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Hamas fighters pose in President Abbas’ office in Gaza. |
Hamas gains control of the Gaza Strip, Israel’s strategic situation has worsened
The Palestinian Civil War in the Gaza Strip has ended with Hamas defeating Fatah, its long time rival. The fighting over the past six days resulted in over 110 reported deaths, and these are the numbers that can be confirmed. The highly motivated Hamas fighters immediately seized upon the victory to declare its Islamic State, with all the trappings of a strict interpretation of sharia, or Islamic law.
By the few first hand accounts available from inside the Gaza Strip, the situation has degenerated into a cross of Lord of the Flies and Escape from New York. In less than a week’s fighting, Hamas ran roughshod over the numerically superior, long established and better armed Fatah security forces. Hamas attacked and killed women and children for merely being affiliated with Fatah. Captured Fatah officers were frog marched through the streets in various states of undress, and beat and executed their rivals. Fatah fighters were thrown from roofs of buildings. Executions of Fatah members are said to be ongoing, although Hamas offered an amnesty.
Hamas is now engaged in an orgy of looting. “An AFP correspondent witnessed dozens of Palestinians taking everything they could carry from Dahlan’s villa — furniture, plant pots and even the kitchen sink, complete with the plumbing fixtures… masked gunmen rode on the back of armoured vehicles taken from Abbas’s presidential guard… Windows, doors, toilets, furniture, taps, even the light bulbs were gone.”
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Hamas celebrates in Gaza, while members site on a captured Fatah armored vehicle. |
The fall of Gaza was only a matter of time. After Hamas’ election victory in January of 2006, it became clear it could not coexist with Fatah. The signs of civil war, particularly in Gaza, were apparent.
At the end of April, I joined a group of journalists on a one week tour of Israel, sponsored by the American Israeli Education Fund. Part of the trip included a helicopter tour of Israel – I don’t think you can understand the scope of Israel’s security dilemma unless you see the close quarters the Israelis live with respect to the Syrians, Palestinians, Lebanese, Jordanians, Egyptians – and Hezbollah.
We visited and Israeli Defense Force outpost near the southern town of Sderot, which is shelled by the Palestinian terror groups Islamic Jihad and Hamas on a near daily basis.
Gaza City was just a few miles over the border, the outpost lay just a mile from the Gaza Strip. After receiving a briefing from an IDF spokesman and a Colonel in charge of a combat brigade in the region, I remarked to several members of the group that the situation inside Gaza was far, far worse than we could understand. Seth Gitell, a columnist and contributing editor of The New York Sun, was in the group and confirms this in his excellent update on the situation in Gaza.
Besides the open source reporting of the building chaos inside Gaza, the signals given by our Israeli hosts were clear. The Israeli officers were clearly unsettled and seemed perplexed about how to deal with the threat from Gaza. Under no circumstances were we permitted to go near the border while in the care of the Israelis. In the helicopter, we went no closer than 3 miles to Gaza. The overlook was as close they would take us on the ground. The Israelis recommended that under no circumstances should we consider venturing Contrast this with the West Bank, where we drove the bus through, stood on the wall, and the warnings not to enter into Palestinian administered territory were far less severe.
While in Israel, we met with numerous members of the Israeli elite: intellectuals, military officers, think tankers, journalists, businessmen, and government officials. Both the peace plans of the heady days of the 1990s, and disengagement from Gaza were recognized as failed policies. The majority of the political spectrum, from Likud to Labor, recognized there must be a two state solution, but there must be a legitimate, earnest partner in peace. The recurring question, which went unanswered, was with whom the Israelis would negotiate the two state solution. Many were resigned that a viable partner would not emerge for ten to twenty years.
But the fact is no partner exists on the Palestinian side that accepts the two state premise. Since the Olso Accords were signed in 1993, Yassir Arafat and his Fatah party paid lip service to the idea, all the while promoting the destruction of Israel on government sponsored television and radio. Palestinian schools indoctrinated their children on Islamist literature and encouraged the youth to martyr themselves.
After rejecting the Camp David Accords in 2000, which guaranteed a Palestinian state, Arafat unleashed his fighters to take part in the Second Intifada. Members of Fatah and its extremist Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades fought along side Islamic Jihad and Hamas. Seven years later, President Mahmoud Abbas, Arafat’s successor, was destroyed by the monster it succored.
With Hamas’ military takeover of Gaza, any chances for negotiating a two state solution in the near term has ended. While Fatah at least pretended to accept the idea of Israeli and Palestinian states coexisting, Hamas makes no pretenses. Hamas refuses to acknowledge the existence of Israel, and seeks to “drive the Jews into the sea.”
While in Israel, many of the intellectuals we spoke to feared a war this summer, and looked north to Lebanon and the threat from Hezbollah. The Olmert government is weak due to its poor showing in the Israel-Hezbollah War of 2006. Iran is flexing its muscle in the region, has worked to rearm Hezbollah in Lebanon and threatened to “wipe Israel from the map.” Syria has been rattling sabers, and is believed to have redeployed weapons systems and troops to the border.
But the engine for war in the near term may be inside Gaza. Hamas’ swift military victory was no accident. The terror group has been trained by Iran’s Qods Force. Israeli officers told us they’ve captured operatives and seized documents which prove this. Hamas, along with its ally Islamic Jihad, have continuously shelled the town of Sderot, which is politically untenable in the long term. Israeli military officers now fear Hamas rocket can hit the city of Ashkelon, about seven miles north of the Gaza border.
Can the Islamic State of Hamastan hold back from attacking Israel? Can the Israelis allow Hamas consolidate power in the Gaza Strip? Will the Israelis allow Hamas to rule Gaza, and risk having the West Bank fall under Hamas’ control? We should know the answers to these questions this summer.
