Iraq has successfully conducted its referendum on the proposed constitution with a minimal amount of violence, an estimated thirteen security incidents nation wide. al Qaeda’s Great Ramadan Offensive has failed. The Washington Post reports “Turnout was strong in three heavily Sunni provinces that had been expected to vote against it: Salahuddin, with 75 percent turnout reported by the local electoral director; Diyala, with 65 percent turnout; and Anbar, whose provincial total was not released Saturday.” Pamela Hess explores the potential outcomes of the vote. As the Iraqis focus on the tallying of the votes, attention turns to Syria.
Three separate stories appeared on cross-border operations in Syria and pressure on the Asad government. The New York Times reports American incursions into Syria have occurred in the past, “sometimes by accident, sometimes by design” , and that “the United States military is considering plans to conduct special operations inside Syria, using small covert teams for cross-border intelligence gathering.” Newsweek states the Bush administration is aware of Syrian complicity in the insurgency, and the diplomatic pressure is being escalated against the Asad regime.
While U.S. officials stop short of accusing al-Assad of actively aiding the insurgency, they say he has permitted jihadist transit and training camps to exist in the open. After the U.S. ambassador to Iraq, Zalmay Khalilzad, warned last month that “time is running out on Damascus,” U.S. officials even debated launching military strikes inside the Syrian border against the insurgency. But at an Oct. 1 “principals” meeting, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice successfully opposed such a move, according to two U.S. government sources who are not authorized to speak on the record. Rice argued that diplomatic isolation is working against al-Assad, especially on the eve of a U.N. report that may blame Syria for the murder of Lebanese politician Rafik Hariri.
The Times Online states the Bush administration has offered Asad the “Gaddafi deal” via a third party, which consists of the following:
1) Co-operate full with investigation into Rafik Hariri’s assassination and hand over any suspects for trial.
2) Cease all further interference in Lebanese affairs.
3) Halt funding, planning and training of Iraqi insurgents on Syrian territory.
4) Stop support for militant groups like Hezbollah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad.
A ‘senior Arab diplomat’ is cited in the article as saying “Assad is facing a tough time ahead and he has very few friends left… He is desperately looking for a way out of this predicament.” However, a ‘source close to the ruling family’ stated “The regime has calculated that it has the resources to survive for quite some time even if it is isolated… The strategy could be to manage the conflict until external pressures ease.”
Whatever the outcome of these negotiations, it is clear the war in Iraq has moved its center of gravity from central Iraq to the border with Syria, and perhaps all the way to Damascus. The establishment of permanent outposts in Tal Afar, Sa’dah and along the Euphrates in towns astride the ratlines from Syria, along with political progress in Iraq and the development of the Iraqi Security Forces has shown the Syrians the limitations of the insurgency. While the insurgency may be able to conduct attacks on infrastructure and kill Iraqi citizens, it is unable to derail the political process, obtain mass support or take and hold territory.
Syrai’s hand in the insurgency can no longer be hidden, and this has furthered the isolation of the Syrian government and created the conditions for the Syrian problem to be addressed. The Asad regime is now under diplomatic and military pressure to denounce its state sponsorship of Hezbollah and Hamas, eliminate the jihadi’s usage of its territory for attacks on Iraq, and quit its interference with Lebanon’s affairs.
Asad calculated that America did not have staying power in the Middle East, and pursued a policy of opposition to the establishment of democracy in Lebanon and Iraq. The effort in Iraq and pressure at the U.N. Security Council over Hariri’s assassination are proving him wrong.
Also read Wretchard’s analysis at The Belmont Club.
45 Comments
US bombs Iraq city amid fighting, 25 dead: doctor
Oct 16, 2005 – RAMADI, Iraq (Reuters) – Heavy fighting broke out in Ramadi, a rebellious city west of Baghdad, on Sunday and U.S. planes bombed areas in the east of the city, killing 25 people, residents and a local doctor said.
The U.S. military said it had no immediate information on any operations or clashes in the area.
Doctor Bassem al-Dulaimi at Ramadi hospital said he had received 25 dead and eight wounded and said relatives had told him the victims had been hit in aerial bombardments.
