan are two very different situation. I was talking more about how our response to the current situation in Pak will be judged by others, allies and adversaries. Pak has been an “Ally” against terrorism since 9/11 and if they ask us for help, are we in a position to deny? Even if we can claim that they brought this on themselves by not listening. What will it say about us if we let Pak balkanize?
Does anyone have any idea how we can stand up the Pakis effectively? We have to do that in order to win in Afghanistan.
Bill stated that, “The Dir operation was launched by the poorly armed and trained paramilitary Frontier Corps. Units from the Chitral and Dir Scouts are being reinforced by local police. Army helicopter gunships and artillery are targeting Taliban camps. But as in past military operations in the northwest, the civilian population has borne the brunt of the devastation as the military pounds population centers in an attempt to minimize military casualties.
The regular Pakistani Army is sitting out the fight in Dir, just as it has in the majority of the operations in Pakistan’s northwest.”
This is just what I have always thought, the Pakistanis send in “expendable” and inexperienced Rangers or paramilitary units to put up a token resistance, just to show that they’re doing something. Then, when they get the hell kicked out of them, maybe the Pakistani Army will do something about it. But, according to this report, it doesn’t look like the Army is going to do anything now because it is afraid of starting a Civil War if it attacks the Taliban in force. Friends, this is Iran and the Shah all over again. If the army is now openly admitting that it can’t fight the Taliban because it is afraid of a civil war within its ranks, then they are already finished. The Taliban will probably take over the whole country by the end of the year, if not sooner if they decide to force the issue. How much longer, though, before the Pakistanis can’t even muster Rangers or paramilitary units to take on the Taliban? After all, how anxious will these units be to take on the Taliban once they realize they will no longer get any support from the Army? We are dealing with months here before this whole country falls apart.
If Pakistan breaks up it will NOT come back together, regardless of what anyone else wants. Its literally being held reasonably together by the Pakistani military. Hell, the Baloch never even wanted to join the federation in the first place, they were annexed. If Pakistan breaks up, you will have at the very least, two independant states. More likely, it would do a Yugoslavia (which it resembles more and more every day) and balkanize along the provincial lines.
India won’t take on all of Pakistan. Too expensive and too big and local politics as someone else mentioned.
But they WILL take what they can get, which would be the rest of Kashmir (fairly quickly too lest the Chinese move in) and perhaps Sindh, which is more moderate and follows the Sufi tradition of Islam more than most in the country. And frankly getting what you always wanted AND the economic/largest population center/primary port of the enemy country is good enough. And even if Sindh is off the cards, at the very least it would be a helpful ally to India and the West.
The Thunder Run has linked to this post in the blog post From the Front: 04/28/2009 News and Personal dispatches from the front and the home front.
Libertyship, IMHO the Taliban could take control of Pakistan any time they wish. It is more a matter of logistics than anything else. They literally don’t have the transportation to get their fighters into the southern regions of Pakistan.
Once they decide, I expect the Taliban to rapidly advance into the capitol area, surrounding it, and having defacto control of Pakistan in short order. It is a disaster of a magnitude unimagined by most, and could happen at any time.
If the Regular Army is going to be a soft lapdog not interested in fighting the militants, then Kiyani should declare it so the next round – sequence of events can occur.
It would save Mullen and Holbrooke the time spent flying to Pakistan and pleading for action.
It would also save Kiyani from the further embarrassment of declaring actions – things that aren’t going to happen.
Thank you Bill I can post today, I finished those journals, sort of. This comes as no surprise. In fact I have wondered myself exactly who this would empower.
In the spirit of Darwin, “Natura non facit saltum,” the money will go on. Someone will have it. Sometimes we empower for the best and other times for the worst.
I prefer no nuclear weapons would pass to India myself, think it was a bad idea that further expressed itself in war. Science has learned it’s lesson but will mankind.
muntasaf al-lail