The final assault on Tal Afar has commenced. The joint U.S. and Iraqi strike force has begun searching homes door-to-door after targeted airstrikes in the center of town. It is estimated over one-third of the city has been swept by Coalition forces.
Defense Minister Dulaimi said the operation in Tal Afar was planned several months ago. He also states that Tal Afar is the Iraqi Army’s first true test in combat in an urban environment, and but the first of such operations; “[Tal Afar] is a good experiment for the Iraqi forces. It is an urban warfare experiment. And we are going to carry out such operations in any Iraqi city that does not abide by the rules of law.”
The cities and towns along the Euphrates ratline are specifically singled out for future attention; “We tell our people in Ramadi, Samarra, Rawah and Qaim that we are coming There will be no refuge for the terrorists, criminals and bloodsuckers.”
While the operations in Tal Afar continue, the Coalition continues the press the attack in the Qaim region. An airstike is conducted in the town of Ubaydi, and a senior al Qaeda leader, known as “Sheik”, is believed to have been killed. According to CENTCOM; “Sheik has been known to have extensive connections throughout the Middle East to include Yemen, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Syria. From those countries his connections recruited and financed foreign fighters who were later smuggled into Iraq, usually through Syria, and subsequently delivered to various terrorist groups in western Iraq.”
The Anbar Campaign is escalating. The assault on Tal Afar and attacks in and around Qaim are merely the prelude to further operations along the Euphrates River and in northern Iraq. One month ago I stated the following:
Fifteen battalions are coming online, and while their deployment locations are not specified, their likely destinations are Ninewah and Anbar. Couple this with the freed US units due to Iraqi forces taking charge of security in less active areas, and a dramatic increase in Coalition forces to tackle the insurgency along the Euphrates River looks to be on the near horizon. Think late summer or early fall.
The Coalition wisely chose later summer to begin the offensive, giving them six weks to establish order prior to the October 15th referrendum on the constitution.
While there has been much disparaging of the efforts to train and equip the Iraqi forces to enter the fight, the Coalition continues to push forward in establishing a capable Iraqi Army. The Iraqi Army may not be “fully operational”, but they are still an effective fighting force when working in conjuction with U.S. forces.
This has been stated several time in the past, but it bears repeating: the Iraqi Army has yet to meet it is full potential, and even so progress is being made in Anbar and Ninewah. When the Iraqi Army fully comes online within the next two years, as is estimated by many experts, the insurgency will be pushed further to the outlying areas of Iraq, and forced to go underground. Or they can abondon the fight and enter the political process. Either option points to defeat in Iraq for al Qaeda.
25 Comments
Bill,
Do you have any ideas on getting the number of US casualties down in Iraq? The US public isn’t going to support the Iraqi people 8 months from not let alone two years from now unless we can get the number of US casulties per month down to around 20.
The number of US casualties has decreased dramatically in the past 2 1/2 months.
1st 10 days of september has seen only 7 hostile US deaths (all from IEDS, icasualties.org – a moonbat site).
If this trend continues, September will be the month with the LEAST casualties since the START of the invasion. This despite the US conducting a major offensive. Any loss of lives is heartbreaking, but this would certainly be something to brag about and rub it in the “paci-fascist” crowd (George Orwell – a pacifist is another name for a fascist supporter).
It is up only because the US force are taking offensive and combats are always dungerous.
But this offensive is about definitive control on supply routes for the insurgency.
Without supply routes, their ability to attack will be severely limited, then the deaths will go down.
Hamidreza- I have to question your interpritation of the casualty count from the source you noted. They indicate August as having the highest US casualty rate since January. And a ten day sample, while thus far a lower than normal average is not statistically very accurate.
And another thought comes to mind about all this…
With the Iraqi forces becoming ever more proficient, a couple of neighboring countries are probably getting VERY nervous. In 2 to 5 years, the Iraqi Army will definitely be a force to be reckoned with, giving the new government of Iraq a lot of leverage in their “diplomatic” endeavors in the region.
It’s been a difficult job getting this particular boulder to start moving, but it looks like it’s been nudged out of its little hole and is now starting to roll… Woe to those who might now stand in its path.
Just my $.02
DRK
I have started to see a positive effect of our operations in Anabar and along the Syrian border. The number of VBIED (Vehicle bourne improvised explosive device) attacks is down 34% in the first week of Sept compared to the first week in August. Additionally the the majority of the ones that have occured have shifted from the ‘Sunni Triangle’ to the west. I contend that this is a result of the insurgent supply lines being interupted and a corasponding shift in attacks to where they are being hurt the most.
hamidreza,
When the US is on the offensive deaths seem to go down alot.
It is really only the IEDs that have managed to be the big killer of US soldiers. Anything we can do to minimize that threat and we will have won the political war on the home front.
Justin, I have seen this idea floated on how to combat IEDs –
The US should manufacture a large number of soviet style artillary shells and mines, except with the difference that any attempt to open the shell to rig it to a triggering mechanism would make it detonate right in place.
