|
|
|
Red agencies/ districts controlled by the Taliban; purple is defacto control; yellow is under threat. |
While the Taliban attacks the Pakistani military and government institutions in the Northwest Frontier Province, the government sues for peace in the tribal regions. After negotiating failed “peace accords” with the Taliban in North and South Waziristan, Bajaur, and Swat, the Pakistani government has signed a new agreement in the tribal agency of Mohmand. The deal, which was signed by elders of the Halimzai tribes, one of the largest in the agency, stated the tribes “would not allow asylum to foreigners in their areas.” The peace deal does not address the issue of the Pakistani Taliban.
The Daily Times reported on the terms of the peace accord. There is no word on the concessions made by the Pakistani government.
According to the peace agreement, the tribes would neither protect any foreigners nor provide them any facilities. Miscreants would not be allowed to disrupt peace in the tribes’ areas and to take part in anti-government activities. Halimzai tribes will not allow any training centres for militants in their areas either. The Halimzai tribes will demolish or burn down the house of anyone found involved in anti-state activities, in addition to a Rs 500,000 fine and banishment from the area.
Mohmand agency has seen a marked increase in Taliban activity over the past year, with bombings, rocket attacks, “night letters,” and other attacks. In June, the Taliban threatened pro-government tribal leaders in the agency. “You people are infidels and hypocrites,” the Taliban letter to the tribes stated. “If you don’t stop negotiations with the government and meetings against the Taliban, then explosion(s) will occur in your homes.”
At the end of July, over 100 Taliban fighters occupied a historic mosque and shrine in the tribal agency and renamed it the Lal Masjid, or Red Mosque, after the Taliban Mosque in Islamabad that was assaulted by the government in mid-July.
The Mohmand Taliban at the New Red Mosque is led by Omar Khalid, who claims to have 3,000 armed and trained fighters under his command. After seizing the mosque, he denied links with the Taliban and al Qaeda even as he pledged allegiance Red Mosque leader Ghazi Abdur Rashid. “If [the Taliban] come to us, we will welcome them,” said Khalid. “We will continue Ghazi Abdur Rashid’s mission even if it means sacrificing our lives.” Khalid also threatened to “use suicide bombers in self defence” if the new Red Mosque was raided. He seeks to “Islamize” the local tribes and plans establishing a “vice and virtue force.”
Several tribes in Mohmand formed a jirga, or council, to discuss the “birth of the Taliban” in the agency. The Taliban rejected the calls to abandon the mosque, and announced “a tribal jirga would be invited to urge tribal parents to send their children for Islamic education at the madrassa,” the Daily Times reported. “Around 300 students could be given free accommodation and food at the madrassa.” The madrassa at the new Red Mosque opened shortly afterward.
Pakistan continues to attempt to sign peace treaties with the Taliban and/or local tribal leaders, only to see the terms of deals violated and extremism increase in the tribal agencies. The Taliban now openly rule in tribal agencies of North and South Waziristan and Bajaur and in the settled district of Swat. Attacks against security forces and the government occur on a daily basis, while the Taliban and al Qaeda operate training camps and conduct strikes from their safe havens into Afghanistan.
While some Pakistan watchers have believed the peace accords are to be used in conjunction with a yet-to-be-announced offensive in the tribal agencies to route the Taliban and al Qaeda and restore the government’s writ, no such operation has been launched. And with summer nearing its end, the window to launch such an operation has closed.
The Pakistani government has signaled it has no intention of toughing it out. President Musharraf recently said the army will withdraw from the tribal agencies by January 2008, leaving security to the paramilitary forces including the Frontier Constabulary, the Levies, and the Khasadars. Members of the paramilitary forces have been abandoning their posts in the face of Taliban suicide and conventional attacks on checkpoints, convoys, and the homes and families of members.
12 Comments
I’m going to agree with your analysis Bill, at the same time at the original Red mosque, or Lal Masjid, Jamia Hafsa students are demonstrating to get it reopened by this Friday.
The agreement is pretty much the same as they made last time, so I don’t see any reason behind this, and the Army is pulling out of the Frontier by month’s end to be replaced by FC corps — who are more able to hunt the Taliban, but also more sympathetic.
You have to wonder however if this version of the Taliban are going to focus on Pakistan, or whether they will turn once again north to destabilize Afghanistan instead.
Is the Halimzai tribe sympathetic to the taliban?
Very accurate analysis – brilliant, in fact. Congratulations. What Mr. Roggio describes as the actual actions of the Pakistan security forces as opposed to the show being out up for the US media, Congress etc. is 100% true, as is his description of their predicament.
