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From The Jawa Report: U.S. soldiers capture flag of al Qaeda’s Islamic State of Iraq in a village in Diyala. Click image to view. |
I’ve reviewed Bing West’s latest report from Iraq, which was posted at the invaluable Small Wars Journal. I had the honor of embedding with Bing’s son, Major Owen West, for one week late last January in the Khalidiya region. Bing West’s observations on the state of the Iraqi Army and police, both challenges and setbacks, largely mirror my own. He also makes several recommendations for moving forward, but only considers Baghdad and Anbar province as the major centers of gravity in Iraq. Here is where I disagree. While Baghdad and Anbar province are vital to success, securing both the Baghdad “belts” and Diyala are integral to the security effort, and the absence of these two theaters in his report is a glaring omission.
15 Comments
interesting view-however in all aspects of Counter Insurgency a reliance on a zone or sector of influence with regards to “winning the war” is sadly mistaken, especially in considerations of a democracy. Both excel only when the people as a whole unite, regardless of tribe, religion, zone, or area. Concentrating military forces in a area is unsuspect-the military operates where the enemy is, diplomacy operates always and democracy prevails with the use of both. The difficult is to use both at the same time and planning on when where and how is only a small percentage in the success, while sustaining it is for the masters. Almost like gangerine vs antibiotics who wins? who prevails? who is more adaptive. Rudyard Kipling once said “that we play mans never ending game” even chess has an outcome. I prefer to tip the King. then to bow to a queen.
Respectfully Submitted,
GySgt Strong
I would agree with you Bill, as terrorists move around it’s up to the military to be ready to respond to their mobility.
It’s already being demonstrated time and again when Iraqi and coalition forces close in on terrorist holdings movement occurs.
West doesn’t expound on the issues of clear and hold, which will keep al-Qaeda and other insurgents on the move to what they feel are safe opportunities to wreak havoc.
Lisa,
Calm down. Zawahiri, bin Laden, all of these guys are on the run daily, living in caves, hiding in fear of their lives.
Do you remember “Baghdad Bob” when our forces invaded Iraq? All the Media listened to him rant like a lunatic saying Iraqi forces were winning at the very moment our forces entered Baghdad and toppled Saddams statue.
These radicals rant with much hot air and brave words, but in truth they have little power, are in constant hiding, constant fear of capture, and the attrition rates are very high both in Afghanistan and Iraq. They’re so desperate in some cases they’re using children.
There are multiple heads of the dragon as well. Remember that Sadr met in Damascus with Bashar and announced his support of Syria/Iran axis of evil. People can mock and scoff Bush, our military all they want. Truth is the strategy cut straight into the heart of the beast.
http://rapidrecon.threatswatch.org/2006/02/muqtada-alsadr-at-the-service/
I remember this meeting, seeing the Presidents of Syria/Iran together, plus other faces and reportings of Al Qaeda deputies in the area. What is happening here is the exposing of tyrants, criminal mafioso types and terrorist all linking together in fear. We took out one big head in Saddam, his two sons, many other leaders.
But there are multiple heads from Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Palestine, Iran, Syria, and the terrorist in Warziristan/Pakistan, Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. You cannot put your thumb on any one leader, because it is the entire radicalized forces of the firebrand clerics of Islam.
There are very important developments taking place if you keep reading the reports. The Anbar Awakening is real and turning into a political force which is very important. There are clerics who have banded together against the violence recently too. We’re seeing a fight for the heart and soul of muslims. We need to protect the moderates as much as possible as they build their military forces both in Iraq/Afghanistan and areas like Somalia, Phillipines, etc. This is global, around the world. We’re focused on Iraq, but Bill was way ahead looking at problems in Pakistan. So its not as if our military and intel are not on these issues. They’re in the thick of it every day.
At the end of the day, what is happening in Iraq is very important. Yes, it is a trap, but for the terrorist as each one is rounded up, captured or killed and we gather human intel on vast networks with names, connections, places of finance into all these regional governments around the area. This is a long war regardless of what some in Congress may say. It will not end in Iraq, this is only the beginning.
Riedel’s recent article on al Qaeda cited in this discussion ( http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20070501faessay86304/bruce-riedel/al-qaeda-strikes-back.html ) appeared in the most recent issue of Foreign Affairs magazine, published by the Council on Foreign Relations. From my understanding, this magazine and this organization is highly respected by neoconservatives.
He makes explicit warning of a clear danger of what may well be the next phase of AQ operations in Iraq.
That being that they may well be planning a massive “false flag” attack on US forces in Iraq and pinning the blame on Iran.
By provoking a massive military response against Iran, AQ will have weakened one of their greatest enemies and further dragged the US into a difficult situation in the Middle East.
This is not necessarily my view, but it is noteworthy, because it comes from a source highly respected in neocon circles. Therefore we know this is not liberal gibberish.