Residents reported heavy gunfire and clashes in central and eastern parts of the city.
http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=1220816
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Cleaning out the insurgent infested hellhole of Ar-Ramadi will be a big victory once it is done.
Prepping the battlefield in Ramadi?
that was where Zarqawi wanted his big final showdown…
my hope is that there were no civilian casualties, these doctors or whoever often lie and inflate casualties…
“that was where Zarqawi wanted his big final showdown…”
Can you explain?
My sympathy to the families of the 5 soldiers killed in Ramadi, on Iraqi election day. Those folks know well the price of freedom.
As the Insurgent’s Area of Operations grows ever smaller, their resistence may stiffen. If we eliminate their escape routes and R&R sanctuary in Syria, well, they will have to stand and fight, or disperse.
Praise be to allah
That article about Syria seems intriguing. I figured we had been crossing the border for some time. It would be handcuffing our own efforts if we didn’t.
Great news.
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Sunni Arab politicians late Sunday spoke of forging an alliance to bring together all political, tribal and regional groups to run in the December election on one ticket.
http://tinylink.com/?CJ57euguhO
Initial Results From Iraq’s Referendum
Initial results from Iraq’s constitutional referendum, as reported by election officials in each province. The figures are from the first tallies done by each province’s counting centers, which must be sent to Baghdad for another check and compilation. The final official figures, likely to be announced no sooner than Tuesday, may differ.
The names of each province is followed by its capital in parentheses.
check the link below for the initial results.
http://tinylink.com/?WaTuHS40JB
Let’s put ourselves in Bin Laden’s shoes. If you are he, what is the strategically smart step for you now? Lay low and hope to make it out of Pakistan/Afghanistan… marshall your forces somewhere else in the world? Bide your time for a few years to strike again. Keeping in mind that the US will be tracking the whole way. I think the AQ organization would play on the likelihood that the US will not ever full scale preemptively invade any country the way they did Iraq and Afghanistan. Tactically, they should have learned a lot about how US forces operate in combat.
If he is this great CEO/general type as has been reputed, then, if he’s smart at all, he should be cutting his losses now (or has long ago) and moving to the next strategy. If we assume this is a very smart calculating enemy (which would be foolhardy to not believe), they will not take their complete destruction at the hands of US forces to the very end for Allah. They retreat and figure out when and where the next battle is.
In the mean time, they allow Zarqawi et al to continue “terrorist” style attacks on Iraqi citizens and coalition troops. The negative publicity will continue to work to AQ’s advantage, even after the braintrust has exited the scene to fight another day.
I throw all this out as a devil’s advocate scenario and am curious to hear what people think. I consider this site to have the most informed blog and comments section I’ve run across.
to #4 Jamison:
Zarqaei in declaring war on the Shiites said that the final battle was underway to finally vanquish the American and Coalition army. he was refering to a final confrontation in which Coalition forces would be destroyed, giving Iraq to the Mujahadeen. from everything i have read, he is probably in Ramadi, which seems to be the last remaining AQI strongpoint, so it seems probable that he knew his timein Iraq was at an end, and that Ramadi would be the final resting place for the Foreign Terrorists. i will work to provide a link, it was some time ago, and will take some effort to recover…
The Baathists continue to be dirt stupid, ah well as long as they vote in December.
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Voters in Falluja said they would continue supporting the insurrection. “The resistance will go on,” said Hamid Jassim, 60, queueing to vote at al-Khansa primary school. Those within earshot nodded vigorously. “God willing it will go on,” they said.
Amir Ismael, 45, a former army colonel, said the ballot box was a complement, not a substitute, for armed revolt. “The resistance is legitimate.”
http://tinylink.com/?0xTWcUxwE1
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2005%5C10%5C17%5Cstory_17-10-2005_pg7_10
25 killed in air raids in Ramadi.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20051016/wl_mideast_afp/usiraqinsurgency_051016221504;_ylt=AlijtkDMpkPZ6sP_YLs2q_9X6GMA;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl
TIME magazine is in contact with a former Saddam soldier who is helping Zarqawi with suicide bombers. How can anyone still say Saddam had no contact with Zarqawi? By the way, this guy is very dangerous and TIME magazine thinks its ok to interview this guy and OK for him to still be on the loose. Is it just me or is something incredibly wrong with this? How is this not treason?
