The Islamic Courts and the transitional government are due to clash in central Somalia
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Islamic Courts controlled cities and towns marked in red. Click map to view. |
The showdown in the central Somali town of Baidoa, where the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) has established its capital since the rise of the Islamic Courts, appears to be coming to a head. The Islamic Courts Union (ICU) have moved into the town of Buurhakaba after the TFG and Ethiopian forces occupying the town inexplicably retreated without a fight. Hassan Turki has openly declraed the intentions of the Islamic Courts and “announced his organization’s immediate intention to chase President Abdulahi Yusuf and his powerless government out of Biadoa in the coming days.” To highlight the importance of Buurhakaba to the Islamic Courts, Yusuf Mohamed Siad, otherwise known as Indohaadde , “was accompanied by his second-in-command, Sheikh Muktar Robow Abuu Mansur, and led hundreds of Islamic gunmen and battlewagons into town.” Indohaadde is a senior member of the Islamic Courts and has accompanied foreign al Qaeda fighters in the deserts of Somalia.
Somalia has turned into a proxy war between regional enemies Eritria and Ethiopia. Ethiopia has a stake in the fight as the Islamic Courts are hostile to Christian dominated Ethiopia and has sponsored separatist movements in the western Ogaden region in the past. The Islamic Courts views the Ogaden region as part of Somalia. ICU leader and al Qaeda ally Sheik Hassan Dahir Aweys has declared jihad against Ethiopian and “urged Ethiopians Monday to revolt against their government, calling it an oppressive regime led by an unpopular minority ethnic group.”
Ethiopian has been taken an active role in Somalia since the early summer to counter the rising threat. Shabelle reports an Ethiopian force has entered the Somali town of Abudwaq in Galgadud province, Puntland to bolster the local fighters. The Ethiopians have allied with “Abdi Qeybdid, who was member of the defeated anti-terror alliance backed by US government.” AKI reports the Ethiopians and Eritreans have amassed thousands of forces inside Somalia. “The Ethiopian government also denies its troops are present in Somalia, but diplomatic sources quoted by BBC estimate that 6,000-8,000 Ethiopians are now inside Somalia, bolstering the government’s faltering control. Some 2,000 fully equipped Eritrean soldiers are also involved in the current conflict in Somalia, ranged on the side of the UIC,” according to AKI. An American intelligence source states “elements of the Eritrean military that support the Islamic Courts” are funneling aide to them in Somalia.
The Islamic Courts claim to have captured an “Ethiopian officer” and will put him on display for the media. The ICU is also consolidating power along the Ethiopian and Kenyan borders. In the Kenyan border town of Dhobley, the ICU has established a military training base for new recruits. In the Ethiopian border town of Jawil, the ICU has set up shop, raising the stakes and likelihood of open conflict between Ethiopia and the Islamic Courts. The ICU also claims to have captured 36 ‘battlewagons’ or ‘technicals’ during recent fighting in the town of Bu’ale, near the port city of Kismayo.
3 Comments
Perhaps the US gov’t should extend an offer of air & sea support for the Ethiopian troops on the ground. It would be great to announce the new alliance simultaneously with air strikes on all the major terrorist training camps in Somalia, as identified by the new allied troops on the ground.
Wouldn’t it be best to strike while the iron is hot and take out the large congregation of international terrorists before they split up and make it infinitely harder?
This would be a way of showing that the US is serious about striking at those who harbour, finance and train terrorists. Tough talk should be followed by action when appropriate.
Robert Kaplan wrote in the April 2003 in an article in The Atlantic: “In Eritrea the United States may have to use a bilateral military relationship to nudge the country’s President toward prudent political and economic reform, so that Eritrea, too, won’t be destabilized.”
Does anyone know of any bilateral military relationship between the US & Eritrea? A quick Google search turned up little evidence of one, but I may not be looking in the right places. Regardless, given Eritrea’s backing of the Al Qaeda-supported ICU, I’m guessing that military arrangement either never came to fruition or has ended.
But with this support of the ICU (even if in a proxy effort versus Ethiopia), it would seem that Eritrea is placing themselves in a difficult corner, similar to the situation that Pakistan finds itself.
Can I hope that quite shipments of military equipment and supplies are on the way or have arrived in Eithiopia?