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Map of Shabaab-controlled regions in southern and central Somalia. The red ovals indicate major cities and towns taken over by Shabaab according to open source reports. The yellow boxes are regions known to be under the general influence and control based on generalized open source reports. |
Just one and a half years after Ethiopian forces ejected the Islamic Courts Union from power in the failed state of Somalia, the country is poised for a takeover by a radical al Qaeda regional group. Shabaab, an al Qaeda-linked terror group, has taken control of most of southern Somalia and portions of the central region, according to press reports from the troubled nation.
Late last week, Shabaab fighters overran the strategic southern port city of Kismayo, Somalia’s second largest city. The capture of Kismayo capped a yearlong campaign by Shabaab to retake territory lost to the Ethiopians in late 2006 and early 2007.
Shabaab, the radical Islamist youth movement formed from the leadership and fighters of the ousted Islamic Courts, has teamed up with the powerful Hawiye clan to attack Ethiopian and Somali security forces. These attacks soon spread north, south, and west of Mogadishu.
By late 2007, Shabaab was reported to be in control of the Hiran province, north of Mogadishu. At the time, a Somali security official stated that 80 percent of the country was outside of government control. Ambushes and improvised explosive device and mortar strikes are a daily occurrence in Mogadishu and the surrounding regions, and attacks against Ethiopian convoys began to increase in frequency and intensity.
During the spring of 2008, much of Bakool and Bay provinces, with exception of Baidoa, the provincial capital of Bay and the seat of parliament, fell to Shabaab. The major cities and towns in these provinces fell under Shabaab control after Somali and Ethiopian forces abandoned the region.
Shabaab then set its sights on Somalia’s south. The area along the Kenyan border has long been a Shabaab safe haven. The US military launched an airstrike at an al Qaeda safe house and training camp run by Hassan Turki in the town of Dobley in southern Somalia, just four miles from the Kenyan border.
The Kenyan border regions have been used to train Shabaab and al Qaeda fighters and to launch attacks into the Shabelle and Jubba provinces. Much of Lower Shabelle and Upper and Lower Jubba are under control of Shabaab.
Shabaab’s campaign in western Somalia has endangered the Ethiopian Army’s long supply lines to Baidoa and Mogadishu. Tens of thousands of Ethiopian forces, along with several thousand African Union peacekeepers from Uganda and Burundi, are deployed in Mogadishu in an effort to quell the insurgency.
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A look at some of the leaders of the Islamic Courts, Shabaab, and al Qaeda in East Africa. Click to view. |
Shabaab’s longtime links to al Qaeda
Shabaab spokesman Sheikh Mukhtar Robow admitted the group is closely aligned to al Qaeda, and seeks to merge with the terror group. “We are negotiating how we can unite into one,” Robow said, according to The Los Angeles Times. “We will take our orders from Sheik Osama bin Laden because we are his students. Al Qaeda is the mother of the holy war in Somalia.”
But the senior leaders of Shabaab have had long links to al Qaeda, and Shabaab and its predecessor have been al Qaeda affiliates in all but name. Hassan Dahir Aweys, Aden Hashi Ayro, and Hassan Turki have trained in al Qaeda camps during the 1990s. Robow admitted this in his interview with The Los Angeles Times. “Most of our leaders were trained in Al Qaeda camps. We get our tactics and guidelines from them,” Robow said. “Many have spent time with Osama bin Laden.”
Turki, Sheikh Yusuf Indha’adde, and Sheikh Mukhtar Robow have appeared on al Qaeda propaganda tapes training and fighting with foreign fighters. Both Turki and Indha’adde admitted to foreign al Qaeda involvement in Somalia in the summer of 2006.
Al Qaeda has helped produced propaganda for the Islamic Courts and Shabaab and has even praised the group in its own propaganda tapes. Osama bin Laden endorsed the Islamic Courts during a speech in 2006. “We will continue, God willing, to fight you and your allies everywhere, in Iraq and Afghanistan and in Somalia and Sudan until we waste all your money and kill your men and you will return to your country in defeat as we defeated you before in Somalia,” bin Laden said.
In November 2001, Aweys, the former leader of the Islamic Courts, was identified by the US Department of State as a Specially Designated Global Terrorists. Aweys participated in the infamous “Black Hawk Down” incident in Mogadishu in 1993.
Ayro, was the leader of Shabaab before he was killed in a US airstrike on May 1, 2008. Turki continues to serve as a military commander and senior trainer for the terror group. Robow is the spokesman for Shabaab as well as a military commander. Indha’adde served as the defense minister for the Islamic Courts prior to its fall in 2007.