55 Comments
We seem to be allowing Iran to both prepare their battlefield and to pick the time and place of their choosing to eventually initiate hostilities against Israel.
I would expect a three-pronged offensive at this point. Attacks from Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria and possibly a West Bank attack if things are allowed to deteriorate there over the summer.
My gut instincts are that we are simply allowing Iran to have the initiative and I can not understand the motivation for that. We are allowing Iran to operate in Iraq, Afghanistan, probably Pakistan, Lebanon, Syria and the PA. Why?
Perhaps to give them enough rope to hang themselves?
If Hamas openly declares itself the sole power broker of the PA, Israel will strike. The Hamas charter declares Israel must be destroyed. Hence the typically deceitful claims of amnesty and the false recognition of Abbas as the “elected president”. Israel now faces a 2 front assault at least. I would be surprised if a US Carrier Strike Group (or two) didn’t suddenly appear in the Eastern Med.
let the palestinians in Gaza suffer until they crave the peace and prosperity Israel offered.
then simulataneously smash Hamas in Palestine, Hezbolla in Lebanon, and Syria as well.
the way to deal with Iran is to smash their fingers in the Eastern Mediterranean.
RTLM
Why should we divert a CVBG there?
Israel has the most powerfull Air Force in the ME. Diverting a CVBG would be a waste of assets.
Neither Israel or Egypt wants Hamas to continue. One or the other (or both) will deal with it. They have no choise in the matter.
The strings for this puppet go to Iran. That is where the US CVBGs will stay…
We should never lose sight of what now must become a critical objective in Gaza.
Every step we take in Gaza should be consistent with the goal of reducing the growing strength of al-Qaeda in Gaza.
All steps recommended here must be examined carefully in that light.
The long-term objective must be to reduce the role of al-Qaeda in Gaza.
We need metrics to ensure that this goal of reducing al-Qaeda is being met.
That’s my view.
I remember ever so clearly 30 years ago when it was universally assumed that the PLO (now in the form of Fatah) was a Soviet puppet and that once their Soviet patrons stopped funding them they would wither on the vine.
That turned out to be incorrect.
This is one link (of many) describing the deep concern the Israelis now have about al Qaeda in Gaza.
http://tinyurl.com/2gmswe
If the Israelis are deeply concerned about the growing presence of al-Qaeda in Gaza, it is of no benefit whatsoever to us to ignore it.
Every step we take going forward in Gaza has to be absolutely and completely consistent with stopping the growth of al-Qaeda there.
No exceptions.
It does indeed look bad.However, maybe there is opportunity here as well
Supposing Isreal now does something clever and does a deal with Fatah giving them an uutonoomus state in the West Bank with the option of full indepenadence when there is a final Arasb-Isreali peace settlement
The Palestinians would now have their own autonomus state within Isreal and the promise of full statehood down the line. Isreal, perhaps even together with fatah can now turn on Hammas in Gaza and anything they might have in the West Bank. Hamas gets taken out. If Hezbollah, Syria or Iran are silly wnough to interefere then that gives a Casus Belli to the US and Isreal to take them out too (although I doubt Syria and Iran would be silly enough to provide such a provocation
If they do, checkmate.
“Israel if Netanyahu wins the Prime Ministership has no choice but to prove that it can still decisively win a war”
I would take issue with that statement. I would hope that Israel would be (and trust that they are) more careful in their strategic military thinking than to engage in battle simply for reasons of political ego.
Gaza is already hemorrhaging population and the pace of the population migration out of there is likely to increase now. Hamas may find itself ruling an ever decreasing number of Palestinians.
One way to “smash Iran’s fingers” in the region is for them to fail miserably. This would be much more effective then a military defeat. If Fatah can be seen to deliver some kind of peace and prosperity while Hamas is seen to deliver nothing but death and misery, it really won’t matter how much backing Hamas has from Iran. If you strike Hamas with the military before they have been shown to be an utter economic failure then you risk making them look as if they are being bullied and play into an Arab cultural fascination with lost causes.
The Road to Hamastan:
Bill Roggio says Israel’s strategic situation has worsened as Hamas gains control of the Gaza Strip….
So, let us suppose that Isreal, Fatah and the West do a deal. Fatah remains in the West Bank with all sanctions lifted and lots of aid and development money going in as long as they behave themselves. They have an uutonomous state and maybe eventual full independence from Isreal if that is what they really want. This pulls the rug out of one of the extremists’ main arguments.
I agree that Syria and Iran would have to be insane to start or war, which is why I said “If Hezbollah, Syria or Iran are silly enough to interefere” Having said that governments/organizations, particularly ones with extremist ideollogies, do not always do the sensible thing and Ahmadinaded may not be exactly stable.
All of this needs to be seen in the regional grand strategies of the United States, Isreal, Syria and Iran. Decisions made by the various leaders will influence the course of events and, as things are at the moment will risk escalating the crisis in the whople of the Middle East to the point where a big regional war develops even if that was not the intended result.
Thinking back on history we should remember that the First World War grew out of a local conflict between the Austro Hungarian Empire and the Serbs. Within a few weeks it had pulled in every great power in Europe with the exception of Turkey and they soon followed. similar dynamics could develop in the Middle East and may well do so given the way things are going.
So, who thinks it was a bad idea to build a wall around Gaza now?
I am not as optomistic as others on this site that Hamas and Hezbollah can simply be defeated by Israel. Israel has been fighting both entities for a while now and both have become stronger. Hamas has a relativly large safe haven now in the Gaza strip, they are armed to the teeth with american arms, and most importantly they seem to have found many Fatah documents which outlined Israeli, Fatah, and american spy networks in the Gaza.These networks will take time to rebuild.