Ike
Outside of 1st Admendment issues, the primary reason it would not be treason is we are not at War. The Congress has authorized the President to Use Force in Iraq. It NEVER declared war in this latest Mohammedan affair. No War, No Treason
We know who’s side Time is on and they need to be treated as such. Their’s more than one way to punish traitors.
Desert rat, I heard told that we remained in a state of war following Desert Storm if Saddam violated UN resolutions/treaty agreements. Correct me if I am wrong. I’m just throwing that out there. Did we technically remain in a state of war?
‘In the mean time, they allow Zarqawi et al to continue “terrorist” style attacks on Iraqi citizens and coalition troops. The negative publicity will continue to work to AQ’s advantage, even after the braintrust has exited the scene to fight another day.’
Docholiday, its arguable how Zarqawis suicide bombings killing innocent Iraqis plays out positively for him and AQ. I think this has lead to divisions within the ranks as per Zawahiris letter. They are basically showing there ass so to speak. I think that game is wearing thin. Only our media has the nerve to spin it that way but I think over there he is dead man walking, he just doesnt know it yet.
US bombs Iraq city amid fighting, 25 dead: doctor
Oct 16, 2005 – RAMADI, Iraq (Reuters) – Heavy fighting broke out in Ramadi, a rebellious city west of Baghdad, on Sunday and U.S. planes bombed areas in the east of the city, killing 25 people, residents and a local doctor said.
The U.S. military said it had no immediate information on any operations or clashes in the area.
Doctor Bassem al-Dulaimi at Ramadi hospital said he had received 25 dead and eight wounded and said relatives had told him the victims had been hit in aerial bombardments.
Residents reported heavy gunfire and clashes in central and eastern parts of the city.
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Seems like last site is Ramadi . We’ll taken there !
U.S. nabs al-Qaida’s main website producer
BAGHDAD, Iraq – The Web site run by al-Qaida in Iraq was strangely quiet during the referendum on the new Iraqi constitution. There were no threats against voters, no boasts of disrupting the vote.
And now we know one reason why. A top propaganda agent for al-Qaida in Iraq, known as Abu Dijana, was captured shortly before the vote, according to the U.S. military. Abu Dijana was responsible for much of what has appeared on the Web site called “al-Qaida in Iraq,” including provocative videos of suicide bombings and crucial communications to al-Qaida fighters.
The “al-Qaida in Iraq” site, available to members only, features highly detailed tutorials on bomb-making, strategy for assassinations, and even a workshop on hacking into secret American government Web sites. The Web site claims it has 4,000 members.
The Web site’s home page features pictures of Zarqawi and Osama bin Laden. With commercial planes we turned America into hell.” The Web site also publishes detailed analyses of the sometime cryptic statements released by the two al-Qaida leaders.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9720497/
Oded
As far as I know, the US has not declared war since Mr Roosevelt made his “Day of Infamy” speech, committing US to WWII.
My pocket copy of the Constitution does not reference “State of War” as such. Other than saying Congress has the Power and Authority to Declare War. The President, as CiC, can deploy troops and engage enemies of US at his discresion. Congresional attempts to limit his ability in this regard, the War Powers Act, has never, to my knowledge, been tested in Court.
We are still at “War” with North Korea, that conflict never going beyond the “Cease Fire” stage of negotiations.
It is more than a matter of Law and semantics. It is a mindset that precludes a 100% effort by US.
I know this going off on a tangent from your discussion of treasonous behaviour but I am a little foggy on GW1, what was our status (in terms of state of war)then and thereafter? What treaty was made and what were the repercussions for violations? How was the US as part of a coalition entitled to prosecute a war following those infractions?
As for treason, does the Patriot Act allow for any action vs media, inviduals or groups engaging in dialogue with known terrorists?
