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The Baghdad Order Of Battle as of May 20, 2007. Click map to view. |
By DJ Elliott, CJ Radin and Bill Roggio
It’s been three months since the commencement of the Baghdad Security Plan on February 14, and the operation has been marked by both considerable progress and painful setbacks. While the violence in Baghdad has decreased to levels not seen since prior to the bombing of the Samarra mosque, al Qaeda and its allies have carried the fight into the surrounding provinces in an attempt to discredit the plan and destabilize the Iraqi government.
In the capital, al Qaeda has not staged a successful mass casualty suicide attack since May 11. Mortar and IED attacks, small arms engagements, small car bombs, and other forms of violence prevail; however, the sectarian killings that once threatened to plunge the country into a full-fledged civil war continue to remain at a low level. Al Qaeda has conducted the majority of its large-scale attacks in the provinces–Ninewa, Kirkuk, and Diyala.
The Baghdad Operational Command and Multinational Forces Baghdad continue to position their forces throughout the city. The first Iraqi Army units to enter the city on a 90-day deployment rotation are now beginning to rotate out, with new units coming in to replace them. Elements of the 2nd Brigade of the 1st Iraqi Army Division and the 2nd Brigade of the 2nd Iraqi Army Division have been spotted in the Bayaa and Doura districts. The 3rd Brigade of the 4th Iraqi Army Division has moved back to the Kirkuk region, while it appears the 4th Brigade of the 1st Iraqi Army Division has been rotated back to eastern Anbar province.
The most significant event to occur in Iraq over the weekend was the formation of the Salahadin Awakening, which opposes al Qaeda’s attempt to Talibanize Iraq and erode the traditional power of tribal leaders. Stars & Stripes reported that the Baghdad tribes met to form the front; but, in fact, the tribes represented at the meeting were mostly from Salahadin province. The meeting occurred in Taji, and tribes were present from the northern portion of Baghdad province and Salahadin. Recently, the tribes of Diyala formed the Diyala Awakening in an attempt to replicate the success of the Anbar Salvation Council, which is largely responsible for the dramatic turnaround in the security situation in that province.
The potential effect of the Salahadin Awakening became apparent early last week when Iraqi civilians in Duluiyah came to the aid of Iraqi police under attack at a checkpoint in that city. “In response to the attack, 20 armed men from a nearby neighborhood assembled and quickly came to the aid of the policemen manning checkpoint,” Multinational Forces Iraq stated. “This grass roots effort contributed a significant impact in thwarting the attack . . . local citizens also responded according to a plan they developed for neighborhood defense.”
Nine days after the ambush on a U.S. patrol in the ‘Triangle of Death’ region south of Baghdad, U.S and Iraqi Security Forces continue to search for the three missing soldiers–five others were killed in the al Qaeda attack. General David Petraeus stated on Friday that intelligence indicates at least two of the soldiers are still alive. Multinational Forces Iraq has information on the cell that conducted the attack and has captured several of its members. Raids have been carried out as far away as Amiriyah in neighboring Anbar province, where nine suspects were captured.
The U.S. military has offered a $200,000 reward for information leading to the discovery of the soldiers, and significant resources, including a Stryker battalion, two aviation battalions, and an Iraq Special Operations Forces battalion, have been diverted from Baghdad and Taji to assist with the search operations. All told, over 4,000 U.S. and 2,000 Iraqi troops have been assigned to the search operation. Task Force 145, the hunter-killer special operations teams assigned to target the al Qaeda network, has very likely been added to the mix.
Prior to its deployment to the Sunni Triangle, the battalion of 1st Iraq Special Operations Forces was tasked with targeting Mahdi Army cells in Sadr City in Baghdad. The 1st Battalion, 23rd Infantry Regiment of the 3rd Stryker Combat Brigade, 2nd Infantry Division, was previously based in the Bayaa district in southern Baghdad. The two aviation battalions, the 3rd Battalion, 227th Aviation Regiment [Blackhawk transport helicopters] and the 4th Battalion, 227th Aviation Regiment [Apache attack helicopters] from the 1st Air Cavalry Brigade of the 1st Cavalry Division were based out of Taji. The shift of the 1-23 Stryker Battalion and 1st Iraqi SOF will negatively impact operations in Baghdad, while the movement of the two aviation regiments from Taji will negatively impact operations in Salahadin and Diyala.