The Blockade of Gaza to show that Hamas cannot govern may be the best of the bad options. I wouldnt be so sure that this will work though. Hamas has complete control of the border with Egypt so Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood will probably smuggle in enough food and water not to mention weapons to keep the Palestinians content. The Humanitarian situation of the Palestinians has never been that good so I doubt a few nights without electricity and food will make them renounce Hamas and their religion. Since the start of the Palestinian resistance the forces confronting Israel have only become more radical from the early PLO, to Fatah, and then Hamas. If Hamas falls I do not see the tide reversing only getting worse with the Palestinians embracing Al Qaeda like Tony said. To sum it all up the Israelis are in a hell of a mess. They are surrounded by enemies who use guerilla tactics that the Israelis have not yey figured out how to defeat. They probably could level the Gaza by air if they had no other choice but that would probably be only a temporary solution since many of the fighters are dug in under ground. They could re occupy Gaza but that didnt work so well the first time and it would leave the militarily short changed in a major confrontation with Hezbollah in which you would also have to occupy much of southern lebanon and even some of Beirut. Israel needs to lose some enemies they cannot fight Hamas, Radical Fatah elements, Hezbollah, Syria, and Iran at the same time.
Will the starvation and siege proposals for Gaza discussed here increase the appeal of al-Qaeda among Gaza residents?
Highly likely.
Bad outcome.
We need our policies to cause FEWER (not greateer) recruits to al Qaeda.
Keep your eyes on the big picture.
Al Qaeda is a growing threat in both Gaza and Lebanon, according to senior Likud members.
That is the threat.
That is the issue.
Being distracted is not a way forward.
My view is that the Hamas takeover in Gaza, while bad in the short term, will be beneficial in the long term for Israel. The sad fact is that the IDF has had one hand tied behind its back for years. The world has consistently viewed (in public anyway) the Palestinians as victims, whether of circumstance or of the Jews, thereby putting public pressure and insane rules on Israel in its defense efforts. Now that Gaza will be a true Islamic state, world opinion and Isreali public opinion will finally have an official shift against Gaza and Hamas thereby loosening (or eliminating) the self imposed handcuffed military response to aggression. When Hamas does attack Israel fully (or steps up its rocket attacks), Isreal will be viewed as truly defending itself against murderous terrorists instead of “suppressing the minority”.
On the other front, as some commenters have noticed, this may (I repeat….MAY) give more chance to a two state solution. If Israel and Hamas go to war, and Israel takes the gloves off, the people of the West Bank will see what options remain in a more stark light – settle for a state or eventually face ruin. Bitter a pill as that may be, in my view it increases the likelihood of peace in the long term.
Or it may just all go as it has always gone……..continuous Hell in a Handbasket.
Iran’s covert meddling in both Gaza and Lebanon is a westward extension of its covert campaign against the U.S. in Iraq and Afghanistan. That makes Iran both their enemy, and ours.
The U.S. has been conducting covert operations of its own against Iran’s network in Iraq. These were very effective and clearly scared the rulers in Tehran–it is no accident that in March, they chose to seize British and not American personnel.
Because Iran is afraid to provoke an outright confrontation with the U.S., we might help ourselves and Israel by moving the necessary naval and air forces into position for a blockade. The line would probably be established well outside the Straits of Hormuz, where Iran could not interfere even if it dared. Or, less likely, the newest U.S. subs might be able gradually to mine Iran’s ports in secret. Just sending the signals to activate the mines would then impose a blockade.
Once everything was in place, only three days’ notice would stand between the war criminals in Tehran and the humiliation of a blockade. The U.S. could also made clear that it would respond to any attempt to retaliate against the blockade with terrorist acts by destroying Iran’s navy, offensive missiles, and air defenses from the air.
All this should be possible. In 1962 the U.S. did something similar, but to the USSR–a truly fearsome opponent with very powerful conventional forces and 3,100 nuclear weapons. Swatting down a third-rate power like Iran, which apparently has NO nuclear weapons, is not as risky as often portrayed. Its leaders know very well that a flat-out confrontation with the U.S. would probably cost them their power or even their lives.
So far, it is a lack of American will that is making Iran so adventurous. Allowing that IS dangerous, and it will soon become much more so.
I think we are on the edge of a war of the type not seen for some generatia. The Islamic Radical Alliaince both of the Sunni & Shia stripe are feeling thier oats. The LLL’s here and in the west including Israel have undermined our moral to the point were we are looking as a dying deseased giant with a weak heart and the predators are moving to secure thier peice of the kill.
The westernized nationalist type Muslims like Fatah, March 13, Saudi Royals, Egypt, Jordan, Pakistan all are seeing thier future fate under the radicals via Fatah/Hamas in Gaza. The Radical threat these leaders have ignored and cut deals with have come home to roost and are no longer looking for a payoff they want it all.
I think the Radicals are overpstepping. I think we are going to see that Arab Alliance get alot stronger and agressive in helping US and maybe even Israel as well to roll back the Radical advance. Not becuase they love US suddenly but for thier own slimy hides sack.
I believe we will have a war this Summer within the next months. It will drag in the entire region the Arab Alliance the Radical Alliance and of course the US, Isreal, Britian and I believe France as well this time and of course our other allies pretty much NATO in whole.
-That war will be a air campain on Syria/Iran on the level of GW1 targeting central government control, WMD, conventional military power then rolling into no-fly-zones over both nations definatley Iran underwhich we will support revolution.
-I believe our forces in Iraq will be in a holding action (my personal belief of why the surge is being done especially the new 15month deployment).
-The USN marine anphib units will be working overtime taking the islands and oil/gas platforms of Iran. I doubt we will see much major invasion of Iran or Syria by US forces.