The US can then “soil and age” these doctored shells, and have the Special Forces leave them in the usual places where such ordinance is found in the areas subject to the insurgency.
Once these doctored ordinance enters the terrorist manufacturing stream, it will annihilate those few terrorists who have developed expertise in manufacturing IEDs. I reckon there are just a few terrorists competent enough to rig an ordinance.
When the terrorist tries to rig a doctored ordinance into an IED, he and all his trainees and the so-called “civillians” surrounding him will immediately attain the rank of Islamic martyr and join their beloved 72 virgins in the other world (and they will eternally be grateful to the Americans).
Hamidreza,M,
Casualties –
I personally look at the weekly trend, rather than the monthly trend lines.
http://www.icasualties.org
menuitem statistics->fatality metrics
Options – view totals by week, filter by week, Country US.
The last lull occured the week of July 3rd(8 casualties), steadily rising to a peak the week of July 31st(36 casualties), declining steadily since.
Unfortunately, it is impossible to know in advance if the trendline represents a lull or a permanent degradation of insurgents.
This body count kept by MSM and “anti-war” activists it’s disgusting. They really enjoy when numbers are increasing… I don’t see sites with thousands of people Iran, North Korea, Sudan have executed in the last 5 years only…
Hope the bastards will survive just few months after a terrorist nuclear attack so they can put on-line a site with millions of names… no.
hamidreza,
That is a great idea. I suspect the number of IEDs and suicide bombs are going to spike massively in October as al-Qaeda in Iraq and Ansar al-Sunna try to derail the elections.
I wouldn’t be suprised if al-Qaeda doesn’t also attempt a “show of strengh” to the Sunni public in the next two months by trying to hit something outside Iraq like Europe or a major Arab capital like Amman.
Soldier’s Dad,
If you look at insurgent attacks they come in waves and then lulls. They blew their wad when it came to suicide bombers in April and May so there has been far fewer reciently. They also blew their wad with IEDs in August so there have been fewer reciently. However, October is going to be a bad month with the Constitutional Referendum. Basically, the way I see it al-Qaeda and Ansar are stacking up right now with suicide vests, suicide cars, and IEDs, building more and more and keeping them for the October fireworks show.
I read today where there are 8 IA battalions and only 2 US battalions in the Tal Afar fight. This is excellent news,over time this thing can’t help but go our way if we hang tough.
Lately,I have noted a serious decline in VBEIDS.
I fear the Z-Man is storing them up for the week of the vote. Hope I am wrong.
Concerning IED’s,the best thing we can do is buy South African military vehicles,those guys already been to this rodeo in the 80s. We already have bought several “Buffalos”,weird but effective vehicles.
Buffalo info:
http://www.defendamerica.mil/articles/sep2005/a090705la1.html
M, – your point is well taken. And as noted by others, the US being on the offensive actually reduces the number of the hostile casualty count.
icasualties.org, the moonbat site, tries to statistically lie in two ways.
1- non-hostile deaths (such as death from disease) is counted as a war casualty.
2- non-American MNF deaths are also counted as a casualty to the account of the US when averaged.
I have normalized the statistics for these two class of biases. After such normalization, the following trend appears (source icasualties.org):
year-month hostile US deaths per day
04-11 4.17
04-12 1.84
05-01 1.77
05-02 1.54
05-03 1.00
05-04 1.53
05-05 2.16
05-06 2.30
05-07 1.45
05-08 1.94 (2.39 if you include a single
IED event of 14 deaths on 8/03)
05-09 0.70 (extrapolated from data to 9/10/05)
As can be seen, we dont yet have a secular trend, even though the trend is hopeful. However, a “honeymoon” period has started where the insurgency has been put on the defensive due to US and Iraqi forces going on the offensive, and also the Sunnis deciding to register for the elections. We see evidence of another (post-election) honeymoon period in last February, March, and April.
Also note that the prevalence of IEDs and car bombs makes the statistic exaggerate the level of hostilities and the conflict in general. The proportion of IED/car bomb has increased from 21% in October 2004 to 57% in August 2005 and to 100% in September. This has the effect of exaggerating the popularity of the insurgency among the Sunnis. A popular revolt should most likely result in an increase in fire fights and not IEDs and suicide bombing.
It is expected that as the Iraqi Forces increasingly become the “frontend” to the MNF’s anti-insurgency, the MNF casualty rate will continue to decrease. If September holds, the moonbats will have a hard time claiming that there is no end to the war in sight. Of course this will not stop the pacifascists from finding another excuse to condemn the democratization of the Middle East.
Patrick, yes Z-Man is almost certainly storing up the VBEIDS for the week of the vote. And, I don’t mind one bit for three reasons.
1. The Sunnis want to vote big time in the Referendum and they will never forgive Z-Man if he kills alot of them trying to vote.
