The past month has been exceptionally hard on the upper management of al Qaeda in Iraq. The death of al Qaeda in Iraq’s senior commander, Abdullah Abu Azzam, highlights this fact. Security Watchtower documents the heavy losses. In the Anbar and Diwana provinces, sixteen leaders, including six “emirs” , five senior facilitators and 5 brigade or cell leaders have been killed or captured. This list excludes the Coaliton’s success in dismantling the al-Ahwal brigade in the city of Hit. The Lincoln Tribune provides the details, summarized below. Note the cascading effect of capturing a senior leader of the al-Ahwal brigade. Within two weeks the leadership is rounded up.
• On Aug. 13, Multinational forces raided a suspected terrorist location in Baghdad and captured Abu Ahmah, the second in command of the terrorist Al-Ahwal Brigade in Hit.
• On Aug. 24 Coalition forces raided a suspected terrorist location in the vicinity of Hit and captured Abu Yamana, a homemade- and car-bomb cell leader.
• On Aug. 25, multinational forces raided a suspected terrorist location near Hit and captured Abu Husayn, who led a media cell that filmed and photographed attacks, created fliers, posters and other extremist propaganda and distributed them to local citizens in Hit and other cities in the region.
• On Aug. 26 Multinational forces raided a suspected terrorist location in Baghdad and captured Abu Jafar or Abu Zaynab, the leader and primary financier of the Al-Ahwal Brigade.
• Also on Aug. 26 Mahmud Saynt, Jafar’s military commander and closest friend and adviser, was killed when coalition forces attempted to capture him.
• On Aug. 27, forces raided a suspected terrorist location in Hit and captured Aby Sayf, who had been Mahmud Saynt’s deputy and had just succeeded the slain Al-Ahwal Brigade military commander.
Yet another al Qaeda leader has been detained by the Coalition. Abdul Rahman Hasan Shahin, “one of the most wanted figures in Mosul” surrendered to local police. This is not the action of a jihadi leader with high morale. And his cowardice will filter down the ranks. But based on the Coalition’s pounding of al Qaeda in northern Iraq, Shahin’s surrender is understandable.
Wretchard drives home the impact of decapitating al Qaeda’s middle and upper management, a point made here often.
But the worst of it is the wastage to cadres. Those who write that body counts are a meaningless metric to apply against the insurgency ignore the fact that formations which sustain heavy casualties lose their organizational memory while those who suffer lightly retain them. Lt. Col. Joseph L’Etoile is on his third and half of his men are on their second tours of Iraq . For Abu Nasir and many of his foreign fighters, the memory of what to avoid next time has been lost on this, their last tour of Iraq.
Image of al-Ahwal Brigade courtesy of CENTCOM.
22 Comments
Bill I want to echo Eric’s comment in the previous thread: “excellent reporting”. It seems that good info on the operations in Iraq are nowhere to be found in the MSM. Keep it up…
What a day of news. Nice wrapup Bill.
Bill,
Can you tell me what you make of this?
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2005/09/27/MNG99EUI391.DTL&feed=rss.news
It’s a story about 5 Iraqi towns on the Syrian border being “under insurgent control”. There is an American military official supposedly confirming it. If this is true, and I don’t know if it is, but if it is do you think it’s going to be the target of another major operation?
Ike,
I have a post on this in the works… Just posted on Azzam again, this is next on the deck. Days are too short at times…
Oh God, how many times have we heard this? “Key figure caught” “Insurgent forces taking heavy losses” Even if this man is who they say he is (and there have been cases of mistaken identify before, because as we know all those towel heads look alike), as Richard Myers pointed out, they will find someone to replace him. Because the insurgents are not like an army, they don’t have a centralized structure, they are more like a franchise and someone else will eagerly jump into the void left. This is like cheering that you got the head cockroach.
zen_less,
They are actually like an army. It still takes experts to train and lead terrorists. The more experienced people are apt to perpetrate deadler attacks, and are less likely to not get caught. The inexperienced terrorist is prone to make faulty bombs and are more likely to get caught. If you have been reading Bill’s posts, and Wretchards over at Belmont Club, you would know this. Furthermore, I find it interesting that this weekend’s bombings in Baghdad were with bike bombs as opposed to car bombs. That can mean one of three things. First, it could mean that we have eliminated all the car bombs the terrorists have in Iraq. It could also mean that the terrorists don’t have enough material to make more car bombs. Finally, it could mean that all the experts who build car bombs are dead or have been captured. Personally I think its a combination of of possibilities of 1 and 2 because the past few week s have been filled with reports of both the capture of car bomb makers and the destruction of car bomb factories.