Here is an interesting quote by Michael Tanji, former intel…
“Saying Iraq is a diversion in our campaign to dismantle al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups is like saying the campaign in the Pacific endangered our ability to defeat the Nazis. The war against terrorism is global, multi-faceted, and inexorably inter-linked to myriad nations, groups and individuals – anyone who can lend a hand. If September 11th and the years that have followed have taught us anything it is the depth, power and resilience of these networked organizations. If anything encumbers our ability to defeat the enemy, it is our strategy of fighting a network with an org chart.”
I think it sums of reality thta we are in a global conflict. The heads are from any rogue state, tyrant or king. Sudan for example allowed bin Laden to stay there. Sudanese, Egyptians, Saudis, Syrians, Iranians, all flow into Iraq to blow themselves up along with innocent Iraqis. We’re fighting both a viral hateful ideology, as well as entrenched tyrannical leaders who fear a freely elected government that answers to the people, that gives liberty and freedom of speech, human rights and equality across all barriers.
I think Bill’s summary at the end wraps it up well with multiple issues…
“The Diyala Campaign… is a vital component of General David Petraeus’ strategy to secure Baghdad and greater Iraq.”
Bill discusses the Diyala campaign to come.
Petraeus has made great headway with Anbar Awakening and the direction appears to me to drive home the point of feeding al Qaeda into a corner. And what is significant is the following quote he snips from Bing West…
“Iran’s influence is malign. Probably in reaction to accepting in 2002 intelligence assessments about Iraq that proved false, the press has bent over backward not to link the central government of Iran with explosive devices, money transfers and Iranian agents active inside Iraq. I was surprised how frequently both Iraqi officials and American officers told me that Iran was in essence waging a proxy war against the US. Whatever the extent of its actual influence over and through the Shiite militias, Iran is widely perceived as a malign influence and the US has found no strategy to compel Iran to desist.”
Now, go back to my above post where Steve Schippert at Threatswatch points out the meeting of Syria/Iran/Sadr. And when I saw the reports, I remember mention of al Qaeda lower level deputies in Syria at the time.
What is happening here, in my opinion, is the unraveling and exposing of networks all over the region. Petraeus plan is both military/political and cuts off al Qaeda, along with Iranian influence in the region. None of this is easy of course, but it is extremely important.
Also, forgot the link to Michael Tanji’s quote at Threatswatch which is a good read and well written response to a Richard Clarkes usual defensive stance…
http://commentary.threatswatch.org/2007/05/kicking-the-puppy/
All this ties in together. Bill’s report on Petraeus, the linking of forces against us, as well as our global fight. We had so little human intel prior to Iraq/Afghanistan and now we have so much more insight. The al Qaeda suicide bombers garner media attention, much like a murder in LA every single night. But like all law enforcement, quietly behind the scenes, evidence, intel, networks, informants are being established, raids are made, battles are fought. Sometime large campaigns are launched as our forces set the scene, mold it and manipulate it to our advantage.
I respect the views of Donald Rumsfeld. He was not a liberal and he is not stupid. I think his views should be respected.
Donald Rumsfeld stated that we need to establish a series of quantifiable measurements to be sure that our policies were not creating more terrorists faster than we could kill them.
This was Rumsfeld’s position. He is not a socialist.
Furthermore, Rumsfeld ordered an interagency group to begin establishing a series of quantifiable metrics to carry out this inquiry as to whether our policies were creating more terrorists faster than we could kill them.
This was Rumsfeld’s view.
I have a question someone may be able to answer.
I don’t have much information on what is going on in Anbar north of the Euphrates river between Fallujah and Hit than up to lake Tharther. Almost all the news I here is about the south side of the river. I occasionally hear about a raid in this area but don’t know much about it. If anyone can has a little history on what has been going on, I am curious about the status of the area.
“He said look at their latest video and the sophistication of it implies they have more than one generally thinks of. Such as they have a split screen and translation into english. ”
To do this with todays computers is so simple a teen can do it (they do). This is not anything special a couple thousand dollars and away we go.. This also can be “outsourced” very easily to someone even in the states to compile and send back for distibution.
The part I dont get is this, they hate us and our society yet they cant live without the technology stuff etc. we produce and sell them!
BobK,
“The part I dont get is this, they hate us and our society yet they cant live without the technology stuff etc. we produce and sell them!”
You are assuming the “religious wrapping” AQI puts around everything is the ends…rather than the means.
“For God and Country” has been a battle cry for for 1,000’s of years. AlQueda doesn’t have a country.
BobK, there is actually an answer to your question as to why these terrorists who hate Western society so much use modern technology to espouse their views.
Professor Uriya Shavit is a professor at Tel Aviv University who wrote an essential article in Middle East Quarterly (a magazine deeply sympathetic to neoconservative ideals) entitled “Al-Qaeda’s Saudi Origins”. A must read at:
http://www.meforum.org/article/999
In it he points out a critical difference between the Salafists and the Wahhabis. He states:
“Salafism refers to a school of thought developed in Egypt in the late 19th century that called for a return to the origins of Islam with the scientific and technological aspects of modernity.