After Saddam invaded Kuwait the UN passed a Resolution calling for his withdrawal and Authorizing Force to remove his Army, if required.
The Congress voted to authorize President Bush Sr. to use force to enforce the UN Resolution. Many Democrats voted against the Use of Force Authorization, even with UN authorization, but it did pass.
Following Iraq’s withdrawal from Kuwait, Saddam’s representitives signed an agreement with General Swartzkoff(sp) to end the conflict. This agreement defined the no fly zones and other promises of compliance with past UN Resolutions.
In the current Authorization of Use of Force, Saddam’s Iraq refusal to com;ply with those Resolutions were sited as cause to use force, again.
ghoullio,
I remember his “final battle” speech. It didn’t make a lot of sense to me (still doesn’t). I did not link it to Ramadi. Not sure if Ramadi is the final stronghold since there are a lot of enemy in north central Iraq still.
Thanks rat, that was helpful
Something fishy may have happened in Northern Iraq. The tally in Nineveh province is very weird. Tamim province next door with a Kurdish majority got a 36% “No” vote (which means that most Sunnis, Turkomen and Christians there voted “No”). Nineveh province which is only 30% Kurdish voted 79% in favor of the constitution when a majority of Sunnis and practically all Sunni Turkomen and Christians opposed it. An Iraqi blog is saying that Christian turnout was only 30% in this election. Why would they not turn out in greater numbers than that? Their religious leaders were strongly encouraging everybody to vote. Either they were scared to death to vote or not allowed to vote. Christians claim the Kurdish Peshmerga never delivered the ballots to their towns in the first election. That’s what the Christian protests in front of the Green Zone were about.
http://www.christiansofiraq.com/sliva.html
Also, where are the Sunni Turkomen of Tal Afar and why did they not vote when they were also encouraged by all of their religious and political leaders to vote? If many of them are in refuge from the operation in Tal Afar, why were they not allowed to vote from wherever they were? If they did vote, it is unlikely they voted “Yes” considering almost all of the Sunni Turkomen in Tamim province next door voted “No”.
Tamim province next door had a 78% turnout with huge numbers of Sunni Arabs, Sunni Turkomen and Christians voting. Tamim province has a population of 1.2 million and had 520,000 people vote (.43 votes per person). That means there were 660,000 registered voters in Tamim. Nineva, the most important province to the passage of the constitution, has a population of 2.5 million and had 400,000 people vote (.16 votes per person). Turnout is not being given. If 55% of the population was registered to vote like in Tamim, that would mean there are 1,375,000 registered voters and the turnout is 29%. No wonder turnout figures are not being given. 29% turnout (the lowest of the entire country) in the most important province to the whole election is very very odd.
Also, expatriates were not allowed to vote in this election like they were in the last one. I wonder if it’s because 200,000 American Chaldeans from Mosul rejecting the constituion would be enough to shift the balance against the constitution.
I doubt the Sunnis would have had enough votes to shift reach 2/3 rejection in Nineva province anyways. But it is starting to look like Al Jaafari and his Kurdish buddies might have pulled something just in case.
The 400,000 votes number may be a little higher. 400,000 may been counted so far with 90% of the polling stations reporting. It will be higher but not that much higher. Some are saying the count is over 600,000 but that many have not been counted. 640,000 would be 45% turnout and still unlikely.
The Iraqi Islamic Party is not very prominent in this part of the country at all either.
Watch the “Yes” percentage mysteriously decline very significantly as the last 10% of stations report as a way to cover up this fraud.
vuc,
“Something shady in Mosul”
Read pages 20 and 24 of the report to congress.
83% of the population of Mosul reports feeling either unsafe or not very safe. However the attack density is identical to Baghdad.
http://www.defenselink.mil/news/Oct2005/d20051013iraq.pdf
An estimated 70 terrorists killed near Ramadi
CAMP BLUE DIAMOND, AR RAMADI, Iraq — Coalition forces continued counter-terrorism operations in areas of Al Anbar Province Oct. 16, killing an estimated 70 terrorists in separate actions.
