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The provinces of Iraq. Click map to view. |
A pro government tribal leader is targeted in Babil; the four provinces around Baghdad have established an Awakening movement
The formation of the regional Awakening movements–the groupings of anti-al Qaeda tribes, community leaders, and insurgent groups–threatens to stymie al Qaeda in the largely Sunni regions of Iraq. Al Qaeda has targeted the leaders of the Awakening movements in Anbar, Diyala and Salahadin provinces, and has now taken a shot at the newly minted Awakening movement in Babil province.
Military and intelligence sources have informed us that the formation of the Babil Awakening is underway, however there was little information to confirm this via open source. Omar Fadhil, one of the two authors of Iraq the Model, informed me today that he has seen reporting on the formation of a Babil Awakening in the local Iraqi press. Also, the Kuwaiti News Agency provided confirmation today when it reported an assassination attempt on Sheikh Obeid Al-Masoudi, the chief of the Al-Masoudi clan in the city of the Iskandaria. “Unknown gunmen” stormed Al-Masoudi’s home, and “targeted him and his wife with volleys of automatic gunfire.” He and his wife are reported to be in critical condition.
“Sheikh Al-Masoudi has recently established an alliance with several tribes in Babel Governate, south of Baghdad, reminiscent to the pro-government tribal alliance in the province of Al-Anbar, west of the Iraqi capital,” KUNA reported. “He, along with other tribal chiefs, signed an accord prohibiting spilling of Iraqi blood, rejecting any breach of person’s honor and barring aid to insurgents. They have also prohibited attacks on religious sites and supported the government’s national [reconciliation] process.”
Today’s attack on the leader of the Babil Awakening follows an assassination attempt on Sheikh Hamad al-Hasan, the leader of the Salahadin Salvation Council, on Tuesday. Four of his family members were killed in the attack.
Awakening movements have now been effectively established in the four provinces surrounding Baghdad. The Government of Iraq is funding the military arm of the movements, and incorporating the local tribal forces into provincial police forces. This movement is an integral part of the attempt to secure Baghdad and the outlying belts, where al Qaeda and Sunni insurgents have established networks from which they launch deadly suicide attacks inside the capital. The movements in Babil, Diyala, and Salahadin are still in their infancy, and the Iraqi government and Multinational Forces Iraq must take care to protect their leaders and support their efforts in the military, political, economic, and reconstruction spheres.
9 Comments
Bill/DJ
This interesting news. Also, the report of “showdown” in Dilaya is intersting.
What % of Bagdad is secured/ in the process of getting secured?
What % of Abnar is secured?
Will the Dilaya offensive wait until these areas are secured? Are the Awakenings part of the coming offensive?
After Dilaya, where do the jihadis try to re-constitute?
Anti-Herman
What % of Bagdad is secured/ in the process of getting secured?
– In the east they are still working thru Sadr City. Adhamiyah/Rusafa/Karadah are cleared. New Baghdad next.
– In the west they are down to Rasheed. West has been cleared and east (Doura) in-progress.
What % of Abnar is secured?
– Good question. I have not been able to get a read on Rutbah Dist. Rest is in contention. With Ramadi down to only 20% of the incidents they had in Dec, moving allong but still WIP.
Will the Dilaya offensive wait until these areas are secured? Are the Awakenings part of the coming offensive?
– No and Yes.
— No because we need to maintain the momentum.
— Yes because a Counter-insergency is more political than military. The Awakenings put a local face on these ops.
Diyala is already in prep to kick off.
The second wave of IA deployers to Baghdad is smaller than first wave because elements are going to Diyala after Besmaya time.
Other elements are already redeploying out from Baghdad to work these Belts.
North Babil appears to primary at first.
After Dilaya, where do the jihadis try to re-constitute?
They will not go to the south.
They will have been driven out of the west.
And the IA is standing up a new additional Division to the north.
That leaves east-Persia…
Thanks DJ
This site is the best example of what the web should be!!