Another direct connection is Shabaab and the Islamic Courts sheltering of three senior al Qaeda operatives behind the 1998 attack on the US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania. Fazul Abdullah Mohammed, Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan, and Abu Taha al Sudani have sought shelter with both Shabaab and the Islamic Courts.
Fazul served as the intelligence chief for the Islamic Courts’ and is believed to hold the same portfolio for Shabaab. Sudani is al Qaeda’s leader in northern and eastern Africa. The US has targeted Fazul, Sudani, and Nabhan in multiple strikes in late 2007 and 2008.
For background on the Islamic Courts and their time in power, see The Rise & Fall of Somalia’s Islamic Courts: An Online History.
For more information on the deteriorating security situation, see the Today In entries for Somalia from The Long War Journal.
13 Comments
Its almost back to square one. The Ethopians just couldnt foster reliable allies in Somalia.
They now have a template in the Al-Anbar province of Iraq if they need one…
…Do not spend the bulk of your time protecting your own troops, protect your allies. Create forward bases strategically placed for that purpose. Spend money for reconstruction and make sure your allies benefit. Set up militias and make sure they man their checkpoints. Be more humane than your enemies… knock and search instead of breaking in and humiliating native families. Etc…
The invasion did exactly what I said it would do. The moderate islamists have been discredited and the hard-liners have been vindicated. Where the UIC was questionably tied to world extremists, the ones who will take power now are unquestionably in bed with them.
This failure is exacerbated by the US State Dept. and its insistence on splitting the moderates from the hard-liners, who hold the military muscle. Moderate voices will be entirely sidelined in UIC 2.0, and only the fanatics will have a say.
this is absurd i cant believe this….these goons are defeating a army with a air force and tanks but how? well for one thing they not even winning hearts and minds
Somalia: Islamic Terrorists at it Again
Bill Roggio at The Long War Journal has a piece on Shabab, an al Qaeda-linked terror group operating in southern Somalia.
Late last week, Shabab fighters overran the strategic southern port city of Kismayo, Somalia’s second largest city. The capt…
UIC v.2 may be right-wing Islamists in control of the military muscle and capable of defeating an Ethiopian army brigade with the support of airplane and tanks, but in the long run Islamists who don’t know how to compromise will go the way of Stalin, Hitler and that famous AQL brandname.
After all, what were the Ottomans, Saracens and Moors without the ability to lie convincingly as put forth in the Koran as a legitimate, valuable and respectable tactic?
The winds won’t always be in their backs, it will change someday and they will find themselves without a ready set of bluffs and diplomatic partners.
This is one place where you need to use force. There is a task force on the horn of Africa, and targeting thier leaders, camps, safehouses, should not be hard. Air strikes and the groups that guide them should set them back a good while. Somalia sounds like a free fire zone. Bomb thier camps to dust, target thier leaders. We cannot spare a whole lot of troops here. INTEL is key.
The Thunder Run has linked to this post in the blog post From the Front: 08/26/2008 News and Personal dispatches from the front and the home front.
The Somalis are their own worst enemies. While Shabab seemingly talks a good game, I would be surprised if they had any long term success. As the old Somali saying goes (and please forgive if not exact):
What do you get when you put two Somalis together? – An argument.
Three? – A fight.
Four? – A war.
What you lot are proposing is exactly the stratagem that created and now perpetuates the situation in Somalia where extremists get stronger and moderates are silenced.
This is not a conflict that can be solved with cruise missiles. A vast army of perhaps 20,000 NATO soldiers could pacify Somalia, where 50,000 Ethiopians have failed, but intermittent bombings are worse than useless, they inflame support for the insurgency and undermine the TFG.
The USA has painted itself into a corner on this issue. It cannot negotiate a settlement with al-Shabab because they designated them terrorists. They cannot negotiate with the moderates because they have discredited them, they cannot pull out the Ethiopians because the TFG would fall immediately afterwards granting the UIC victory, and they cannot invade because they lack the troops.
Every way you look at it, defeat.
I agree with James post, the extremists are getting stronger by the day! The USA and the west have alot to answer for
Somalia falls under CENTCOM. Petraeus takes over and will move in his peers to address the issues across the board from Africa to Middle East, Afghanistan and all the “stans.”
Can he work a successful plan again? Only if he has full support. Lets hope he gets it.
The Long War Journal is doing wonderful job,Thank you Write an article on al shabaab, I want to thank you for speaking up bill.we have T Foundation (Terror Free Somalia Foundation ) is dedicated to networking like-minded Somalis opposed to the terrorist insurgency that is plaguing our beloved homeland and informing the international public at large about what is really happening throughout the Horn of Africa region.
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