At approximately 1:25 p.m., Coalition forces conducted an air strike against a group of terrorists attempting to emplace an improvised explosive device east of Ramadi.
While conducting a combat air patrol, crewmembers from an F -15 observed 20 men arrive in four vehicles at the crater site of a previously-detonated IED which had killed five U.S. and two Iraqi Soldiers on Oct. 15. The terrorists were in the process of emplacing another IED in the same spot when the F- 15 engaged them with a precision-guided bomb, resulting in the death of terrorists on the ground.
At approximately 7:30 p.m., a UH-1N Huey and AH-1W Cobra helicopter team on patrol north of Ramadi had been observing a group of military age males gathered at a suspected terrorist safe house. After realizing their position had been compromised, the terrorists fled the scene and engaged the Cobra with small arms fire. The Cobra returned fire with 20 mm. munitions, resulting in the death of an estimated 10 terrorists. At approximately 7:50 p.m., a team of F/A-18’s resumed observation at the suspected safe house where they found an additional 35-40 terrorists loading their vehicles with weapons and driving to another location to unload the weapons. The F/A-18 targeted the terrorists with a precision-guided bomb, killing terrorists on the ground. The combined strikes resulted in approximately 50 terrorists killed.
The strikes took place in the Abu Faraj region, north of Ramadi, where a large number of indirect fire and IED attacks against civilians, Iraqi infrastructure, Iraqi security forces and Coalition forces have originated.
At approximately 8:00 p.m., Coalition forces guarding the Government Center in Ramadi were attacked by a small-arms fire attack from multiple locations within an adjacent building. After requesting air support to neutralize the increasing volume of fire, an F/A-18 engaged the target with a maverick missile at approximately 8:50 p.m. When the small arms fire continued, Coalition forces engaged the targets with two shoulder mounted multipurpose assault weapons (SMAWs), resulting in the cessation of all movement from within the structure. An estimated 1-3 terrorists were killed in the strike.
All the attacks were timed and executed in a manner to reduce the possibility of collateral damage. There were no reports of Coalition or civilian casualties.
The attacks follow a successful Referendum in which there were no major disruptions caused by terrorists at the polls in Al Anbar Province. Coalition forces continue to aggressively pursue terrorists whose aim is to kill Iraqi civilians and Coalition forces in an attempt to disrupt the political process.
I’ll also feel that the 21% No vote for Ninawa does not appear right. Mosul is majority Sunni I have read, so that is about 55%. Talafar being Turkoman, my guess is that 10% of the province is Turkoman plus Chaldean.
So assuming that a large number of results from Sunni and Turkoman districts have not come in yet, we should expect the percentage of the No vote to increase, maybe reaching 50%.
Are there any reporters in Mosul and what are they saying?
Dawn Patrol
Welcome to the Dawn Patrol, our daily roundup of information on the War on Terror and other topics – from the MilBlogs, other blogs, and the mainstream media. If you’re a blogger, you can join the conversation. If you link…
Iraqi Election Positives
Strategy Page has a good and concise sum up of the improvements in this election over the last. More people voted, with a turnout of 69% of registered voters. There were very few terrorist events, and only ten people died
– snoopin’ and poopin’ on Syrian soil – of course that has been going on for some time. There’ll be no bunker hunkering for our special ops lads – it would be a waste of training and resources and bad for their morale
The final vote tally in Mosul was 778,000. 54% no. It would appear they counted votes in the “Yes” neghborhoods first.
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L1765436.htm
desert rat,
Please leave this phrase out of your comments:
“Praise be to allah”. I have had too many friends killed and too many of “them” shooting at me to stomach that. Just drop it, O.K. It is NOT NECESSARY or helpful. Thank you!
leaddog
Not a chance
Our only way out of Iraq and the ME is with the assistance of the Mohammedan populations of the area. Unless Mr Bush decides to implement a Religious Genocide and depopulate the entire region, which is not in the cards.
Many, if not most, of our Allies in Iraq are Mohammedans.