My personal view that Afghanistan is more important than Iraq is too well known to push here, especially as Mr. Roggio does not agree. But I think we do agree that the NWFP situation is getting more dangerous by the day and there is no end to the deterioration.
I must make clear I do not blame Pakistan Government for its inaction: it really cannot do more than the small amount it is doing. US is flogging a horse that is shuffling along the best it can.
Ravi,
I am curious what your thoughts are on why the Musharraf government is so weak? Is the military split and he does not have the power to control it?
This has been discussed here and at the highest levels(see Council on Foreign Affairs).
Several issues well known and public are we cannot trust even his top cabinet and military leaders with crucial information on terrorist camps. Whenever we release sensitive data to top levels, it is forwarded on to our enemy.
I’m not sure what solution Benazir Bhutto brings to the table and if her party is strong enough to align moderates?
Curious what others think. Of course, these actions are important and Pakistan is in a precarious situation right now. We need the Pakistani government to be strong. So, is Musharraf so weak in power he cannot maintain leverage agaisnt the Taliban and terrorist?
Trackbacked by The Thunder Run – Web Reconnaissance for 08/29/2007
A short recon of what’s out there that might draw your attention, updated throughout the day…so check back often.
Very obviously, one cannot expect the Pakistani soldiers to hunt their own kinsmen.
Religious, regional and clan ties are stronger than nationalist belonging in this part of the world, so Musharraf cannot be expected to risk his own neck to keep President George Bush happy.
The Pakistani president who is a fan of the Turkish leader Kemal Ataturk cannot be oblivious to the fate of the late Egyptian leader Anwar Sadat. Months after signing the Camp David accord with Israel under the tutelage of President Jimmy Carter, Sadat was shot dead by his own soldiers during a military parade.
Sadat’s killers were linked to the Islamic Brotherhood which traces its links to the Wahabbist leaders of Saudi Arabia from where Osama bin Laden springs from.
There are two types of authoritarian leaders in the Middle East. One of them is like Mushie and is weak and makes deals with the devil to try to stay in power. The other is totally brutal and will bury any and all their potental enemies and their families in mass graves like Hafez al-Assad and Saddam.
I sadly don’t believe democracy in Pakistan will do anything but make it harder to commit the Pakistani Army to the tribal areas as it is quite unpopular in just about all of Pakistan.
What does that leave us with? The very bad option of a totally brutal authoritarian Pakistani leader or the very bad opinion of al-Qaeda keeping a base in the tribal areas.
Shiv, others,
That about leaves it where I suspected from everything I’ve read so far. Thanks for the feedback. I’m well aware of Egypts history and I know Musharraf has been walking a tight rope.
But you get the feeling, least I do, that it cannot last.
What I still do not fully understand is how bringing Bhutto into the picture will help. Due to the close relations of the Taliban within ISI and the military, I’m not sure how she can overcome these issues any better even if she wins elections aligned with Musharraf.
Another part of the puzzle is how deep does this run? 50% ISI/Military/Taliban links?
What is the intel on this? Is there any chance at rooting out the extremist elements? Bhutto talks a good game, civilian leadership, etc., but how realistic is she?
Anyone have an answer to Michael’s question? How about the article Bill quoted on the left:
http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/asiapcf/08/29/pakistan.negotiations/index.html
(Pres. Musharraf willing to step down as Army chief)
Anand,
I saw that right after I posted. Interesting to watch this all unfold. And how much real disturbance can the former PM Sharif stir up?
Ever since Pakistan’s military dictator Zia-ul-Haq began his Islamization programme in the 1970s, the number of ‘beards’ as the fundamentalists are known there, have risen in the army.
The buzz coming out of Pakistan is that some 40 to 50 per cent of the troops are definitely of jihadi persuasion.
Musharaff has gotten rid of most jihadis in the ranks of Generals, but now that the guy is in trouble the crackdown on the hardliners are off. Also the ISI is playing a dirty game, propping up jihadis all over the place.
The putsch against Musharaff will therefore come from within his own ranks – from the fundamentalists within the establishment
Ever since Pakistan’s military dictator Zia-ul-Haq began his Islamization programme in the 1970s, the number of ‘beards’ as the fundamentalists are known there, have risen in the army.
The buzz coming out of Pakistan is that some 40 to 50 per cent of the troops are definitely of jihadi persuasion.
Musharaff has gotten rid of most jihadis in the ranks of Generals, but now that the guy is in trouble the crackdown on the hardliners are off. Also the ISI is playing a dirty game, propping up jihadis all over the place.
The putsch against Musharaff will therefore come from within his own ranks – from the fundamentalists within the establishment