-Gaza I think will be given to Egypt
-Israel I believe will invade Lebanon with the goal of destroying Hezbollah all the way to the Beeka possibly into parts of Syria as well. I think it will be a fast moving menuever warefare with the goal of destroying as much of Hezbollah weapons stores as possible along with any units that dare try to stop them. The embargo and bombing of Syria will make these stores irriplacible. Israel I beleive will not stay or hold any ground instead will hit then immediatley pull back allowing the Lebonese Army to do the mop up against a conventianlly broken Hezbollah.
-The Radicals will hit with terrorist strikes across the world definatley in EU and very likley in US proper as well. I think it will give the impression of choas but it will be a fire in the pan. Oil will for a time go through the roof but will again flash in the pan.
-I believe the EU will stand with US and the Arab Alliance. France, Britian I believe will be hands on.
-I this all will be months of very heavy actions bombing ect… that will roll into a slower longterm attrition via moderates vs a broken Radical allaince. I would give good odds to Iran flipping via internal revolution with small support and US no-fly-zone unbrella after we decimate the Iranian convential force and central government control infastructure.
I am not sure how/what the spark will be but I believe when it pops it will be like Dominos the whole line will fall in rapid order.
Its going to be ugly and sacrifise is going to be high. However I don’t believe it avoidable.
DJ Elliot,
Agreed all strings connected to Iran. But we need not divert assets in place, but rather add to the Strike Groups already on station. We have three in the Persian Gulf now; Nimitz, Stennis and Bonhomme Richard. We have two currently in the Atlantic doing full work ups; Enterprise and Truman. Our Air Force assets are plentiful in the Gulf region plus the bombers at Diego Garcia. A Carrier Strike Group stationed off Syria’s coast would be a considerable force multiplier when rockets again start flying – and coverage is needed not only over Gaza and Lebanon, but over Syria as well. And I am completely without any confidence that Egypt will lift a finger against Hamas.
18 months ago ALQueda declare the Islamic State of AlQaim in Western AlAnbar. It took a while for the Anbarians to come to the conclusion that the lifestyle being proferred by AlQueda was less than desirable.
The same will be true of the new “Islamic State of Gaza”. The trick will be to contain it long enoughfor people to decide that the “Hamas” lifestyle isn’t for them.
“The trick will be to contain it long enoughfor people to decide that the “Hamas” lifestyle isn’t for them.”
I concur 100% with this conclusion. If that happens and the people decide that the Hamas way really is the way to despair, no amount of Iranian support will allow Hamas to retain power short of totalitarian fascism and those kinds of regimes tend to be short lived in the books of history.
Successful, sustainable regimes tend to be those that serve at the will and pleasure of the population and that ultimately depends more on quality of life than on ideology and slogans.
When you think of Fatah, it’s best to think of the PLO. That is the most accurate description of them, Fatah is just the PLO with a new name. A bunch of corrupt thugs, some of whom happen to wear business suits now that Arafat has died. Fatah was trounced in recent elections by Hamas primarily because their corruption was truly breathtaking, even by Middle Eastern standards. So to think that the Palestinian people are going to embrace Fatah is simply unrealistic. I wish I was wrong, but I’m not.
Just a shred of history isn’t going to kill us here. Recall that for well over 30 years our unified approach tried to starve and kill the PLO into submission. Now we have Hamas to contend with, which is much worse.
Continuing to starve Gaza with a siege will only increase the membership and strength of al Qaeda right on Israel’s border. A completely failed statelet similar to a little Somalia with a strong al Qaeda presence in Gaza serves no rational purpose and is more catastrophic than most people realize. It is to be avoided at all costs.
For those who apparently have forgotten that al-Qaeda is EASILY an order of magnitude worse than Hamas, I draw their attention to the catastrophic events of 9/11.
Don’t be distracted by sideshows. Remain focused on the big picture. We need our actions in Gaza to weaken al Qaeda, not strengthen it.
No mistakes. Think it through.
Tony,
We we can accept in Gaza and what the Israelis can accept are not the same thing.
The Israelis currently send in electricity to Gaza from a plant in Ashkelon. And water. How can the Israelis politically sustain this once Hamas consolidates power and moves forward? All decisions are not made in Washington.
How is the West Bank after all of this? Is it possible for Israel to use the split between Hamas and Fatah to somehow improve relationships with the West Bank? Solving half the problem would be better than what they have now.
It just seems like that’s what Petraeus is doing within Iraq.
Israel’s problem is that they are decent people trying to fight barbarians and their every move is condemned by anti-semitic, worthless, third world dictators running the UN. Hamas is committing acts of war on a daily basis. They should be thankful for Israel’s restraint because Israel has every right fight back and utterly destroy Hamas.
Hi Bill-
Thanks for providing the space here for a broad and reasoned debate. You’re doing a great job!
Great post and excellent questions.
I personally never thought that Olmert would survive the difficult experience in Lebanon, the fallout that came about because of that very difficult war, numerous high level corruption scandals and a high level public call from within his own party to resign. For months I have incorrectly believed that the accession of Netanyahu to power was imminent. Yet like a cat with 16 lives, Olmert continues to remain in power. Perhaps he is still able to ride on the credibility associated with Sharon’s legacy and this accounts for his resilience.
So let’s assume Olmert remains in power for another 9 months, which was an unthinkable possibility late last year. And we have the rise to power of Ehud Barak as his coaliton partner. Despite his flaws, some of them serious, Barak is a brilliant military man who won’t let his temper or his personal political agenda influence the cold calculus needed before rushing into any war.
So there is a shred of hope. And actually Netanyahu has changed his tactics quite a bit in the last year and is clearly learning from his experience. This is good.
Your question goes to political sustainability. How can the Israeli leadership fail to respond to public calls for a decisive end to the rocket attacks coming from Gaza?
