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The remains of a bus destroyed in Zahedan, southeastern Iran. 18 IRGC soldiers were killed. (AP Photo). Click photo to view. |
A bomb killed 18 IRGC soldiers in Iran, Mahdi Army continues to be targeted
While the U.S. military and intelligence proceeds cautiously on exposing Iran’s involvement in Iraq’s insurgency, and treads carefully on exposing Muqtada al-Sadr’s backing of the Shia death squads, a war is being fought in the shadows – a war which we only see glimpses of. The war has escalated enough that Muqtada al-Sadr has left Iraq for safe environs in Iran. Sadr’s aides claim he is still in Iraq but laying low due to the religious month, but American military officials maintain Sadr is indeed in Iran.
Over the past 24 hours, two events demonstrate how the war between the U.S., and Iran and Sadr has escalated. In Iran,18 members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps were killed when the bus transporting them was blown up in a car bombing. The Iranians are pointing the blame at “insurgents and elements of insecurity,” particularly drug dealers. While there is no indication the U.S. was behind this attack, the nature of the target (IRGC soldiers, of which Qods Forces is a subset of), the mode of attack (a carbomb, like those used in Iraq) and the timing (during heightened tensions with Iran over their supplying weapons to the Iraqi insurgency) sends a powerful message to the Iranian government.
Coalition forces also are maintaining the pressure on Sadr, and a working to dismantle the Mahdi Army from underneath him while he is in Iran. In Baghdad, two more operatives of Jaish al-Mahdi, or the Mahdi Army, were detained over the past 24 hours. Iraqi Special Forces captured a “weapons supplier and financier of sectarian violence conducted by rogue Jaysh Al Mahdi cells,” along with “an additional person for questioning.” Another Mahdi cell member who is “believed responsible for kidnapping, torture and murder of Iraqi citizens and security forces in the area” was captured by Iraqi Special Forces.
This follows months of pressure on Iran and Sadr, which includes capturing Qods Force agents in Baghdad and Irbil, exposing Iran’s supplying of weapons to the insurgency, and months of operations against Sadr’s Mahdi Army in Baghdad and southern Iraq.
23 Comments
If the Iranian “insurgents” were really drug smugglers, then why did they go after the IRG instead of hitting the Border Patrol types?
You know, the border cops who are supposed to be so tough they get all of those 50 cal sniper rifles, but give them away to Iraqis…
I suspect the Iranian bombing was conducted by the Baluchi insurgency, which seems to be another Taliban spinoff. What goes around comes around. May they both lose.
Bill
The plot has thickened considerably in the last week and we are rapidly moving into areas of this conflict(Iran/afghan relations; Iran/Pakistan relations; the 3 border Iran/Pakistan/Afghan area) where I and most of your readers are not very well educated. Nevertheless, these appear to be important, and interconnected developments. War in the shadows is an apt description, and it raises a number of questions.
Questions: Are these developments concerning Iran activities that have been going on for some time, and have just now come to our attention?
Or has Iran changed their strategy concerning the actors in the region? Or has Iran’s internal and external enemies changed strategies? Or both?
We need someone with a background in this area to put this into context.
Michael Ledeen is speculating this attack may be a product of the power struggle between Rafsajani & Ahmedinejad over who succeeds Khamenei.
CBS: “Lawmakers and officials linked to al-Sadr quickly denied that he had left the country, with one saying the cleric had met with government officials late Tuesday in the Shiite holy city of Najaf.’
So is he in Iran, or isn’t he? It’s still all a bit clouded. It may be worth considering alternative evidence.
Trackbacked by The Thunder Run – Web Reconnaissance for 02/15/2007
A short recon of what’s out there that might draw your attention.
Hopefully, our people have been collecting intelligence upon which they are now acting in this agressive manner(s). Five months of this steady kick butt action–coupled with Iraqi units working side by side, will give the American public hope, which has been on the downhill side for far too long. Who cares where Sadr is sleeping…unless it is a “friend” who has a special package for him! Let’s win this war in Iraq sooner, rather than later…or get to another place for fighting our enemies.
Not to get to conspiratorial – but the bus explosion picture just seems off. There is none of the debris or gore you usually see with an explosion like this.
It almost looks like the bus had been blown up somewhere else and then moved here to be looked at by gawkers. Also there is no obvious crater from the auto that exploded or any scorch marks on the ground. All of the onlookers have the look of people who are reviewing something interesting, but not recent and horrifying.
Anyway, its just odd.
I have always been suspicious about the various AQ “attacks” in Syria. They always smacked me of attempts to say “look we are suffering from terrorism too – so how could you believe that we support it”. Could this be an example of that kind of thing?
Alright, i’m taking the tinfoil hat off now.
The administration keeps making the point that if we lose in Iraq the terrorists are going to follow us here and we will experience increased terrorist activity. It’s going to be a freaking disaster! So I really don’t think this President is going to cave like a weak minded democrat. He must address the Iranian problem because we can’t win unless it is addressed. All his talk is just misdirection and card playing. That is pretty obvious. He’s not LBJ, Carter or Clinton, for C’s sake.
So almost all of it is misdirection and battles in the shadows. Maybe this attack in the shopping mall was in response to the attack on the Iranians in the bus. Who knows?
Iran has long had a problem with Baluchistan and ironically even Ramzi Yousef (93 WTC attacker) himself was said to have been behind at least one major attack against the Shiite Iran.