We ARE NOT at war with Mohammedanism. That is a fact, you may not like it, but it is so. If we do not respect the Religion of our Allies, they will not be Allies for long. Then we will FAIL and your friends deaths will be for naught.
Sorry, about your friends but the fact that they were killed or shot at by Fascist reactionaries has little to do with Mohammedanism.
So says Mr Bush, I agree with him.
I just finished Charlie Wilson’s War. I reccomend it for anyone whom want’s to know what can happen to Syria. Unfortunately like Afghanistan and Iraq you can not walk away and leave a vaccuum. I expect that pressure will continue at all levels. When this results in the final border closing on the Western Front in Iraq it will be more interesting to see Iran’s response for they are engaged in their version of Wilson’s war on the Eastern Front of Iraq.
The vote of the 15th is a very good thing for our long term desire to see democracy introduced into the Middle East. This weekend Ms Rice made one of her more useful and insightful points on Meet the Press. She pointed out that whether or not the constitution was passed democracy was in practice. In short voting up or down was an ACT of democracy.
The importance of this is staggering. The disconnect between the actual good the Bush Administration is doing for the GWOT(the only thing I agree with Bush on) and their inablity to articulate is maddening. In this day and age when, regardless of where you think the press is in the larger media outlets, you must be able to articulate your strategies. And if you can not articulate REAL and tangible success you are shooting yourself in the foot.
Soldier’s Dad, isn’t 54% for all of Niniveh?
Wretchard’s Take
And I think he’s right. Just as the ouster of Saddam by OIF touched off a wave of changes in Libya, Lebanon and the entire region, the impending defeat of the insurgency will paradoxically enhance the ability of diplomacy to address many of the remaini…
leaddog
If you were to look closly, I only use that phrase when our Iraqi Allies have achieved success.
As I am sure you know, the Mohammedan Fascists, attempting to hijack a great and mighty religion, believe that their god takes an active interest in these conflicts and his will can be ascertained from the outcomes. If we continue to win and our Mohammedan Allies continue to move forward, then the only reasonable view is that allah favors our side.
The world must know that allah supports US. If we do not tell the world, who will?
Jamison,
You are correct, the reuters item said Mosul and surrounding areas in Ninewa. Bad Me. 778,000 votes would be something in the neighborhood of 60% turnout in Ninewa.
54% “No” seems reasonable and expected. What is weird is how the “Yes” votes all came in at the beginning and the votes at the end were almost 100% “No” votes. Are there American and/or International observers watching the Iraqi government count the votes?
Diyala province also has a questionnable vote tally with only 20% voting “No” in the province with a Sunni majority.
The Iraqi election commission is looking into allegations of fraud by Sunnis and are going to audit the results. Who controls the Iraqi election commission?
Looks like Ninawa province at 54% No is coming close to the 66% mark. It’s a hair away.
Given that 55% of Ninawa is Arab Sunni (my guess) and 10% Turkmen/Chaldean, and also about 5% of Shiites are against the Constitution, that could take the No vote very close to 66%.
Question is how much a fuss are the Sunnis going to make about this. How much a fuss are the selective-outrage MSM going to make about this.
Part of the problem is the provincial composition of ethnicities. The Kurds and Shiite populate enough provinces to block any Constitution. But the Sunnis do not. The geographic boundary of their provinces incorporate too many other ethnicities. I am sure the Sunnis will add this event to their long list of “historic grievances”, imaginary and real, which gives them the “god given right” to blow up marketplaces and hospitals.
Frankly the Sunnis are to blaim for their own imbecility. While everyone else was trying to influence the TAL to their own benefit (Kurds, Sistani, etc.), and everyone else elected their representatives to write the Constitution – the Sunnis were busy suiciding civilians.
Diyala 20% No result cannot be final either.
This is one of the reasons why I think Bush is incompetent. There ought not be any possibility of Syria “mananging ” a conflict with the U.S. War with the U.S. ought to mean a bullet in the head, not getting “managed.”
hamidreza:
I’ve been reading that 20% “No” is the final tally in Diyala.
Why speculate and create Ohio Demon lies? Just let them count the votes.
Oops! Meant to finish that as DemocRat lies?