First, a bit of context helps. Fortunately for all of us, although they are extremely aggravating, the Qassam rockets currently used by Hamas are militarily a much smaller threat than the rockets in the Hezbollah arsenal. They are simply less lethal and less accurate. And there is clearly no imminent threat to Tel Aviv from rockets launched in the South.
What is required here is political leadership on the part of Olmert and his new coalition partner Barak. Barak knows that there are differences of opinion within Hamas that can be exploited and worked with.
Please recall that it seemed asinine and stupid 20 years ago to even contemplate discussions with the PLO while they had language calling for the destruction of Israel in their charter. Yet negotiations were entered into under Rabin and interludes of peace followed.
Hamas has pretty good control of their military wing and I ask you to recall that the ceasefire Hamas instituted a few years ago lasted for quite a while.
It needs to be understood across the board in the United States and Israel both that a strong al Qaeda presence in a mini-Somalia statelet in Gaza is the worst possible outcome, far worse than Hamas control of Gaza.
Any carrot and stick policy cannot consist solely of sticks. Israel is currently withholding 800 million dollars in taxes that are clearly due and owing to the Palestinians. Israel has some VERY big carrots it can provide in exchange for an end to the rocket attacks.
A measured and careful disbursement of carrots would be the first step.
I’m not an apologist for the thugs in Hamas. I’m simply saying that the interests of Hamas run clearly counter to those of al Qaeda, just like the interests of the Anbar tribes ran clearly counter to the al Qaeda agenda. And I’m stating that al Qaeda is a far greater threat to everyone than Hamas.
Given courageous leadership and some brilliant coalition building with some unsavory types, an alliance could be formed with Hamas against al Qaeda.
Something like the Anbar Salvation Council in Gaza; the Gaza Salvation Council comes to mind.
If we don’t do it now, I’m convinced we will need to do it in 5 years.
I apologize if my answer seems lengthy, but the sophistication of your question required a detailed answer.
Tony,
I agree with your comment and cogent analysis. Zawahiri and Osama have criticized Hamas in the strongest possible terms many times. They clearly aren’t happy with Hizbullah. They have also never mentioned Western pressure with Iran’s nuclear program as one of their many beefs around the world (for those who read their frequent and usually pretty boring monologues, their laundry list is pretty long). Few things scare themselves as much as a “Shia bomb.”
RTLM,
DJ is right. Let Israel smash Hamas if it wants to. There isn’t a need for us to participate in the smashing or send military assets to the region for that reason.
We should criticize Israel but not enough to actually stop them. (i.e. what we did when Israel bombed Saddam’s nuclear program in 1981.)
Our interests are different from Israel. And there isn’t a need for us to do any dirty work.
DJ,
Egypt partially fights and partially enables Hamas. Much like Musharraf and Al-Qaeda. That said, Egypt supports Fatah more than Hamas in the Palestinian civil war.
anand,
Israel should smash Hamas and Hezbollah. Even it she doesn’t want to. Israel should smash them alone. Problem is that smashing Hamas and Hezbollah will see a response from Syria. Syria has an Air Force of some 400 fighters and approx. 250 helicopters. If Israel is to embark on the pin point missions in Gaza, Lebanon and likely the West Bank it needs help in defending against waves of Syrian strike packages from the North, West and possibly East.
I’ll leave criticism of Israel to other folks. (nuance acknowledged).
And our interests are not so far separated from Israel’s. Actually they’re almost the same.
RTLM
1. Hamas has no Air Force. Israel already owns the skies over Gaza.
2. Israel has more than sufficient Air power and naval power for little Gaza and controls all except the border crossing to Egypt.
3. The USN has 10xCVBGs and two are in the yards at a time. 2-4 are in workups. That leaves 4-6 total available at any time. We do not have the resources to waste on an area already covered. Iran is a 4-6 CVBG op.
4. Do not lump CVBG and ESG into the same category. Two very different types of Force. The teeth of an ESG is its MEU and 13th MEU is in Anbar.
5. Israel borders Gaza. They have ground forces there already. Flight time for their Air Force Bases to Gaza is 4 miniutes.
Israel has a limited long range strike capability and has to violate other countries airspace to reach Iran. US CVBG does not have those problems.
Iran is the USN/USAF air problem.
Gaza/Lebanon/Syria is Israel’s.
We are not going to waste assets and cause deconfliction issues (blue-on-blue) by getting in Israel’s way. We are going to cover Iran in case.
Egypt’s government does not want Hamas to succeed because the elements in Egypt that want Hamas to succeed are also trying to take over the Govt. Egypt does not want more refugees with Hamas mixed in either.
The problem is that they cannot appear to be cooperating with Israel. Domestic political issue…
Anand, it is clear from the public statements made by numerous Hamas governmental figures after their election that what you are proposing, given the right circumstances, could readily be supported by Hamas. The Hamas leadership understands full well that if they do not pay attention to the horrific plight of their citizens that al Qaeda will only increase in strength.
In terms of whether Israel should negotiate with those Palestinians with blood on their hands (such as Hamas) I would point out that the henchmen of Abbas in the military wing of Fatah known as the al-Aqsa Martyr’s brigade have far too much blood on their hands and yet now the Israelis are reaching out to Fatah.
I’m glad that we have some agreement on key points.
Peace, just like war, is typically a long and excruciating process. Look at Northern Ireland as a recent example; that peace process took decades, but now even Ian Paisley is on board there. And the IRA was an exceptionally nasty terrorist organization.
As part of that excruciatingly long and agonizingly slow process of peace, I’m convinced that the first phase of the peace process between Hamas and Israel would involve a cessation of Hamas attacks of any sort (including rockets) inside Israel’s current borders, in exchange for partial release of the funds, coupled with the release of 150 prisioners from Israeli jails. Please recall that early last year Israel was in the process of releasing up to 400 prisoners before we all got sidetracked, so 150 prisoners would probably work at this stage.
