Iraqi implications of Turkish parliamentary elections

Written by David Tate for The Fourth Rail

By just about all outside accounts, the overwhelming victory in Turkey by the incumbent Justice and Development Party (AKP) during parliamentary elections July 22, was a serious wake-up call to all interests in the future of this Muslim democracy. The resounding victory, which the AKP won nearly 47 percent of the vote that drew 85 percent of the voters, was 15 points higher than in the 2002 election and the second biggest landslide in Turkish history. It was a surprise primarily because the world, just months before, witnessed huge protests against then pro-Western Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government, which appeared to be moving closer to the use of religion in public policy.

The victory created enough alarm that the AKP earned a warning from the highly-secular Turkish military, which has three times since 1960, removed a sitting government for similar overtones, including an ancestor party of AKP. Early elections were called by Erdogan after the parliament successfully blocked his nominee, Abdullah Gul, from becoming Turkey’s president.

AKP was also under fire for not taking a more aggressive stance against PKK guerrillas operating out of northern Iraq and southeastern Turkey. This year alone the insurgency has claimed at least 81 Turkish soldiers killed in action, on their own soil, as of August 6. This is an increase of more than 60 percent over last year’s violence. Several high-profile civilian bombings have also been pinned on PKK, whether proven true or not. This allowed for the country’s nationalist party to also make big gains with nearly 15 percent of the vote, but hurt main opposition challenger, Republican’s People Party (CHP), which only pulled 21 percent of the vote. In fact, the political side of the government, led by AKP, is hoping for a more diplomatic solution to the insurrection. This includes taking a much less threatening approach concerning the Iraqi border issues and welcoming Kurdish Deputies (MP) that denounce the PKK terrorists, including Orhan Miroglu, who said, “Sunday’s (July 22) results are a victory for common sense and civilian democracy over a politics of nationalism and foreign intervention.”

Most notable for AKP in the election, however, was its ability to win seats in the southeast, where Kurdish parties normally dominate and PKK terrorists get grass roots support. AKP won seven of 13 southeastern provinces, which in the previous election in 2002 were won by the Kurdish nationalist party known then as the Democratic’s People Party (DEHAP); the party has since changed names to the Democratic Turkey’s Party (DTP). Beyond that, several Kurdish candidates this year decided to run as independents because they had a better chance of getting into parliament. This move was meant to circumvent Turkey’s 10 percent national threshold needed for a party to get into parliament, something the Kurds argue keeps them from having proper government representation. By running as independents, candidates need only 10 percent of the vote from their province to get into parliament. This move earned former DTP candidates 24 seats, including one newly elected MP that won from prison.

Most importantly, this election may indicate a swing away from nationalism and separatism in favor of a move toward moderation and unity with the southeast part of Turkey, an area of the country that can ill-afford continued civil strife as economic depression continues to haunt the region. Kurdish MPs hope that representing Kurdish issues in parliament for the first time in 10 years could help lead to peace. At a time when unemployment in the southeast of Turkey is almost 60 percent, any major disruption across the Iraqi frontier is especially worrisome for an already afflicted population. With AKP firmly in control of the government, expect Erdogan, a declared pacifist, to push forward with reforms needed for EU membership, which include resolving issues involving the treatment of the Kurdish minority. This coupled with real Kurdish representation in parliament, shows progress may move more quickly in resolving issues that are helping drive young Kurds into the ranks of a resurging PKK.

This very touchy subject puts Erdogan at odds with the highly secular Turkish military over exactly how to handle the Kurdish-led violence, which was the top issue lobbied by AKP’s opposition. In the weeks leading up to the parliamentary election, some serious saber-rattling occurred that included exaggerated reports of a large-scale Turkish invasion of northern Iraq and very real artillery barrages that targeted areas of the frontier believed to support PKK fighters( In all, sources close to The Long War Journal estimate there are 2,000 Turkish soldiers currently stationed in northern Iraq. On the other side of the border various sources put the Turkish military presence on the Iraqi border between 140,000 to 240,000 military personnel. Other news sources are reporting numbers of at least 200,000 troops on the Turkish side of the border. Current PKK strength ranges from 2,800 to 3,100 in northern Iraq and up to 3,000 active fighters in Turkey itself. It is this problem that plagues US-Turkish relations: A perception by Turkey that the US is doing nothing to aid a NATO ally in its very active war with the PKK..

Known as the Kurdistan Worker’s Party, the PKK is a group recognized by most countries, including the US, as an international terrorist organization. According to columnist Robert Novak, that is all about to change. Just last week, Novak is reporting that US Special Forces are working with Turkish Forces on forthcoming plans to take on the PKK in the Qandill Mountains of Iraq, specifically targeting the leadership. This move would certainly be broadly welcome in Turkey, where the majority appears not to favor a full-scale incursion. It may also silence Turkish critics that blame the US for its ongoing security issues. However, a move by US and Turkish forces could also destabilize one of the more stable areas of Iraq and a people that are overwhelmingly pro-American.

In even more recent developments, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Malaki has agreed in principle that something needs to be done about PKK attacks originating from Iraqi soil. Maliki and Erdogan met August 6 in Ankara to discuss the issue, agreeing to cooperate. The Turks wanted Malaki to sign an anti-terrorism agreement, which he refused, deferring the matter until it could be taken up by Iraq’s parliament. With the Kurds holding fast within his coalition, Malaki is walking a fine line when dealing with the issue of the PKK. Many Kurds see the PKK as freedom fighters and not necessarily terrorists.

Iraqi Kurd leader Massoud Barzani has already pledged to resist any Turkish incursion. Barzani also warned Turkey that an attack on Iraq would likely incite the sizable Kurdish population inside Turkey itself, a threat Turkey’s military and government did not take well, especially as the region moves closer to the referendum over the future of oil-rich Kirkuk, Iraq. A vote that will most likely put the city in control of the Kurds and just as likely ignite a new level of strife that could throw the entire region into open war.

David Tate is an award-winning videojournalist interested in international humanitarian and political subjects. David has been on more than a dozen military embeds including seven months in Afghanistan. A former US Marine, David has also reported from Iraq and conflict areas of southeastern Turkey. David’s website is Battlefield Tourist.

Bill Roggio is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the Editor of FDD's Long War Journal.

Tags: Iraq, Turkey