The Triangle of Death remains one of the most violent spots in the Baghdad belts, as al Qaeda and allied insurgent groups have established bases of operation there from which to attack targets in both Baghdad and Karbala provinces. U.S. and Iraq forces have been preparing to conduct operations in the region in support of the Baghdad Security Plan. The capture of the three American soldiers has forced Multinational Forces Iraq to change the time line and push forward operations south of Baghdad. As a result, the Triangle of Death is getting its surge early and hard, and the hunt for the missing soldiers is turning up a wealth of intelligence on al Qaeda’s network in the region.
As Iraqi and Coalition forces scour the area, the province of Diyala, where al Qaeda has established its command headquarters, has been the scene of increased activity over the past several weeks. Al Qaeda conducted a sophisticated attack in a Kurdish village at the northern edge of the province along the Iranian border, targeted a military outpost and a bank in Baqubah and employed a chlorine gas suicide attack in the town of Abu Sayadah. U.S. forces detained two al Qaeda leaders in a raid in the city, while the general commanding the 5th Iraqi Army Division was relieved of his command.
Recent moves by al Qaeda, as well as by U.S. and Iraqi forces, likely indicate that the Diyala Campaign is coming, and soon. The Iraqi military, which plans to add an unspecified number of troops to the province along with at least one additional U.S. combat brigade, is installing more reliable commanders prior to opening up the new offensive. Competent leadership in the Iraqi Army is required to coordinate efforts with the newly created the Diyala Awakening, the grouping of anti-al Qaeda tribal, religious, and political figures, as the tribal and ethnic dynamics are far more complex in Diyala as they are in Anbar province.
Al Qaeda wants to maintain the pressure on U.S. and Iraqi Security Forces and keep the political and media pressure on the American government. Al Qaeda is also attempting to maintain its base of operations in Diyala, which serves as a launch point for attacks into Baghdad. The operation on the Iranian border may also be a sign the terror group is attempting to secure a fall back position. The U.S. and Iraq military are working to cordon the province to prevent al Qaeda from escaping and to create a kill box or remaining enemy forces. Al Qaeda may be attempting to secure their exit into Iran.
The northern region has seen a recent spike in activity, as a significant number of Iraqi Army units have deployed to Baghdad in support of the surge. On May 16, over 200 al Qaeda attacked a police station in Mosul. Fifteen terrorists and four police were killed in the battle. Also, al Qaeda attacked and destroyed two bridges in Mosul in a coordinated suicide car bomb attack. These are the sixth and seventh bridges hit over the past two months. In Kirkuk, al Qaeda conducted a series of attacks that targeted municipal leaders, police, a school, and a health center. Despite the increase in al Qaeda attacks, Iraqi Army and police units have held their ground.
After a long lull in al Qaeda’s chemical attacks, the terror group launched two successful chlorine gas suicide attacks–the tenth and eleventh such attacks in Iraq this year. The previously mentioned attack in Abu Sayadah in Diyala province resulted in 45 killed and 60 wounded or poisoned. Last weekend, al Qaeda conducted another such attack against a police checkpoint in the town of Zangoura, north of Ramadi. Eleven police and civilians were treated for chlorine poisoning.
On the Iranian front, Multinational Forces Iraq killed a major player in the January 20 kidnapping and murder of five American soldiers during a complex attack on the Provincial Joint Coordination Center in Karbala. On May 19, Coalition forces killed Azhar al-Dulaimi during a raid north of Baghdad. Azhar al-Dulaimi is described as the “mastermind” and “tactical commander” of the Karbala attack and is known to have been a key player in numerous other high-profile terror attacks in Iraq. He was a major figure in the Iranian-supported Qazali network. “Intelligence reports indicate Dulaimi received military training from Iranian intelligence agents and from Lebanese Hezbollah, to include training on how to conduct terrorist-style kidnapping,” according to the Department of Defense.
U.S. forces continue to dismantle Iranian-backed networks, which smuggle weapons into the country from Iran, including the dangerous armor piercing explosively formed penetrators, or EFPs, and facilitate the movement of fighters between Iran and Iraq. Coalition forces dismantled yet another EFP cell last week. This was the sixth such raid on that particular network in less than two weeks, with 13 members of the EFP cell killed and 29 captured.
The United States Army still has one more combat brigade to throw into the fight, and Baghdad has not yet been fully cleared. The last brigade is scheduled to begin its deployment into Iraq in early June. As the Iraqi summer heats up, the intensity of the fighting in Diyala, eastern Anbar, and the Triangle of Death, as well as inside Baghdad, will only increase.
20 Comments
I always enjoy the great insights of everyone that posts here at The Fourth Rail – Bill’s got one of the best blogs I’ve ever run across and he is blessed to have so many knowledgeable posters/commenters frequent this site. So, as a real novice, I thank all of you.
Now, I wanted to just throw this out – it is a real fear of mine, almost a premonition if I was prone to those.