[By contrast], Wahhabism is a Saudi puritan school which, in its idealization of the time of Muhammad, also rejects scientific and technical aspects of modernity.”
This is mainstream neoconservative thinking from a highly respected neoconservative publication.
Unfortunately far too many “experts” fail to understand this distinction between Wahhabis and Salafists drawn here by a prominent neocon.
Bill – I don’t think that West intentially gives Diyala short shrift. I surmise that the emphasis on Baghdad and Anbar arises from the fact that these are the two areas he visited. Certainly Diyala and Babil play a huge role in what goes on in Baghdad.
West’s reference to ‘ethnic cleansing in and around Bagdhad’ in his first of three battlefield conditions that must be met by the end of 07 must include these areas as well to the extent that they either support rat lines of insurgent activity into Baghdad or serve as alternate areas of operation when Baghdad is denied to them.
Lisa,
Literally and metaphorically, Taliban and al Qaeda has been hiding in caves ever since we removed them from power in Afghanistan. We blew up these caves, the weapons stored in them. Yes, they hid in the mountanous ravines of Torah Borah and to this day they try to pass in the night thru the mountains. Pakistan for whatever reasons has made the mistake of signing “peace treaties” with the tribal regions.
As to their sophistication, you can buy Microsoft for $5 bucks in Russia. Photoshop was more at $10. I was tempted to purchase it at those rates. What do you think software goes for in Pakistan? Video software to cut overlays and translations is downloadable, freeware in many cases, certainly, much of it blackmarket. The blackmarket exist everywhere outside our country in case you’re not aware. A teen as BobK said, can do it.
Leaving Iraq is no solution. It will only create chaos, more dead, more terrorist safehavens surely, and destablize the entire region, not to mention possible genocide.
You want to take all our troops and put them where, in Waziristan? You cannot do this without Pakistan approval. How are you going to get it? Attack Musharraf?
The reality is both Zawahiri and bin Laden, plus all their thugs have made Iraq the battleground and we should not run away from them. To do so would give them the victory they are claiming already after some comments of our leaders recently. We need to face them now.
Otherwise, like Chamberlain, we are doomed to face them later and at much higher cost.
Michael,
Al Aaeda & the Taliban leadership aren’t in caves, that is a fallacy. I suggest you browse through “The Fall of Waziristan” linked in the left sidebar and reassess the situation.
Eric,
Diyala is a primary battlefield. AQI has set up its command and control nodes, and fortified Diyala. Bing specifically says “the two primary battlefields” are Anbar province and Baghdad. Ethnic cleansing is the least of our problems in Diyala.
While I’m sure he didn’t intentionally omit Diyala, if he’s going to make a bold pronouncement on a path forward, he’s remiss for not mentioning it. You don’t have to go there to know its one of the three primary theaters in Iraq.
Eric,
I agree with Bill with one clarification (that I think Bill would perhaps agree with). Ethnic cleansing in Diyala matters. Because it gives Iran an excuse to boost aid to Mahdi and unleash them on Sunni Arab civilians. Ethnic cleansing in Diyala also stirs a lot of emotion in the Sunni Arab world outside Iraq. Diyala is the most ethnically diverse province in Iraq that has a plurality of sunni arabs.
That is why ethnic cleansing and sectarian warfare in Diyala risks igniting a broader middle east war. It also makes it harder for political reconciliation and cooperation in Iraq’s national assembly.
Having said this, Bill is right that extreme takfiri/jihadi terrorism is the most dangerous threat . . . because terrorism directed against Iraqi population centers is the primary trigger for sectarian violence in Iraq.
Bill’s right that Diyala is now the primary base for Al-Qaeda linked networks in Iraq. It is also, along with Baghdad, is the most important front in Iraq. Unlike Baghdad, which has experienced significant recent improvement, Diyala continues to deteriorate and is quickly becoming per capita the most dangerous province in Iraq. Both the ISF and US Army in Diyala need reinforcements.
Michael,
Some powerful elements in Pakistan significantly back the Taliban and Al-Qaeda linked networks. Other powerful elements in Pakistan are in mortal combat with Al-Qaeda linked networks and the Taliban. Both are true, hence the confusion over how to deal with Pakistan.
Some Taliban and Al-Qaeda linked leadership operate from Pakistan’s main urban hubs. Remember that many high tech companies (including offshore operations by major US tech companies) have considerable operations in Pakistan’s urban hubs. In terms of human and technology infrastructure, some Taliban and Al-Qaeda leadership are resource comparable to our infrastructure in Silicon Valley, Silicon Hills in Texas, or Route 128 in Massachusetts.
There are “NO” good solutions to the Pakistan problem.