For any associate of al Qaeda, good riddance, but this guy has apparently been given a promotion. Previous reports say that he was a regional leader in Anbar Province, which would mean that he was nowhere close to being the #2 man.
zen_less #5 wrote
as we know all those towel heads look alike
Alas, that is a somewhat ignorant sentiment. There are 25 million Iraqis, with diverse cultural and ethnic traditions. Many have made terrible sacrifices for their country, some willingly and some at the hands of native and foreign jihadis.
There is some truth to your other points on Coalition and Iraqi strategy. However, if you read The Fourth Rail‘s archives and visit some of the linked pages, you should be able to see why this simplistic viewpoint misses some important factors.
Another one bites the dust
As I mentioned in this post, another senior terrorist was killed in Haditha on Sept 18. Such operations indicate US and Iraqi intelligence is excellent.
Mr. Roggio,
I can’t tell you how useful and informative your reporting and analysis is.
Thank you.
Jamie Irons
I can’t believe I just read this:
“…it could mean that we have eliminated all the car bombs the terrorists have in Iraq. It could also mean that the terrorists don’t have enough material to make more car bombs…”
Apparently they’re also running out of bullets, clothes and food, so victory must be right around the corner…
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2005/09/27/MNG99EUI391.DTL&feed=rss.news
Any opinion on this Bill?
Mixed Humor,
It won’t be until later tonight until I get to this article. Never enough time…
JT,
The point of my statement is that Coalition opperations are having an affect on the terrorists ability and doesn’t mean we are close to victory.
In 1942 the US Navy destroyed 4 Japanese carriers at Midway. Didn’t mean WWII was over but it did mean that we severly damaged their offensive ability.
The South in the US Civil War always had Generals.
However, despite their authorities and titles many of those Generals were not up to the tasks. For example Ewell at Gettysburg may have lost the fight on the first day for failing to realize what a critical juncture he was at and press his fight. Many say Stonewall Jackson would have won the day and the battle.
In this case, we are inflicting much more loss on the enemy’s upper & middle managment than our forces suffer. Experience does matter, this is why companies work on retaining the workers they have hired and trained.
The SFGATE article referenced twice above has to be bogus. This strangely similar article from Sept 6 was refuted on Sept 9 by Bill R:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/09/05/AR2005090500313.html
Bill’s Sept 9 refutiation titled The “Islamic Republic of Qaim” is here (scroll down to Sept. 9):
http://billroggio.com/archives/middle_east/iraq/
The border campaigns of the last three weeks described and analyzed so well in The Fourth Rail have targeted Qaim directly and successfully so what is up with this deja-vu report??
Dead Men Train no Terrorists
The problem with the theory that the enemy is gaining experience in Iraq and that is why it’s bad that we fight there, is that dead men take their experience with them, and lots of high-level enemy have been dying in Iraq lately. And as long as that ke…
Grinder,
You have overlooked several possibilities. They could be saving their VBIEDS for mass attacks. The cell that launched the attacks may have only had access to bikes. Or they are exploring new TTPs. I do believe I saw something where they strapped IEDs to a donkey. A couple incidents does not a trend make. In speculating like this, you set yourself up for disappointment.
BTW, Bill, many of the MSM reports of recent activity misspell Baghdadi (near Hit) as Baghdad. I know you’ve (accurately) reported on Baghdadi recently, but quoting those reports may be confusing to some. Just my opinion. Thank you for some excellent analysis.
“Finally, it could mean that all the experts who build car bombs are dead or have been captured. Personally I think its a combination of of possibilities of 1 and 2 because the past few week s have been filled with reports of both the capture of car bomb makers and the destruction of car bomb factories.”
Or maybe they don’t have any cars left? (Or don’t have access to gasoline because the American/Iraqi Nationalist forces control the gas supply?)
And what the hell is a car-bomb factory? You don’t need a factory to strap some C4 plastic explosives inside the trunk of a car with a remote switch given to the driver. Just ask the CIA… They invented the thing.
Peace,
Jeremy Brendan
“Oh Canada…the True North Strong and Free.”
The Death of a Thousand Cuts
Yesterday I wrote a long post about a new advocacy group for a newly self-identified victim group. They displayed all the accoutrements of the typical psychology of newly minted societal victims; their shame was transformed into pride, their anger was
Jeremy Brendan – the Islamist enslavers are not using C4 explosives. They are mostly using leftover Soviet artillary shells, after an extensive series of modifications and riggings. Its actually a technically demanding operation that requires skill, not to mention a harrowing one.
Then they have to conceal all this hundreds of pounds of weaponry so that the criminal Islamic fascist can get through the checkpoints.
Last time I checked, the CIA had stopped building bombs. And that was at least 20 years ago.
Inroads in Iraq
Bill Roggio, over at The Fourth Rail, provides an optimistic assessment of the progress being made against terrorists in Iraq. Here’s how he begins: The past month has been exceptionally hard on the upper management of al Qaeda in Iraq….