I’ve read some disturbing reports of Iran perhaps becoming more and more linked to Al Qaeda in Iraq – both from a support side as well as a planning side.
So here is my concern – that the Diyala Offensive that U.S. and Iraqi forces are gearing up for is going to be a trap. Originally, i think the U.S. military commanders viewed Diyala as a real opportunity for them to “box in” Al Qaeda – with the Iranian border being the back stop for a killing field. My concern is that at that Iranian border, when it looks like we have Al Qaeda in that box, the U.S. forces may be sucked into a full offensive coming from Iran by Iranian Revolutionary Guards along with Al Qaeda. It could be devastating and if the U.S. is unprepared and hasn’t watched it’s flank, it could be a nightmare.
I’m sure the Iranians would have a “canned” response that U.S. forces had breached the border following Al Qaeda and that Iran was only defending their land – heck, if they can lie about the coordinates of a British naval vessel, they can do the same regarding U.S. armor and troops.
Am I totally off mark here? Is this, hopefully, my imagination run rampant? Feedback would be appreciated.
Unlikely.
Iran fought Saddam for eight years and was losing at the end. We beat Saddam’s army in how many days?
The Persians are not that stupid. They can’t win a conventional fight and they know it. That is why they are using surogates to fight US in Iraq. Asymetrical warfare.
The hard part is that the Persians cannot afford to be caught. The Arab-Persian fight is an old one and predates Islam. If AQ can be linked with hard evidence to Iran, both will be discredited where it counts.
That is why we are pushing them into that corner. If AQ runs to Iran, their entire cause would be discredited. Arab Sunni radicals running to the Persian Shia…
DJ,
Thanks so much. That response of yours is exactly why I come to this blog. I do appreciate your insights.
I was struck when reading your analysis of the search for the kidnapped American soldiers:
Aren’t you in fact explaining the reason for the kidnapping and showing it to have been successful? Kidnap soldiers and you completely disarrange American battle plans and deeply undercut the whole purpose of the surge, which after all was not to scour around Iraq looking for a couple of soldiers.
I imagine we will never find them… Why shouldn’t they be in Iran?
Do you have any concern that publishing an Order of Battle (however suppositional) might help the enemy? I realize that an insurgency might not need our help with that, as they’re seeing the troops on the ground, but helping their leaders (in and out of country) with the overview seems problematic.
Yeah, the search for the kidnapped American soldiers is a bit strange. Where is the evidence that proves they are even still alive? Sending 3,000 soldiers to comb through empty fields kind of plays into al Qaeda hands, don’t you think? We need every last soldier sticking to the plan, not going out on some 1 in a million rescue mission.
Paul Foraker,
In defence of CJ, Bill and DJ, they are very careful not to release any classified or sensitive information. Everything you see comes from public releases by MNF-I or the Pentagon. All they do is compile.
They serve a great purpose. Many Iraqis draw a lot of pride from their security forces . . . forces they wouldn’t know nearly as much about if not for this site and sites like it. It also boosts the morale of our troops . . . to know that in most of the country Iraqis are standing up and sacrificing for their own country with some success.
Finally, it boosts support for the mission back home, to know that Iraqis are carrying their own weight in this fight.
All three are needed for victory in Iraq.
I am sure I speak on behalf of the large majority of readers here at the “Fourth Rail” when I say congratulations to DJ, CJ and Bill for all their hard and essential work.
– Paul Foraker: Your statement is based in the false premis that the data is not already publicaly available. It is publicaly available and most of it is from US Military Press releases. If they do not want the enemy to have it then they need to use some basic OPSEC. Since they insist on releasing this level of detail, they must want to advertise…
http://billroggio.com/archives/2007/05/opsec_the_oobs_and_t.php
– Dave, Jeff: Clearing out the Triangle of Death has been planned for some time now. All this search did was move up the schedule, provide the US/Iraqi troops with additional motivation and cause a situation of tactical surprise for the enemy. Then there is the moral factor: You never abandon your troops. You never give the enemy a free victory. You always make them work for every victory.
In a Low Intesity Conflict like this, moral and propaganda are 90% of the fight. Abandoning troops would be giving the enemy a free victory. It would indicate we had lost our professionalism. That we were giving up. That is what you are sudgesting…
moral and propaganda are 90% of the fight.
And very little is done to keep up moral on the home front or to counter the propaganda the folks back home are exposed to 24/7/365, resulting in partial regime change in America and polls claiming that 2/3 of the domestic target audience think the war is lost.
