Hunting Zarqawi and Tales of the Tape (Updated)

In today’s weekly media briefing from Baghdad, Major General Rick Lynch stated Coalition and Iraqi forces are closing in on Zarqawi and his network. “We believe it is only a matter of time until Zarqawi is taken down. It’s not if, but when,” said Maj. Gen. Lynch, “He’s willing to pull his people from outside the perimeter of Baghdad into Baghdad to go full out on operations inside of Baghdad. Which leads us to believe his personal location is probably somewhere close to those operations. Zarqawi is zooming in on Baghdad, we are zooming in on Zarqawi.” Zarqawi’s focus on Baghdad is forcing him to concentrate the organization’s resources and energy on the capital (I noted on December 10, 2005 that the insurgency is focusing on the ‘core’ of Iraq – Baghdad and the surrounding regions, and reiterated this at the end of March). The focus on Baghdad is exposing his network to Task Force 145 – the hunter-killer teams of Special Operations Forces put together to track down Zarqawi and al Qaeda in Iraq high command.

It is difficult to be optimistic about the prospects of finding Zarqawi, as Coalition and Iraqi forces believe they have been close several times in the past two years. Zarqawi is a skilled and careful operator. But while Zarqawi has evaded capture or death, his network has not been so fortunate. The Associated Press reports, “31 ‘foreign fighters’ had been killed since April and 161 al-Qaida in Iraq leaders were killed or captured since January.” Maj. Gen. Lynch noted the raids in Yusifiyah over the past month have generated intelligence that has cascaded into future raids and intelligence windfalls on Zarqawi’s network. One of the raids in Yusifiah turned up the complete, unedited version of the Zarqawi videotape. Reuters and the Associated Press have similar accounts from Maj. Gen. Lynch’s briefing:

Associated Press: “It’s supposed to be automatic fire, he’s shooting single shots. Something is wrong with his machine gun, he looks down, can’t figure out, calls his friend to come unblock the stoppage and get the weapon firing again,” Lynch said.

“This piece you all see as he walks away, he’s wearing his black uniform and his New Balance tennis shoes as he moves to this white pickup. And, his close associates around him … do things like grab the hot barrel of the machine gun and burn themselves,” the military spokesman added.

Reuters: “So what you saw on the Internet was what he wanted the world to see ‘look at me. I am a capable leader of a capable organization and we are indeed declaring war against democracy in Iraq’,” Lynch said.

“What he didn’t show you were the clips that I showed you: wearing New Balance sneakers with his uniform, surrounded by supposedly competent subordinates who grab the hot barrel of a just-fired machine gun, … a warrior leader, Zarqawi, who doesn’t understand how to operate his weapons system.

“It makes you wonder.”

Maj. Gen. Lynch’s observations on Zarqawi’s handling of the machine gun matches an observation I made the day the tape was released, “In the final scene in the desert, Zarqawi shoots an M249 SAW (Squad Automatic Weapon)… Zarqawi does not appear particularly comfortable firing the weapon.” I also noted that it was curious there was no footage of Zarqawi actually leading a tactical operation. It will be interesting to see if such footage exists.

CENTCOM should release this video immediately, as if the video is as unflattering as they purport it to be, it is an ideal opportunity to conduct an Information Operation against Zarqawi. Zarqawi is portrayed as the warrior-leader of the Iraqi jihad, and the compromising, unedited video can work to erode his image. [CENTCOM released the video after this post was published. Kudos to CENTCOM.]

Updated: ABC News has the footage of the ‘Zarqawi Bloopers’. CENTCOM has a 20 second clip of Zarqawi misfiring the SAW. He is receiving instructions and definitely does not know how to handle this weapon. His handler clears the weapon for him. FOX News has a four minute clip.

Bill Roggio is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the Editor of FDD's Long War Journal.

Tags: Iraq