With the guidance of Barak, a cessation of rocket attacks inside Israel would free up the political space in Israel enough so that the negotiations could proceed to the next phase which would include negotiating an end to the hostilities and attacks upon Israeli military units in the West Bank and Gaza. That would come next.
A critical mistake which was made during the Oslo process was that everyone agreed at the beginning that the status of Jerusalem would be settled last. However Clinton somehow came around to Netanyahu’s approach to Oslo, which was to accelerate the final status talks on Jerusalem much earlier than originally planned and everything went downhill from there.
Jerusalem of course remains a big issue and should be settled last.
In terms of Jerusalem, I stand foursquare with my Hasidic and Orthodox Jewish friends and allies against the policies which both Sharon and Netanyahu advocated for that city.
Unfortunately the MSM failed to report on the multiple riots of Hasidim and Orthodox Jewry against the profoundly foolish and counterproductive attempts of both Sharon and Netanyahu to not only have a McDonald’s restaurant inside the holy city, but, far worse, to have it open on the Sabbath.
This blind zeal of Netanyahu and Sharon to do such a thing universally outraged the Orthodox Jewish community, as well as the Muslims and Christians living there. The ferocity of the repeated Orthodox Jewish riots against such an abomination in the world’s holiest city should not be trivialized.
Frankly, my Hasidic friends and myself are sick and tired of being pushed around by Israeli secularists with no notion of how Jerusalem should be.
This is why the issue of Jerusalem should be settled last and not first. Because Netanyahu still has no clue as to how deep Orthodox Jewry resentment against his policies on observing the Sabbath in Jerusalem goes.
So Jerusalem comes last, not first.
Numbers are deceptive.
Syrian Air Force in not very good. Insufficient training and bad maintenance.
The threat to IAF from Syria is the SAMs. Those are almost as tight in Damascus as Saddam’s were in 1990 around Baghdad. Most are the same systems.
If Israel can buzz the Presidential House now, how long do you think Syria will last?
The Air threat to Israel is a joke. Hamas, Hizbollah and Syria combined would lose if the Israelis take the gloves off. The only help Israel needs for this we are already providing:
– Ammunition
– Cover Iran
The question is does the Govt of Israel have the will to do what it will take and have they learned the lessons from Lebanon?
(Air Power enthusests have been claiming wars can be won exclusively from the Air since 1903. They have yet to succeed…)
Personally, I think Iran and Syria are being led into a trap.
Bush can’t initiate another war without there being outrageous provocation, which Iran and Syria are now providing. The U.S. military, the State Department, and NATO are publicly documenting this misbehavior with unprecedented frankness.
Another thing to remember is that Israel did nowhere near as badly in the last war as is generally thought; likewise, the U.S. was doing nowhere near as badly in Iraq, even under Rumsfeld and Abizaid.
The world–particularly the Muslim world–believes the propaganda put out by its own press, which is always fatal.
Finally, Bush has gotten the region used to seeing carrier battle groups in the Gulf. This is one of the oldest hunting techniques in the book. If you’re always there, just hanging out, causing no problems, the prey stops noticing you.
And then one day…
KA-BLAMMO.
What I find interesting in all this is that HAMAS is very well organized, they usually have overt and covert objectives in most things they do.
They took the border crossing stations at Egypt, my question is “what’s coming across?”
I will offer a different viewpoint. Short term, I don’t think Gaza will be at the center of any campaign against Israel. The attacks against Israel will continue at a similar level with a few larger headline grabbing attacks mixed in. In the mean time, they will try to set up a pseudo government much like Hezbollah. They will also attempt (successfully) to blackmail the rest of the world to foot the bill for supporting Palestinian civilians.
I don’t think there will be another war against Israel this year and probably not next either. While the last war gave Israel a great deal of trouble there are too many things that count against it. Hezbollah still hasn’t yet capitalized on last years war in Lebanon and still need to overthrow the current Lebanese government. Iran cannot yet project the sort of massive regional power they need to defeat Israel. The fight against Israel is cause celebrity but for now they need to tend to things closer to home.
The situation in Iraq and Afghanistan are of much more immediate importance. Irans medium term goals are, become a nuclear power, leverage an American pullout from Iraq, start a second front against the Americans on the Iran – Afghanistan boarder, punish the Iraqi Kurds, eventually turn southern Iraq into a client state, destabilize the Jordanian government (possibly with a flood of Iraqi Sunnis), use it’s new relationship with Al Quada to destabilize regional Sunni governments in order to capitalize on the turmoil (destabilize Pakistan).
For a real war against Israel, Iran needs to have the US out of the region. It needs to dominate Iraq and gain direct supply routes to Syria. The Lebanese and Jordanian governments need to be overthrown. In the mean time the short term goal of Hamas is to take the West bank also.
Of course this means a large number of small inconclusive wars. Iran thinks in the long term it can win the small ugly long wars. To achieve this it counts on lack or resolve among westerners and inaction among much of the Arab world.
It is a long shot for Iran. But for the true believers, the cause is more important than life itself. I think they will faulter short of much of this. The question is how much damage can they do in the mean time.
Israel will have no choice but to invade Gaza in the next few weeks. what may be a plus in all this is that now israel has the chance to completely wipe out Hamas now that the organization is isolated with Fatah now out in the West Bank. Crazy enough, Egypt is worried rightly about the West Bank and keep tabs on that. Hezbollah will raise up throughout lebanon, and i bet we can trust those blue helmets there to duck and cover, but at least in the north, the lebanese troops have shown some competence. wild card is syria, syria would only attack israel if it sensed it could win and only with Irans backing. with all this going on, the head of the snake is beginning to show itself to the world community, which is Iran. I think that until Iran is taken care of, the status quo continues to lead to bigger problems, but maybe with merkel and sarkozy we can unite together but i dont expect china and russia to be friendly, probably neutral and provide intel to our enemies.