Notice the source of this graphic at bottom right.
http://www.usnews.com/usnews/images/news/graphics/Baghdad_dist_map.gif
http://www.usnews.com/usnews/news/articles/070520/28petraeus.b.htm
The JSS’ are Bn(+) positions and the COPs are Co(+) positions. This is the level of detail released to the press by DoD. Company and Battalion level (sometimes platoon level).
DJ, Anand,
You can string five unclassified sentences together and make a Secret paragraph. After all, Puzzle Palace was written with material that was publically available and nevertheless compromised certain aspects of the NSA’s operations. We’ve had the OpSec discussion before, and I am grateful that I can find this information on Bill’s blog, but I still think that because CentCom is not that good at OpSec doesn’t mean that some circumspection might not be in order.
Andrew,
Until someone points to something specific in either the Iraqi Security Forces OOB or the Baghdad Security Operation OOB that actually violates OPSEC, I’m unconvinced. Just saying this appears to be dangerous doesn’t make it so. I speak to military and intelligence officers about this topic, and they have not voiced concerns about putting the OOBs together. We’ve been contacted by two lower ranking officers who voiced their concerns, but when we stated our case, they either withdrew the complaint or stopped talking to us.
As DJ stated, the military obviously wants this information out there, or they wouldn’t be releasing it as they do.
We (DJ specifically) take great care to keep the data at the brigade/battalion level at the lowest. To think the enemy isn’t compiling this information at a more specific level would be wrong. We know they do it. Just like they use Google Earth and other tools.
“After all, Puzzle Palace was written with material that was publically available and nevertheless compromised certain aspects of the NSA’s operations.”
– As someone that is still forbiden by law from confirming or denying the accuracy or inaccuracy of that book, I can only take it that you THINK that it is accurate.
– After all, those that KNOW would be commiting a felony (“Knowing and willing compromise of classified information”) by making such a statement.
The data in the OOB is all open source and released.
The military has chosen to advertise it.
How accurate the OOB is depends on the accuracy of those releases.
If they want to conduct OPDEC, they would use those same releases to give a skewed picture.
They could do that without providing false data…
Of note: OPSEC has noticably tightened in some areas of Baghdad, MND-N and MND-C since we started publishing OOBs. I look at the OOBs as a practical way to notify the bosses where their leaks are…
DJ,
It’s been going on eight years now since I last saw the inside of a SCIF, so I’m definitely going by my own foggy memory, but ISTR that the classified that appeared in PP was stuff that the government had unintentionally released elsewhere. But perhaps we ought to continue this conversation in sixty years…
Bill,
Yeah, I know. It’s really just a reflexive twitch on my part.
Bill,
Thank you for the great work your doing.
Some suggestions for your map:
1) You use blue and purple for different kinds of outposts. Red and blue would be easier to distinguish.
2) What does the “Q” after some Iraqi units stand for?
Al
Frozen Al
I forgot to put the definition of (Q) in.
Quicklook Phase II graduates.
Those are the INP Bdes that have been thru the re-screening (purge), re-training and re-blueing at Numaniyah…
Based upon facts and conjecture, do US and Iraqi intelligence know where the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and/or Iranian intelligence are training the terrorists and where the EFP’s are being produced in Iran?
Trackbacked by The Thunder Run – Web Reconnaissance for 05/22/2007
A short recon of what’s out there that might draw your attention.
By putting open source info out there yet again, such as the OOB, it makes it even easier for the enemies of our nation to gain this information and it gives it more importance in their eyes. OPSEC is something that we all have to take into account. Whether or not someone else does it is irrelevant. Most of the information that insurgents/terrorists use to hurt/kill us are from open sources… so why put yourself, and your blog among those that practice poor OPSEC. Lets face it, the OOB IS sensitive information! Therefore you should protect it, even when others don’t. Remember there are those out there that read this post that aren’t friendly to us… so be careful what you say. If you are military, or a government employee, the new AR 530-1 makes OPSEC compromises punishable under the UCMJ, or similar for contractors.
Robert M.
Tell that to the LTG commanding MNC-I…
http://www.defenselink.mil/dodcmsshare/briefingslide/305/070531-D-6570C-001.pdf
http://www.defenselink.mil//transcripts/transcript.aspx?transcriptid=3973
Notice the differences between what he published and what the open sources indicated on our map. It was nice of the General to do my job for me this week. Are you going to tell the General what you post here? Somehow, I doubt that.
None of the authors here are currently under the UCMJ and we are not in Iraq. This info is what MNF-I and its subordinates are publicaly saying is there.
Any compentent intel collector already has this data and more. Curtisy of the US Military PAOs and Commanders.
http://billroggio.com/archives/2007/05/opsec_the_oobs_and_t.php