A few questions…
How democratic is the tribal council system?
If these are unelected bodies, how does US or Iraq governments legitimately support their military, political, and economic activities?
Is the description “military arm of the movements” the same as militia?
Considering tribal/secretarian militias (not Al-Qaeda) pose the greatest threat to US-Iraq Governement as well as to everyday Iraq citizens, what are the potential risks involved in supporting these non-governmental groups?
FYI – From today’s MNC-I Brief.
http://www.defenselink.mil/dodcmsshare/briefingslide/305/070531-D-6570C-001.pdf
Notice where the INP Bdes are moving to:
– 1 NP Mech – Taji where they can move to Diyala. Possibly working with IA 2-9 Tank and 3-9 Tank (US 4-2SBCT is also supplying from there for Baqubah ops).
– 1 and 3 NP – South Baghdad Province on Border with Diyala. With 4-6 IA Bde to the west of them working with US 2-10IBCT. (Note that the new arriving US 2-3IBCT and 3CAB are both going south as well.)
How democratic is the tribal council system?
– The tribe is a grouping of clans which is extended family. How democratic is your family?
If these are unelected bodies, how does US or Iraq governments legitimately support their military, political, and economic activities?
– Is your family or group part of the local govt? Are some of them employed by the govt? Any of them police? Do they still get together? Is your family get-togethers illegal? Does the USG hunt you for being an illegal Family? Is your family a militia?
Is the description “military arm of the movements” the same as militia?
– The MoI is screening the volunteers and sending them to IP Academies. They are legal Officers of the law. Under the command of the Province Chief of Police. Others are being recruited for Army. Also screened. Pending that the Police Auxilleries are supervised and lead by IP Officers. Just like your local sherrif deputising a posse for an event. That is what Auxillery Police is…
Considering tribal/secretarian militias (not Al-Qaeda) pose the greatest threat to US-Iraq Governement as well as to everyday Iraq citizens, what are the potential risks involved in supporting these non-governmental groups?
– Tribal = extended family. That factor exists everywhere in the world and is a factor in your township’s govt.
– Sectarian = religious belief. That factor is also around but, is not as strong as the tribal in Iraq.
– Those are seperate and distinctly different factors. Many tribes in Iraq are mixed-sects.
– Those are not the primary threats. The radicals that want to play off of those divisions are the threat.
These “Awakenings” are groupings of tribes and by grouping together and establishing councils they reduce the threat. Sectarian/Tribal violence is when groups fight each other over their differences vice when they get together and settle problems in coucil.
Think of the “Awakenings” as city/county/state councils.
And think of AQ/JAM as criminal street gangs.
The criminal wants chaos and violence to gain power. The councils want peace to build and are fighting the criminals.
You are consistently taking the side of the criminal in your word choise for your questions. Why do you hate the police?
I dont know if they would accept our help but it is very important that the nationalist insurgent groups win these fights. Does any one have any idea who won today? It is good in the short term if these groups are fighting but a disaster in the long term if the ISI wins. I remember Bill reporting that the ISI and the 20s revolution brigades fought it out in abu gharaib a few months back but that the ISI won when the 20s ran out of ammo. The ISI is trying to consolidate all the insurgents under its banner and we cannot let that happen.
Anti-Herman, today in our “News, Opinions, Blogs” section Bill just posted a very thought-provoking article on what frameworks are appropriate for further analysis of the Iraq Conflict titled “Plan B in Iraq – Beyond the Surge: Keeping the Military Relevant in An Asymmetric World” by an active duty Special Forces officer who will be teaching at West Point soon.
You can also access it at:
http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2007/05/plan-b-in-iraq/
Highly recommended and I think you might appreciate his analytical framework.
Girding the Belt around Baghdad:
Local anti al-Qaeda organizations, called Awakening Movements, have been organized in the four provinces surrounding Baghdad. Al-Qaeda responds by targeting the tribal leaders. Bill Roggio describes the war for the grassroots….