Prediction: Either CVN-65 or CVN-75 or both will end up in the Mediterranean. As far as blue on blue, Israel will be tasked solely for strikes on Gaza, Lebanon and possibly West Bank. Our job from the Med will be Syria strikes and support in Diyala Province, Iraq (Iran).
We actually have 11 active Carrier Groups, 7 are war ready. Kitty Hawk is still active and not scheduled for decommission until well into 2008. Reagan is in SD CA and ready. Eisenhower is in Norfolk and also ready. Truman and Enterprise are in the Atlantic as I said earlier.
And yes, in this case air power is our best and first option. US Ground Forces in Syria and Iran would not be popular or practical.
Thank you for the outstanding discussion.
RTLM
– This is Hawk’s last deployment.
– “E” has only one left too. (My first ship)
“Our job from the Med will be Syria strikes and support in Diyala Province, Iraq (Iran).”
That would have made sense in the days when our birds still had legs.
To employ birdfarms for support in Iraq you have to be in the PG.
Vs Iran: NAS.
You should look at a chart before making such comments.
Then there is the overflight issue.
You have to have permission or be at war with a country to overfly…
East Med is covered by Israel which has a larger Air Force than all CVWs in the USN combined. What they do not have the assets for is Iran. Too far away. Only 60 of their birds could reach. The USN/USAF do not have that problem.
There is no threat in Gaza/Lebanon/Syria that rates diverting assets from the primary. The USN will go thru east Med en route to Suez and the NAS.
They will not be wasted on Gaza or Syria.
PS Take a good look at the countries adjacent to Syria: All are US Friends except Lebanon which is in contention. Syria has to worry about all of its borders except Lebanon ATT. The birdfarms will be employed where they are needed and that is not East Med…
“PS Take a good look at the countries adjacent to Syria: All are US Friends except Lebanon which is in contention. Syria has to worry about all of its borders except Lebanon ATT. The birdfarms will be employed where they are needed and that is not East Med…”
Couldn’t agree more. Assad has major problems that don’t come from us, and our resources are finite. Do not forget possible negative future contingencies in North Korea, Pakistan, Somalia.
There is also a smaller but still possible negative contingency in Bangladesh.
One of the most convincing arguments the anti-war crowd has for reducing the concentration of our combat forces in Iraq is because it reduces our flexibility to deal with unexpected blow-ups around the world.
Where possible, we should facilitate actions by others (who act for their own reasons) rather than tie down our forces with long-term commitments. Allies and partners are force multipliers. (Some call it collaborating/outsourcing.)
What’s the best way to create a populace who wants a peaceable relationship with Israel, and possibly even ruled by Israel?
Just let Hamas rule for a while, with a Taliban-style draconian lifestyle. No music, no education for the women, etc. Soon enough, the people will yearn for the “good old days” of Israeli occupation.
The best way to discredit Hamas is to actually let them rule for a while. They will be most hated not by Israelis or the west, but the people of Gaza.
JMHO
I did. Its exactly where we need to be. We’ll see how it pans out.
If I’m wrong I’ll say so. here.
(anand – you’re all over the map now)
I agree with DJ Elliot. We are not going to divert our carriers to what Isreal and our forces flying out of N Iraq/Turkey will have no problem handling in Syria.
Not sure exactley what the order of the domino’s will be but when they start they will move quick maybe days or even weeks to full alt reginal warefare.
Gulf Arabs won’t be base for attack on Iran: Saudi
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070617/ts_nm/saudi_iran_dc_1
Good analysis and comments by many in here on the situation in Gaza.
I would only add this, many of these developments are happening for one reason and one reason only and the source of that is back here in the USA and not in the Middle East. As we know, the USA has the ability to crush any adversary, any time or place, but it is turbulent domestic political opinion that has thrown the question of American willpower into question (as one correspondent noted earlier). Lack of credibility and lack of leadership in Washington is emboldening Iran and others to stir the pot in the Middle East and causing many of the problems we are seeing.
While America does not instigate many of these problems, it is lack of our leadership that is destabilizing much of the Middle East. Our inability to recognize the internet as a major tool of our opponents, our inability to recognize the destructive aspects of the MSM in affecting the national mood of the people, and the ability of our enemies to use these tools against us is harming this nation to no great end. The parasites known as the terrorists feed off the fat of western culture, and then use this culture and its tolerance to perpetrate their deeds. The longer both American political parties play games with that and allow their selfserving political ambitions to exceed the goal of national security, the longer we expect Iran and other enemies to take advantage of it. Because rest assured, Iran, Al Qaeda and our other enemies know what can influence public opinion in the States, and they know damn well that is where their war with us will be won or lost, and not on the battlefield. And my friends at this point, we are losing that battle on these fronts.
Iran has fought a masterful battle plan in the western media, and many in Europe are against the USA now as part of that strategy. I have become so jaded on Europe that I would not support sending any more American troops to defend these ungrateful people, almost akin to what happened in Iraq but not exactly. I will note that most of this vitriol to the USA is centered in France, Germany, Italy and Spain.
I voted for Bush twice but he is now a polarizing ineffective president, perhaps the 2nd worst president in my lifetime only ahead of Jimmy Carter. Bush has lost control of the situation politically, and I am convinced the man is just running out the string of his 2nd term. I look forward to the next president taking a new look at this. But once more this will depend on each and every American and our ability to unite in this war being waged against us.