2. It will get the media to focus on Iraq the week of the Constitutional Referendum.
3. I really want Z-Man to blow his wad in mid October leaving far fewer VBEIDS for the December elections, which will matter by far the most.
“The cities and towns along the Euphrates ratline are specifically singled out for future attention; “We tell our people in Ramadi, Samarra, Rawah and Qaim that we are coming ”
Actually, Samarra is on the Tigris river in Salahddin province.
The 3 provences with the highest insurgent activity are Anbar, Salahaddin and Nivnawa. Looks like there are now enough forces to give all 3 special attention.
cjr,
I wondered why Rawa,Qaim,Ramadi and Sammara got mentioned in the same sentence in a briefing about Tal Afar.(I also wondered why Haditha wasn’t mentioned)
The current Radius(as reported by CNN some time ago) for Baghdad based Iraqi security forces is 60 KM from the center of Bagdhad. Sammarra and Ramadi are both 100KM from the center of Baghdad.
(Oil spot theory, start from the center of Baghdad,establish good security, as troops gain strength and experience slowly expand the circle)
Tal Afar,Rawa and Qaim are all border cities.(Start with the largest border “safe haven”, once secure, peel off excess troops, move on to smaller border safe havens)
First group to get to Haditha Dam wins!!!
TJM, I guess those civillians who refused to leave Tall Afar so that they could help the terrorists, and had their homes battered down, will now have to wait until the terrorists are eliminated so that the pipelines can reopen so that oil can be exported and sold – before they can be paid compensation. Is it not so?
Funny for people who blow up pipelines to claim compensation and entitlement to the exported oil revenues. Something strangely ironic about such claims.
TJM,
The 3rd Armored Cavalry Regiment(The US unit in Tall Afar) is not “Marines”. Sounds like someone dusted off Fallujah reports and just replaced Fallujah with Tal Afar.
Soldier dad:
Just a guess: these 4 cities were singled out because they happen to be each next on the list to be “Tel Afar’ed”. They are each cities with big insurgent activity
On the question of IED’s, the answer is simple. Pound the pavement. Boots on ground day both day and night.
I think that we all can agree that the insurgents know better than to tangle with a dismounted soldier, let alone a squad plus. Coupled with the fact that they are also fighting a war of lies and propaganda. What’s better than a poster of a destroyed or burning HMMWV or Bradley? That being said attacks on dismounted soldiers have been just to the right of none.
The coalition would have to send out IED finding patrols along the MSR’s and ASR’s all across the theater of operations in order for this to have a wide spread effect. Random times also key. This doesnt require extra troops just a change in some unit tactics. Once the insurgents realize that their IED’s are being found and their risk is not worth the reward, they’ll stop. Of course they’ll move onto something else but we are America’s fighting forces… what do the have that we cannot defeat?!?
Is this dangerous? Yes. However, once you set your security and your conditions, your set up for success. Does this work? Yes, take my word.
On the question of IED’s, the answer is simple. Pound the pavement. Boots on ground day both day and night.
I think that we all can agree that the insurgents know better than to tangle with a dismounted soldier, let alone a squad plus. Coupled with the fact that they are also fighting a war of lies and propaganda. What’s better than a poster of a destroyed or burning HMMWV or Bradley? That being said attacks on dismounted soldiers have been just to the right of none.
The coalition would have to send out IED finding patrols along the MSR’s and ASR’s all across the theater of operations in order for this to have a wide spread effect. Random times also key. This doesnt require extra troops just a change in some unit tactics. Once the insurgents realize that their IED’s are being found and their risk is not worth the reward, they’ll stop. Of course they’ll move onto something else but we are America’s fighting forces… what do the have that we cannot defeat?!?
Is this dangerous? Yes. However, once you set your security and your conditions, your set up for success. Does this work? Yes, take my word.
On the question of IED’s, the answer is simple. Pound the pavement. Boots on ground day both day and night.
I think that we all can agree that the insurgents know better than to tangle with a dismounted soldier, let alone a squad plus. Coupled with the fact that they are also fighting a war of lies and propaganda. What’s better than a poster of a destroyed or burning HMMWV or Bradley? That being said attacks on dismounted soldiers have been just to the right of none.
The coalition would have to send out IED finding patrols along the MSR’s and ASR’s all across the theater of operations in order for this to have a wide spread effect. Random times also key. This doesnt require extra troops just a change in some unit tactics. Once the insurgents realize that their IED’s are being found and their risk is not worth the reward, they’ll stop. Of course they’ll move onto something else but we are America’s fighting forces… what do the have that we cannot defeat?!?
Is this dangerous? Yes. However, once you set your security and your conditions, your set up for success. Does this work? Yes, take my word.
TJM, Iraq is a rich vountry. It has 13 trillion dollars of oil resources. It can always get a loan from the international community by pledging oil revenue.
The question is that why should people who blow up oil pipelines, then complain about lack of compensation?
Why should the Iraqi government owe them anything, if they are actively destroying Iraq and fighting the government?