Worst Case Scenario: Hezbollah’s Conventional Forces

The Israeli Defense Forces and Hezbollah have fought pitched battles over the past two days in the region around Avivim. Ynet News reports nine Israeli soldiers were wounded during the fighting, and two were killed in the nearby town of Maroun al-Ras. “Attempts to rescue some of the injured were carried out under relentless fire,” according to the Ynet News report. Six Hezbollah cells were engaged during the attack. Israeli forces have withdrawn from the area.

Al Manar, Hezbollah’s mouthpiece, states “nine Israeli soldiers were reported killed in a Hizbullah ambush while advancing into Lebanon,” and “aired footage of Israeli Army equipment seized by Hizbullah fighters in the clashes.” While Al Manar inflates, distorts or outright lies quite often when it comes to casualty figures and other information, the fact that the claim on Al Manar must be considered is disquieting. An irregular force such as Hezbollah should not be fighting a professional military to a standstill.

Hezbollah also has built an extensive underground networks, including “fortified underground bunkers some 40 meters (roughly 120 feet) underground, along with mass weapons caches” and communications systems. All of this was built under the nose of the Israeli military and intelligence services, as well as the peacekeeping forces of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL).

The successful Hezbollah raid on the Israeli outpost that started the conflict, followed by the firing of rockets into Haifa and beyond, anti-ship cruise missiles which disabled an Israeli warship and sunk a civilian freighter, and the construction and presence of a fortified bunker network along the border have caught the Israeli intelligence community (Aman and Mossad) flat footed. In the words of an American military officer, “If we didn’t know this about Hezbollah’s capabilities, just think of what we don’t know about Iran’s capabilities.”

The Hezbollah fighters are well trained, and according to an anonymous senior military source, using ammunition and equipment such as armor piercing rounds, body armor, night vision gear and laser sights. Hezbollah also possesses mortars, RPGs, anti-tank and anti-personnel mines, anti-tank missiles and possibly surface to air missiles to accompany their arsenal of short and medium range missiles capable of striking into the heart of Israeli territory. Hezbollah is using infantry tactics and fighting at the squad and platoon level.

This isn’t a garden variety militia, but a well trained fighting force, the Iranian version of the Foreign Legion. This is highlighted by Olivier Guitta, who points out some interesting facts from the Arabic version of an Asharq Al-Awsat article which explained the Iranian’s involvement in training Hezbollah and supplying the group with its rocket arsenal:

200 Iranian Revolutionary Guards have been stationed in Lebanon since 1990. They have married Shia Lebanese women, mostly “Hezbollah widows” and have changed their names to Lebanese names. They installed over twenty fixed rocket bases in the Bekaa Valley and provided Hezbollah with mobile bases to launch rockets. Furthermore a secret elite force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard composed of about twenty men is watching the Israel Defense Forces’ every move with very sophisticated high-tech material and then deciding on the targets to hit inside Israel.

What we are seeing today is the direct result of the state sponsorship of a terrorist entity after it has gone unchecked for over two decades. Hezbollah has evolved from a terrorist, paramilitary group into the most effective fighting force in Lebanon, capable of conducting professional operations and using sophisticated weapons. The training camps in the Bekaa Valley are not only churning out fighters for Hezbollah, but train other terrorist organizations, exporting the dangerous tactics being used today in Lebanon, much like the training camps in Afghanistan served as a breeding grounds of today’s crop of terrorists.

While Israel can degrade Hezbollah via air strikes, naval bombardments and limited raids, the Iranian proxy force cannot be defeated without putting boots on the ground in southern Lebanon and deep into the Bekaa Valley. Hezbollah fighters must be engaged on the ground to be defeated. Anything short of that – a buffer zone or negotiated settlement, both of which members of the Israel government and military has indicated it would accept – is a victory for Hezbollah and Iran. Hezbollah would have struck at Israeli cities and stood up the invincible Israeli army, while weakening the nascent Lebanese democracy and asserting itself as the true military power in the country. This would far exceed Hezbollah’s victory of the Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 2000.

The surprise and uncertainty of Hezbollah’s military capabilities may in fact be the reason for pausing a massive invasion of Lebanon. Israel has yet to give up the option of a major ground strike, but there is resistance to moving into Southern Lebanon. The Jerusalem Post reports “IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Dan Halutz is known to be opposed to a ground incursion into Lebanon, which he has said would only be carried out as a last resort.” The deputy prime minister and the minister of defense have also signaled a large scale ground incursion is not desired.

This attitude will need to change if Israel wishes to eliminate the threat on the northern border.

Bill Roggio is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the Editor of FDD's Long War Journal.

Tags: hezbollah, Israel, lebanon