If this was indeed the work of US special forces or various intelligence assisted local groups, I would expect Dems to leak this very soon.
With an eye for impeaching GWB.
Dems are openly saying we should not retaliate for Iranian government actions killing our troops. The Media is cheerleading them on openly doubting Bush’s evidence of Iranian involvement and asking why Bush is not “talking to Iran.”
I fully expect first leaks, then a push for impeachment.
I just found another way , why we don’t send some IED to Iran , kill those terrorists ?
RJ:
“Who cares where Sadr is sleeping…unless it is a “friend” who has a special package for him!”
It is not in Iraq or our interest that Muqtada is assassinated (certainly by a sunni arab). It would escalate Iraq’s civil war, and result in Shia militias killing a lot of sunni arab civilians. Muqtada needs to be de-legitimized and discredited in the court of Iraqi public opinion by the revelation of his own actions (complicity with the IRGC, drilling holes in the head of sunni arab Iraqi civilians and more importantly sunni arab militias and takfiris). His more capable military lieutenants need to be disarmed or arrested. Not Muqtada himself. PM Maliki’s (and Gen. David Petraeus’) new plan appears to be just that.
On the other hand if it can be proved that Muqtada is sleeping with someone he’s not married to (either sex) . . . he’s likely to see serious leakage in his poll ratings . . . ala Gary Hart 1984. Iraq has a lot of “values”
Bill,
A bus filled with IRGC blowing up in Iraq is not surprising. Its been happening since 2003. Many of the sunni arab militias, Baathists, and Takfiris (terrorists) see themselves as at war with IRGC and Shia militias (Badr and Mahdi).
That parts of the IRGC might be secretly supplying them with weapens and support doesn’t change their hostility to the IRGC one bit (they know that the IRGC is providing much more support to their Mahdi and Badr enemies than they are receiving . . . and they know that the IRGC aren’t really on their side.) Many bad guys have accepted covert help from the USG . . . although they hate America and are plotting to harm and kill us.
Little in the middle east is as it appears on the surface.
I am having my own tin hat moments now and then recently. What with evidence coming into view that elements in the CIA, State Department and FBI have tried to undermine and destroy our elected President. Their own turf wars and backbiting is simply more important than the welfare of our country.
The New York Times swallows and amplifies Al Qaeda propaganda and fake photos.
But Dan Rather is gone.
We are living in interesting times.
The fact that it wasn’t a suicide mission at least tells of western tactics if not western operators.
Either way – good job.
I don’t think it is a stretch to say that Iran, Pakistan, Iraq, and Afghanistan all have major problems. Their governments are all in similar danger of falling victim to insurgents. Iran is no different than any other dictatorship, save it be that their enemies are often our friends and now their neighbors don’t like living next door to nutjobs with nuclear ambitions.
I don’t think our CIA would need to provide material assistance to operatives in Iran trying to kill Iranian death squads that are willing to sell .50 cal sniper rifles to overthrow their neighborhood’s other governments.
Again, this is why Afghanistan and Iraq are such key battlegrounds. This isn’t just a “War on Terror” but rather a power struggle to stop the regimes that A. Control most of the world’s oil supply B. Use that money to fund terror campaigns aimed at Israel C. Harbor all kinds of bad elements and D. Have nuclear ambitions. If we leave Iraq and the government there falls, expect Iran to refocus their efforts and those sniper rifles to end up shooting at Musharraf and Karzai.
Bad news about all of this is that we are spending all this time talking about Iran when Syria is doing the exact same thing. We just don’t have rifle serial numbers and as many captured folks as we do for the Qods. This isn’t a war with terrorists, but a war with these two terror sponsoring states that are proxy fighting using their intelligence forces in Iraq and Afghanistan. Iran and Syria are a much more menacing enemy than some bearded nutjob hiding in the mountains.
I don’t know what to make of it except it eliminated members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard – which I view as positive.
I would like to see more of this. Iran can be a very dangerous place. There is no telling when something may explode. If we can keep the enemy busy putting out fires in his own backyard he will have less time to stir up trouble in Iraq.
Ah, the game we play with Sadr! He’s like a pet ball thrown back and forth while arguing whether we should talk about him (to death) or just kill him! Anand wants to “discredit” him, like giving him a low credit score for his next loan application. I think in this case I’ll follow Machiavelli instead of Jimmy Carter! Unless of course, a truly great communicator arises within our country to tell others who Americans really are! Mullah Omar and Sadr need to disover their virgins, sooner rather than later, I think. Evil is evil, and whenever I see those pictures of Islam’s spiritual leaders, I see men who don’t want to smile; they just project meanness…evil.
Regarding the oddness of the picture I referenced in my previous post, I was wrong.
Here is a link to more pictures of the bus.
http://www.farsnews.com/plarg.php?nn=M227535.jpg
I might point out that a few ideas about the “serge”
Ah, Holy War.
What does it all mean Basil?
Maybe it means that Islam is a battle within everyone of us eh?
Salaam wa alaikum
The effect of killing al Sadr depends on how much his activities are based in shiite ambitions, and how mcuh are based in personal ambition. I think that these military developments are promising, but the political developments have to happen too, and soon. An oil law, and working out their end point in national and regional government, are essential to ending the sectarian troubles.
In the end someone or something will prevail.