WK-
I think you make many very valid points in your statement (especially with the major fronts in the information war). However, I must contest that the lack of leadership in the Mid East is the problem. Leadership in and of itself does not solve anything. Leadership is a quality not a solution. And sometimes no matter how well you can craft a plan or a solution (today’s situation is not an example however), conflict cannot be resolved. This has to do with the fact (that the democrats ignore, and yes some republicans) that there has to be more than one partner genuinely willing for peace. Until you have that, there will be none for the time being. Leadership would allow the public to see that (which i think Bush has done a good job of trying to frame the debate), however, the public has turned a blind eye because our enemies are right, we (the vast majority of the public) are weak and spineless when it comes to conflict for the majority of history with a few exceptions (divine providence has most certainly kept us victorious in those). When you have a partner that seeks the other partner’s destruction, there can be no peace. Hence, the situation we are in today.
Any Syrian action would be defensive. They might attempt to provoke a Israeli attack and then hope to drag any attacking force into an attrition pit but there is no way any general in their right mind is going to engage in any kind of major offensive action out of Syria. The moment any of their stuff moves, it is going to be killed. Our technology these days would make the “Highway of Death” out of Kuwait City look like a walk in the park.
No conventional heavy force would live for more than a few minutes in attempting to attack into Israel. Any viable strategy would probably use rocket attacks to provoke Israel into a response and then keep the Israelis engaged from a thousand little rat holes.
If I were Israel, I would be building literally millions of cheap unguided rockets and any time I absorb a rocket, send a couple of thousand back in reply to the same area that launched the initial attack. That would probably put an end to things after a week or so but it would involve a lot of civilian casualties … but so be it. The other side has no concern for civilian casualties and I am not a holder of this notion that one side be held to a different standard than the other.
Chaos-
Reasonable people can disagree reasonably.
I fully expect that we will revisit this Gaza situation 3 or 4 years ago.
For several reasons, we are far more likely to try the “siege and starvation” approach than anything I have envisoned or discussed such as coopting Hamas along the lines of the Anbar Salvation Council in the fight against Al Qaeda.
My prediction varies from yours in that I am predicting enormous and unbelieveably catastrophic growth of Al Qaeda in Gaza with the siege and starvation approach.
Let’s touch base in a few years. At that time, one of us will be proved correct.
NOTE: Second line above should read:
“I fully expect that we will revisit this Gaza situation a few years from now.”
Attached is an excellent article from the Israeli newspaper Haaretz rationally discussing prospects for a Hamas government in Gaza:
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/871587.html
One key quote from the article:
“This is a force that contains all of the components that Israel always demanded from the Palestinian Authority when it was still ruled by Fatah. It is also possible to expect that Hamas will be able to impose its will on the family gangs in Gaza and thus realize another wish: unification of the Palestinian armed forces. In fact, the Hamas that now rules in Gaza is the same Hamas that preserved the hudna and later the tahadiyeh (lull).”
Just a great discussion. Far more informed that what you normally read. One of the thoughts that I have is that Al-Qaeda has simply worn out its welcome where ever it has been able to take complete control. These guys are killers and eventually they alienate the population. Al-Qaeda is unwelcome in Afghanistan. They are rapidly becoming unwelcome in Iraq. I specifically mean Anbar. This is a tremendous victory in the War on Terror. The pressure that our military has put on them has caused them to alienate their base. This is how to win the War on Terror.
Iran is a different problem. They have killed more Americans than Al-Qaeda and yet they use proxies effectively to shield Iran itself against the consequences. Despite the support of the Democratic Congressional leadership, this may not work forever. We are watching the build up to a rather large war. Remember, we allowed Hitler to have his way far too long, but ultimately he was confronted and the Nazis destroyed. Read the history of the 1930s and then the 1940s. It will have familiar ring.
Rob-
You stated that the Iranians have killed more Americans than Al Qaeda.
As a quick thumbnail estimate, let’s say al Qaeda killed 3000 American on 9/11 and are responsible for 500 deaths in Iraq.
Would you agree with that?
Assuming you do, could you please provide numerical evidence that the Iranians have killed more than 3500 Americans, especially since 9/11?
Thanks.
3 STATE SOLUTION
-This development in Gaza might actually be helpful in solving the conflict between the Palestinians and the Israelis. Now that Hamas and Fatah have officially and finally split-Israel should be able to deal with Fatah in the West Bank to create a better security situation there. The radicals have made the mistake of isolating themselves from the general Palestinian population, instead of hiding they’re sitting front and center in Gaza.
On thing that would be helpful for all parties is for an impartial third-party to take over the administration of Palestinian customs duties, a task currently held by Israel. Since this is the only source of revenue for Palestine it is quite unhelpful to have Israel manage these funds, especially since Israel keeps withholding the funds, forcing the PA to rely on international aid.
Trackbacked by The Thunder Run – Web Reconnaissance for 06/18/2007
A short recon of what’s out there that might draw your attention.
Well the world got what it wanted, a “two state solution”
Is it really possible that Hamas could even gain control of the west bank? Fatah is much stronger there. During my stay in Ramallah last month I discussed these issues with a man from Fatah’s Al Aqsa Brigades and I was told that Hamas is at about 3/4 of the militia power in Gaza, while in West Bank fatah holds that 3/4, and that is sord of what was supposed to keep Gaza somewhat in order: if Hamas destroys Fatah in Gaza, then Fatah will destroy Hamas in the West Bank, and supposedly they each know this. I was told this about a month ago. So, if this is true, then if anything, we should see Fatah destroy Hamas in the West Bank very shortly.
Hamas, as a tool of Iran, has absolutely no interest in forging a peace with Israel, or even in governing responsibly within the confines of the PA.
Hamas and Hezbollah exist for the sole benefit of Iran, and their goal is to grind down Israel with any means at their disposal – rockets and suicide bombers. Israel, by responding, gets all of the negative press and international pressure to concede to terrorist demands, whereas Hamas and hezbollah get lauded by the international press.